Orioles "Appear to be the Leading team of interest" to Get Samardzija

[joedogg9999]

We dont have any starters that can even make it through 5 anymore without giving up 5 runs . Id say Samardjiza SIGNIFICANTLy upgrades this patheric rotation

[joedogg9999]

Tell me how again this is a "very marginal upgrade".

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2014&month=0&season1=2014&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=3254%2c9492

I never said that Norris was better than Samardjiza. But trading norrir for Samardijza to upgrade your rotation makes absolutely no sense when youre throwing in a top pitching prospect as well. Adding him to a rotation that already includes norris makes sense.

[WEAVERMAN]

http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2014/05/28/the-orioles-are-in-the-lead-in-the-jeff-samardzija-sweepstakes/?ocid=Yahoo&partner=ya5nbcs

All this publicity probably means someone else will grab Long Hair, fine by me.

[WEAVERMAN]

I don't see why the rebuilding Cubs would be interested in Norris.

They've been rebuilding for 106 years.

[Tryptamine]

They've been rebuilding for 106 years.

They have Baez and Bryant, who are both top 10 specs in the game, plus Alcantara ,who is a top 100 spec, ready to join the squad in 2015. They should be a fun team next year.

[Roll Tide]

Based on his peripherals, he is a 7.6 fWAR as a starter the past 2 1/3 years. It's a peripheral based argument/value, not an ERA based argument.

You don't like peripherals and like ERA, then fine. Just understand and acknowledge the data and the argument and cease with these senseless comments about "i don't understand why anyone would want somebody with a X.XX ERA"

For example, Say you dismiss peripheral stats are sticking with ERA.

Not picking on you Johnny, you were just the last one.

Fine ..but I'm not really interested in 2014 stats...you can see what Davis is actually worth a year later. I think he's more likely the pitcher from 2013-2014 than the guy that is pitching this year. His 2.8 war so far this year is not in line with his career stats. He good ...but I'd prefer to our team invest in offensive upgrades ...because they continue to struggle to score runs.

[WEAVERMAN]

They have Baez and Bryant, who are both top 10 specs in the game, plus Alcantara ,who is a top 100 spec, ready to join the squad in 2015. They should be a fun team next year.

They have no SP on horizon, we don't need to help them out. Theo and Jed are in big trouble. Let them sink Duquette.

[Jonesy10]

If we get Samardzija, I wouldn't be opposed to moving Norris to the pen... Yeah he's been good to start this year but I think when all is said and done he finishes with the highest ERA on the staff (excluding Tillman and Jimenez who will not be moved to the pen).

[Jonesy10]

Oh, and I am all for getting Samardzija, as long as he doesn't replace Gonzo. He's pitched way too well these past 2 seasons to be moved to the pen IMO. He was also money in the playoffs and has the highest upside out of he, Norris, and Chen while also being the steadiest as well, IMO.

[DrungoHazewood]

Tell me how again this is a "very marginal upgrade".

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2014&month=0&season1=2014&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=3254%2c9492

Even if he continues to pitch to a ~3.00 FIP it's hard to imagine him being worth more than 3-4 wins over the remaining 2/3rds of the season. So if the O's are a .500 team now, they're an 84 or 85 win team with an overachieving Samardzija. If he regresses to the 4.00+ ERA guy he's been previously (say, three months ago) then he's probably less than a win better than the O's collection of 4th starters.

[pdiddy]

Even if he continues to pitch to a ~3.00 FIP it's hard to imagine him being worth more than 3-4 wins over the remaining 2/3rds of the season. So if the O's are a .500 team now, they're an 84 or 85 win team with an overachieving Samardzija. If he regresses to the 4.00+ ERA guy he's been previously (say, three months ago) then he's probably less than a win better than the O's collection of 4th starters.

I think as big of an issue is if he can go later in games (and really the rest of the staff to some extent). The bully is going to crumble if the starters keep doing this to them.

[DrungoHazewood]

I think as big of an issue is if he can go later in games (and really the rest of the staff to some extent). The bully is going to crumble if the starters keep doing this to them.

Doing what to them? Having the starters pitch more innings per start than the Blue Jays, Rays, Yanks, and equal to the Red Sox?

[MrOrange82]

Even if he continues to pitch to a ~3.00 FIP it's hard to imagine him being worth more than 3-4 wins over the remaining 2/3rds of the season. So if the O's are a .500 team now, they're an 84 or 85 win team with an overachieving Samardzija. If he regresses to the 4.00+ ERA guy he's been previously (say, three months ago) then he's probably less than a win better than the O's collection of 4th starters.

I hate arguments like that, because they're deceptive at best. It's not about what the Orioles look like right this second. It's about what you think they'll look like in August and September, and how far, if at all, they'll be out of the playoff race. 3-4 wins could be huge in the AL East this year. Or it could be a non-factor for a team that's too flawed to play in the postseason. That's just the predictive math that the FO will have to work through.

As for the (somewhat conflated) FIP and ERA numbers you bring up, his FIP this season is 2.78, not ~3.00. His FIP last year was 3.77 over 213.2 innings, and 3.55 over 174.2 innings the year before. Right now, Chen (3.75) is the only two O's starter with a FIP below 4.22. Last season, no Oriole pitcher who made at least 10 starts had a FIP below 4.04 (Chen again...followed by Feldman at 4.13 and Tillman at 4.42). In 2012, Jason Hammel was the only pitcher with 10 or more starts and a FIP under 4.05.

Bottom line, Samardzija is likely better-to-significantly better than every single other pitcher the O's have right now...and where he falls on that spectrum in the eyes of the FO is what determines whether he's a viable trade target. How much would you give up to trade for Tillman right now? And before you immediately sprint to "cheap years of control," let's imagine that Tillman's contract status is identical to Samardzija's. Put another way, if Tillman is the Orioles supposed "ace" (i.e., he of the FIP greater than 4.42 dating back to last season), what would Samardzija be?

[pdiddy]

Doing what to them? Having the starters pitch more innings per start than the Blue Jays, Rays, Yanks, and equal to the Red Sox?

Relative performance is one thing, but we can't ignore the absolute performance. It probably won't bode well for them either.

[ExileAngelos]

. Put another way, if Tillman is the Orioles supposed "ace" (i.e., he of the FIP greater than 4.42 dating back to last season), what would Samardzija be?

A co-ace? Pocket aces!! Championship...