J.J. Hardy would like to stay, but 'everything changes' in free agency

[weams]

There's some risk, I don't deny it. Still, the guy has been far above average each of the last four years. For me, that's a risk worth taking, so long as the dollar value of the contract has a sufficient discount from current value (he's been worth about $17 mm/yr per fangraphs) to warrant taking the risk.

I might add that I would feel otherwise if we weren't a serious contender. I am not anxious to break up a winning formula.

I would love to keep J.J. the number is 12 and the years are three.

[Babypowder]

There's some risk, I don't deny it. Still, the guy has been far above average each of the last four years. For me, that's a risk worth taking, so long as the dollar value of the contract has a sufficient discount from current value (he's been worth about $17 mm/yr per fangraphs) to warrant taking the risk.

I might add that I would feel otherwise if we weren't a serious contender. I am not anxious to break up a winning formula.

I don't think anyone is anxious to break this up, however I hope our front office can separate these emotions from these decisions and negotiations. Otherwise....Phillies.

[Frobby]

I would love to keep J.J. the number is 12 and the years are three.

I think that's the ballpark. I think JJ might get more on the open market, but that may be enough to keep him in Baltimore, if he values playing here (which he seems to).

[Frobby]

I don't think anyone is anxious to break this up, however I hope our front office can separate these emotions from these decisions and negotiations. Otherwise....Phillies.

I don't like that analogy, because the Phillies were much older than the current Orioles. Their 2012 offense averaged 31.1 years old, and virtually all of their key players were older than that. The current O's have two offensive players that old (Cruz and Hardy). I trust DD to not be overly emotional, but not blindly divest every good player who "is on the wrong side of 30."

[waroriole]

Do we get a better deal after he has the QO attached than we would have in the spring?

[weams]

Do we get a better deal after he has the QO attached than we would have in the spring?

You would think so. The Pick has to be worth 6 million. So if he was wanting 52, then he would get 46.

[weams]

I think so. His value is lower, IMO, than it was in the spring. Supply and demand. I think there will be more supply for SS than demand this winter. I suspect Ramierz and Cabrera are move both attractive to the Yankees than Hardy. I'm not sure who else, willing to spend, is out there.

He did not hit for power this year and the back issue has crept into everyone's mind.

[weams]

I think so. His value is lower, IMO, than it was in the spring. Supply and demand. I think there will be more supply for SS than demand this winter. I suspect Ramierz and Cabrera are move both attractive to the Yankees than Hardy. I'm not sure who else, willing to spend, is out there.

I wonder if Stephen Drew had malpractice insurance on his agent?

[weams]

Value at an all time low. I wouldn't be shocked to see him in an O's uniform on a cheap, one year, bounce back candidate contract.

Me either. Around four million probably.

[CA-ORIOLE]

Value at an all time low. I wouldn't be shocked to see him in an O's uniform on a cheap, one year, bounce back candidate contract.

Exactly. I was thinking the same thing.

[weams]

Me either. Around four million probably.

See. Those guys who hold out to the spring to sign? They do not go to a gym other than for light cardio. Until they pass their physicals. They always have poor years after that. Cruz is the outlier. And he had motivation to make good after last year's fiasco. Like Melky did the year before.

[Can_of_corn]

Me either. Around four million probably.

You think that much?

I was thinking 2.5.

[weams]

You think that much?

I was thinking 2.5.

That is only half a WAR. He should be worth that.

[Frobby]

I think so. His value is lower, IMO, than it was in the spring. Supply and demand. I think there will be more supply for SS than demand this winter. I suspect Ramierz and Cabrera are move both attractive to the Yankees than Hardy. I'm not sure who else, willing to spend, is out there.

I'm not so sure Hardy's value is lower. He's been worth about 3.5 WAR this year. Signing him in the spring meant taking a risk that he really fell off the table in 2014 or had some catastrophic injury this season. Now that he has put up yet another very good season, there is less risk, though his back issues may introduce some doubts that weren't there before. I don't think JJ's lack of homers this season will hurt him much because his overall value has been steady.

[Can_of_corn]

That is only half a WAR. He should be worth that.

It is possible to be less then worthless.

He is at -.4 right now (rWAR)