Orioles "Appear to be the Leading team of interest" to Get Samardzija

[Tryptamine]

Could be right. I think they hope to move Samardzija for at least a mid-rotation-arm-to-be and maybe one that projects to back-end or shut down in the pen. Cut a pre-draft deal for someone like Aaron Nola and package Baez, Vogelbach, and a couple other guys for another potential mid-rotation to front-end guy. Open up the checkbook for a FA or two and all of the sudden it's a stout rotation to go with a cheap, upside offense.

Explain to me again why the Cubs would trade a top 5 prospect in baseball who is a month or two away from being MLB ready for a middle of the rotation arm?

[Stotle]

It's amazing we have so many people who knew the Jiminez signing was bad when 94% on here thought it was good at the time. Must have been a glitch in the OH poll data.

I don't remember if I was posting at the time, but I think I've been pretty clear as to my thoughts, including the idea that his performance probably won't make the actual price look that bad.

[weams]

My problem after looking is that Samardzija is that he's a 4.00 era pitcher over the past two full season in the national league and averages 6 2/3 per start.

Question for those welcoming a trade....is a 4.40 ish era and 6 2/3 innings be worth giving up even our second tier guys like Wright and Erod? Is he really much better than whomever you bump?

6 and 2/3rds is great. And yes, he would be better than what we have. I would give up second tier. In a heartbeat.

[MrOrange82]

It's amazing we have so many people who knew the Jiminez signing was bad when 94% on here thought it was good at the time. Must have been a glitch in the OH poll data.

For the record, I still think the signing was a good one. Not going to do an about-face at the end of the second month of a four year deal.

And don't worry...it'll only take 2-3 good starts in a row before people start singing Jimenez's praises and thanking the almighty for his long-term connection to the team.

[weams]

I don't remember if I was posting at the time, but I think I've been pretty clear as to my thoughts, including the idea that his performance probably won't make the actual price look that bad.

Remember. I'm the guy who says we need to upgrade the Gonzalez and Chen slots.

[CA-ORIOLE]

Good Grief? Nice ..... His war the last two seasons according to BBref pitching values 2.8 games. I know he is off to a hot start and perhaps is coming into his own. Again even if their is no era diff he's a 6 2/3 pitcher with a 4 ERA.

Based on his peripherals, he is a 7.6 fWAR as a starter the past 2 1/3 years. It's a peripheral based argument/value, not an ERA based argument.

You don't like peripherals and like ERA, then fine. Just understand and acknowledge the data and the argument and cease with these senseless comments about "i don't understand why anyone would want somebody with a X.XX ERA"

For example, Say you dismiss peripheral stats are sticking with ERA.

Not picking on you Johnny, you were just the last one.

[webbrick2010]

6 and 2/3rds is great. And yes, he would be better than what we have. I would give up second tier. In a heartbeat.

I'd give up first tier.

I ask this question every time these discussions happen

When was the last time the O's drafted and developed even a #5 starter?

Heck Matusz was a first round pick who no one would have traded and now he is lucky to get thru an inning pitching against only left handed batters.

There is little reason to believe Gausman, Bundy, or Harvey will ever be as good as Sm??? is right now.

[weams]

Based on his peripherals, he is a 7.6 fWAR as a starter the past 2 1/3 years. It's a peripheral argument/value, not an ERA argument.

You don't like peripherals and like ERA, then fine. Just understand and acknowledge the data and the argument and cease with these senseless comments about "i don't understand why we'd want somebody with a X.XX ERA"

For example, Say you dismiss peripheral stats are sticking with ERA.

I think he is a fine starter. I just am very certain that the top end of our minor league pitching is not expendable for a year and a half rental. Gausman alone would not have to do too much to echo that peripheral fWAR as a starter under his years of control.

[weams]

I'd give up first tier.

I ask this question every time these discussions happen

When was the last time the O's drafted and developed even a #5 starter?

Heck Matusz was a first round pick who no one would have traded and now he is lucky to get thru an inning pitching against only left handed batters.

There is little reason to believe Gausman, Bundy, or Harvey will ever be as good as Sm??? is right now.

I am not surprised that we disagree.

[Stotle]

Explain to me again why the Cubs would trade a top 5 prospect in baseball who is a month or two away from being MLB ready for a middle of the rotation arm?

There is a fair amount of space between Baez's upside and his floor, which is why I put a range between mid-rotation and front-end arm.

[CA-ORIOLE]

I think he is a fine starter. I just am very certain that the top end of our minor league pitching is not expendable for a year and a half rental. Gausman alone would not have to do too much to echo that peripheral fWAR as a starter under his years of control.

I'm not seeing how Gausman could eat innings and/or be very successful as a starter at this point or anytime in the near future. Not from what I have seen of him. I also have doubt about his long term success as a starter. Not doubt there are plus tools there.

[joedogg9999]

Agree with every single word of this. Further, I don't like Samardzija at all. He's nothing special and I wouldn't swap any of our top 4 pitching prospects for him... and it would likely take two of them... and I don't think ERod is MLB material.

This franchise has been desperately waiting for many years to develop a TOR. It hasn't and now many of our top position players could be on their way out of here. I like DD but I don't love this roster and have real concerns it could get worse. He needs to start working some creative trades. Hardy will be out of here in four months and we'll get nothing for him. Same as they did with JJ. We can't keep wasting assets like that.

You wouldnt swap any of our 4 top prospects for him? Erod isnt MLB material? You are essentially saying you wouldnt give up a minor leaguer for a proven MLB starter with 5 pitches, most of them plus pitches, and is just now coming into his own. Really??? You should give up gausman and erod in a heartbeat for a guy like that. You should give up two totally unproven minor leaguers of this caliber for a player of Samarjdizas caliber any day.

Its rare for even the highest rated pitching prospects to become ToR quality. Its VERY likely that even someone like gausman or bundy EVER amount to a player the quality of Samardjiza, and im not even claiming Jeff to be am ace. Its just that hard to actually make it. The only thing that should make Dan Duquette hesitate for even a second with this deal would be the fact the gug only has 1.5 years remaining on his contracr.

[MrOrange82]

I think he is a fine starter. I just am very certain that the top end of our minor league pitching is not expendable for a year and a half rental. Gausman alone would not have to do too much to echo that peripheral fWAR as a starter under his years of control.

Less than half a season via the trading deadline is a rental. A full year and a half is a starter house.

[LookitsPuck]

Try reading the thread.

I did, there aren't any compelling arguments. He's pitching in the NL. Prior to this year he had an ERA > 4. His ERA+ was 97. Yes, his peripherals are good (SO, BB) but overall he's nothing special. We'd be acquiring another middle tier pitcher...unless you buy into the idea that he's a TOR based on 11 starts.

[CA-ORIOLE]

I did, there aren't any compelling arguments. He's pitching in the NL. Prior to this year he had an ERA > 4. His ERA+ was 97. Yes, his peripherals are good (SO, BB) but overall he's nothing special. We'd be acquiring another middle tier pitcher...unless you buy into the idea that he's a TOR based on 11 starts.

His peripherals are very good for a starter. Maybe not "special", maybe not "TOR" but i think another poster just pointed them out as in the top 1/3 for starters (last 2.33 years) and he eats innings per start on top of that.

Sounds you like ERA and dismiss peripheral statistics, or don't see much value in them.

I disagree that a 7.6 fWAR in 2 1/3 seasons isn't compelling, but thanks.