Will Markakis sign with the O's before the FA signing begin? (Option Declined)

[weams]

MLBTR just did their free agent preview for Markakis. Their FA contract prediction is 3/39 (if given a QO), 4/48 if not.

I think that screams for a Qualifying offer then.

[monarchO]

No. He is a second tier free agent. I think he comes back to us on a fair deal; 9 MM over 3/4 years maybe. But it will take some time maybe not until Christmas after we and others make the big deals.

[brianod]

Nick is slow, clogs the bases and has below average range. He has little power. Just looked on a website that ranks rfs for 2014 and he was the 21st best rf. Sorry, but I think it's time to move on unless he's willing to take a very large home town discount

[El Gordo]

I think Nick's durability, reliability and the example he sets are greatly underrated by many on this board. I'm not saying he's a must-sign, but I think he has a lot of value to this team. We'll see what Dan Duquette thinks.

I think we'll see what Buck and PA think as well.

[wildcard]

Markakis is a awful fielder. With a pitch to contact staff this isn't a good mix. UZR+ DRS number don't lie. A Good GM knows when it's time to move on from a aging player.

Its not Nick's age or defense that bothers me about giving him a 3 year contract. Its his hitting production over the last two years.

[Sanfran327]

I've seen multiple people over the past few days suggest De Aza as the '15 Orioles leadoff hitter. Why? 2012 is the only time he's ever looked like a MLB leadoff hitter. This year he had a .314 OBP, last year a .323. Against lefties his career OBP is .311. And his SB% is below break-even, he costs the team runs every time he attempts a steal. And... he's 3rd-year arb eligible and will make something like $5-6M. To me he looks like a relatively expensive platoon player who is a so-so leadoff hitter solely against righties.

So that tells me it's about time to start looking for fat corner infielders and DHs.

Lack of a better option, I guess. I don't necessarily think he's an ideal solution, but I don't think he'd kill us there, either.

[MrOrange82]

I've said it before, but might as well add it here: I'd be absolutely shocked if Nick finds himself playing for a new/different team in 2015. I also think he'll be re-signed by the O's for years/money that many people (myself included) will not like.

[El Gordo]

If they don't sign Nick I can see them signing someone like Gomes or Cuddyer to add to the mix of Lough/Pearce, Jones and DeAza.

[AlbionHero]

I've said it before, but might as well add it here: I'd be absolutely shocked if Nick finds himself playing for a new/different team in 2015. I also think he'll be re-signed by the O's for years/money that many people (myself included) will not like.

Well if he is back, you're right that he'll be far overpaid. I'm seeing the 40-50 guaranteed money number being thrown around various places when projecting his salary. Thats waaaay too much.

[DrungoHazewood]

Well if he is back, you're right that he'll be far overpaid. I'm seeing the 40-50 guaranteed money number being thrown around various places when projecting his salary. Thats waaaay too much.

Contract projections are just guesses. It's not hard to see that, outside of his injury/whatever year, he's a 2-win player. That's $12M per. He's 30, and seems like an old 30. In a purely objective way you'd pay him for 2, 1.5, 1, and 0.5 wins over four years (or lop off the last year). That's 3/27 or 4/30 or something like that. It would be (at least for me) unusual and surprising if a player with his track record wildly deviated from that kind of back-of-the-napkin estimate. I have to think a total contract value of $40M is near a ceiling.

As much as I like Nick, he's a corner outfielder with so-so range, a sub-.400 SLG, and less than a walk every ten PAs.

[wildcard]

Here is Roch's take on Nick:

I

keep writing that the Orioles won't pick up Nick Markakis' $17.5 million option in 2015, but they will attempt to sign him to a multi-year extension. He wants to stay, his family wants to stay, Showalter wants to keep him, ownership loves him. It shouldn't be complicated

.

http://www.masnsports.com/school-of-roch/2014/10/decisions-looming-on-key-contributors.html

Maybe it will not be complicated but if they don't agree on the number of years it could be. With Nick's production over the last two years DD may not want to go three or four years. On Nick's side the FA market may offer him 3 or 4 years. That could complicate things.

[mdbdotcom]

Nick's stats as a leadoff hitter can be a little deceptive. Among AL leadoff hitters with at least 400 plate appearances (PA), he ranked 3rd in both OBP (.339) and runs scored (78). But Nick also had more PA (681) than any other leadoff hitter. In terms of PA, Nick scored less frequently than of the other AL leadoff hitters with at least 400 PA with the exception of Shin-Soo Choo.

The following shows how many PA each leadoff hitter averaged between runs scored (PA/R). The lower the number the better.

Markakis - 8.73

Reyes - 6.94

Eaton - 7.07

Crisp - 7.95

Gardner - 7.22

Calhoun - 5.69

Bourn - 8.49

Aoki - 8.58

Holt - 6.85

Choo - 9.53

Nick no longer hits doubles and he doesn't steal bases. Though he gets on base, it takes two more successful AB to drive him in. If they do re-sign him, IMO it should not be to lead off.

[theobird]

Nick's stats as a leadoff hitter can be a little deceptive. Among AL leadoff hitters with at least 400 plate appearances (PA), he ranked 3rd in both OBP (.339) and runs scored (78). But Nick also had more PA (681) than any other leadoff hitter. In terms of PA, Nick scored less frequently than of the other AL leadoff hitters with at least 400 PA with the exception of Shin-Soo Choo.

The following shows how many PA each leadoff hitter averaged between runs scored (PA/R). The lower the number the better.

Markakis - 8.73

Reyes - 6.94

Eaton - 7.07

Crisp - 7.95

Gardner - 7.22

Calhoun - 5.69

Bourn - 8.49

Aoki - 8.58

Holt - 6.85

Choo - 9.53

Nick no longer hits doubles and he doesn't steal bases. Though he gets on base, it takes two more successful AB to drive him in. If they do re-sign him, IMO it should not be to lead off.

Nick has been hitting leadoff by default. There just is nobody on the roster that would be as good as him in the lead off spot. To me, he is a perfect #2 hitter. We need a legit leadoff man, and imo we also need to make every effort to resign Nick. This board does not appreciate what a solid all around player he is, because we all thought he was going to be a superstar. He is not. He should not be paid like one either, and he has been overpaid. But he is the toughest out on the team, the best OBP man we have. What we really need is a good high OBP leadoff hitter with some wheels and drop Nick down to the two hole. And we have to drop Adam Jones down to the 5 spot.

[El Gordo]

Which is the better OF: De Aza/Gomes, Jones, Pearce/Lough, or De Aza/Pearce, Jones and Nick?

[clapdiddy]

Which is the better OF: De Aza/Gomes, Jones, Pearce/Lough, or De Aza/Pearce, Jones and Nick?

Give me #1, please. I think those platoons could really be productive, though Jones will need his running shoes when we face a left-handed pitcher!