Will Markakis sign with the O's before the FA signing begin? (Option Declined)

[Birdfan21]

That's ridiculous. 3/39 plus a pick for Nick?

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2014/10/free-agent-profile-nick-markakis.html

They make a decent case for it. 13/year is probably a bit much.

[atomic]

RHP/LHP - 811 / 777

http://minorleaguecentral.com/player?pid=518953&split=3000&type=batter

Yeah but he played in the Pacific Coast League. His number are pretty bad for that league. Look at his team in 2012 and see how he is near the bottom of his team for OPS and he was 26. Sorry he isn't a major league quality ball player. He will be 29 next year so he isn't getting any better.

[birrman54]

His OPS difference was 70 points different between left-handers and right-handers. You take away the negative and it would definitely rise. Lough isn't a major league player IMHO. And I think the opinion of the team as well. Hence the De Aza trade. He is as good as gone.

Unless Nick's value when facing LHP negative I don't see how his WAR would increase with fewer at bats.

[birrman54]

Yeah but he played in the Pacific Coast League. His number are pretty bad for that league. Look at his team in 2012 and see how he is near the bottom of his team for OPS and he was 26. Sorry he isn't a major league quality ball player. He will be 29 next year so he isn't getting any better.

I'm not arguing David Lough should be the everyday player or that he's actually capable of hitting MLB LHP. I was simply providing the actual data in response to someone's question.

I'm arguing at 200 PA he's underutilized, and he would have a positive contribution if that number were raised.

[atomic]

Unless Nick's value when facing LHP negative I don't see how his WAR would increase with fewer at bats.

His OPS is in the 600's against left handers. That has to be negative WAR for a corner outfielder.

[birrman54]

There is no chance we give him a qualifying offer as that would be the same thing as picking up his option.

It would give Nick the option to try and get an extension from someone rather than just take the 1 year deal. Similar to what Cruz and other players had to decided.

From a financial point of view they appear similar but there are several scenarios.

1) Orioles picked up Nick's option. ( Total paid, 17.5M)

2) Orioles buyout Nick's option and offer QO which he accepts (Total Paid 17.3M)

3) Orioles buyout Nick's option and offer QO which he declines (Total paid 2M - receive compensation pick)

4) Orioles buyout Nick's option and don't offer QO (Total paid 2M)

If the Orioles are willing to risk 2 to possibly get the compensation pick, then it makes sense to offer the QO. If the Orioles are absolutely unwilling to pay that much for 1 year of Nick then it won't happen.

[Guest]

[atomic]

I'm not arguing David Lough should be the everyday player or that he's actually capable of hitting MLB LHP. I was simply providing the actual data in response to someone's question.

I'm arguing at 200 PA he's underutilized, and he would have a positive contribution if that number were raised.

His numbers would only be worse. When playing most everyday he was terrible. He is a bad ballplayer. Buck didn't want to play him anymore. He got one at bat in the post-season. He might be better in a stadium like KC has with the big outfield but KC unloaded him for nothing. We started winning when he stopped playing during the season.

[atomic]

It would give Nick the option to try and get an extension from someone rather than just take the 1 year deal. Similar to what Cruz and other players had to decided.

From a financial point of view they appear similar but there are several scenarios.

1) Orioles picked up Nick's option. ( Total paid, 17.5M)

2) Orioles buyout Nick's option and offer QO which he accepts (Total Paid 17.3M)

3) Orioles buyout Nick's option and offer QO which he declines (Total paid 2M - receive compensation pick)

4) Orioles buyout Nick's option and don't offer QO (Total paid 2M)

If the Orioles are willing to risk 2 to possibly get the compensation pick, then it makes sense to offer the QO. If the Orioles are absolutely unwilling to pay that much for 1 year of Nick then it won't happen.

You don't offer Nick the qualifying offer unless you want him to play for the team as most likely he would accept QO. If you want him to play for the team you pay the extra 200k to see he plays on the team.

[birrman54]

His OPS is in the 600's against left handers. That has to be negative WAR for a corner outfielder.

His sOPS+ vs LHP was 93, so moderately below average vs LHP for his position. His defense graded well this year, so it's hard to know exactly how much it would affect his valuation in those situations.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.cgi?id=markani01&year=2014&t=b

[Guest]

Markakis is a awful fielder. With a pitch to contact staff this isn't a good mix. UZR+ DRS number don't lie. A Good GM knows when it's time to move on from a aging player.

[AlbionHero]

His OPS difference was 70 points different between left-handers and right-handers. You take away the negative and it would definitely rise. Lough isn't a major league player IMHO. And I think the opinion of the team as well. Hence the De Aza trade. He is as good as gone.

If only one of those two guys are here, I'd put me bet on Lough. De Aza is a non tender candidate since he'll be paid 5 million plus while Lough will only be about 500k. I have no doubt Lough stays here next year.

[LoyalBirdFan]

You don't offer Nick the qualifying offer unless you want him to play for the team as most likely he would accept QO. If you want him to play for the team you pay the extra 200k to see he plays on the team.

:agree: The union would have a field day with this. Changes would be made and that's assuming that process hasn't already started. The QO is there for a reason and this exploits it at the expense of the player.

[birrman54]

If only one of those two guys are here, I'd put me bet on Lough. De Aza is a non tender candidate since he'll be paid 5 million plus while Lough will only be about 500k. I have no doubt Lough stays here next year.

Not to mention De Aza has had basically 1 above average offensive season in his entire career and it was in 2011.

[Frobby]

I think Nick's durability, reliability and the example he sets are greatly underrated by many on this board. I'm not saying he's a must-sign, but I think he has a lot of value to this team. We'll see what Dan Duquette thinks.