Fly On The Wall

[weams]

A one year wonder who had 162 game averages of roughly 35 homers and 105 RBI during his time in Texas.

Look, I understand there's people here who have media credentials or some connection to Orioles/MASN people and those people read this board, but it's okay to be critical sometimes, and right now people have every right to be.

Again, I don't advocate breaking the bank every single offseason, but barring special circumstances (Cruz for example), you're probably gonna have to pay more than fair value if you want to acquire an above average player via trade or free agency. It's the harsh reality of baseball in it's current state.

I think it is very right to be critical when the Orioles lose more games than they win. Or even when they miss the playoffs. Yes. I believe in criticism.

[DrinkinWithFermi]

Orioles record on August 31 (without Kelly Johnson): 79-56 (.585)

Orioles record in September (with Kelly Johnson): 17-10 (.630)

"Pfft. You can prove anything with facts."

[24fps]

O's are toast next year if Kelly Johnson doesn't come back

It gets even worse. The Orioles were 34-22 (.647) when Delmon started and now the guy can't even get a measly second year. Is DD trying to punt the season or what? It smells like something the Blue Jays put him up to.

[weams]

To me I would have put every effort into resigning Miller. I don't think people realize what a luxury it was to have him in there. Really shortened the game, and if need be, he could even become the closer in year 2 or 3. He was worth EVERY penny imo. Losing him will cost the team 5-6 wins next year imo.

That is almost impossible with a reliever that will pitch 70 innings max. You do realize that right?

In his greatest season ever he was 1.8 WAR.

[weams]

Andrew Miller over 60 innings gave up 14 runs last year. Tommy Hunter over 60 innings gave up 20 runs last year.

Theres a 6 run difference over the course of the entire season between the two. Thats miniscule.

And that is with both of them facing right handers and left handers.

[weams]

I'm not sure I get this. Miller was outstanding, but he wasn't exactly a guy who ate up multiple innings. With the Orioles, only 3 times in his 23 regular season appearances did he pitch more than one inning. His high was 1.2 innings.

The Orioles can easily find a pitcher to pitch as many innings as Miller did. They just won't be as dominant.

It will not look nearly as cool. But I bet it can be done.

[weams]

Orioles record on July 31 (without Miller) 60-47 for a .561 win %

Orioles record after July 31 (with Miller) 36-19 for a .655 win %

If the O's kept their pre-Miller winning pct the entire year they would only have won 91 games. That's a 5 game difference right there.

Of course there were other reasons besides Miller the O's took off late in the season - other players getting hot, opposing teams laying down late in the season - but I think people are vastly undervaluing the contributions of Miller, Cruz, and Markakis.

The O's lost their best reliever, their best power hitter, and their best OBP guy; and replaced them with...... no one. Whatever fodder the O's trek out there is going to be a major step down.

I agree with Islandecho. The O's are so adverse to over-paying some guy in the last year or two of his contract that they refuse to reap the rewards of having that player in the front of his deal. Congratulations Orioles. We can all laugh at Seattle in 2017 when they are over paying Cruz. Or perhaps we'll laugh at Cruz next year when he only hits 30 bombs instead of 40.

We won't need to laugh at either of them. I think Cruz will do well. Paying an older DH like that usually only works for the Red Sox. And we know Ortiz has tested hot before. Cruz never did.

[weams]

I wonder why some fans seem to think that not making some splash in the

middle of December is a bad thing. Nick choose to go to the Braves. Cruz turned

down the O's QOffer. Miller was never going to be resigned. I liked Nick and Cruz.

They just wanted to move on from the O's. There is a lot of time for DD to make

the moves he needs for the O's. IMO

Cruz will work really hard to hit 30 home runs in 2015. Nick is having his spine fused. Miller is terribly fun to have. Maybe someday we will trade for him again. He was awfully fun.

[weams]

Where did I say he played 162 games a year? I was just pointing out that he was far from a one year wonder....even if you take the 162 game projections out and look at what he actually did, you'd see he clearly wasn't a one year wonder. Not to mention the guy hit a walk off homer to send the Rangers to the World Series, for crying out loud.

I like Cruz. He has averaged 97 games a season. And that is cheating, because I am counting Milwaukee.

These are his most comparable.

Richard Hidalgo (957)

Glenallen Hill (950)

Corey Hart (936)

Jay Bruce (932)

Ryan Ludwick (929)

Evan Longoria (927)

Wally Post (923)

Josh Hamilton (921)

Bob Horner (920)

Preston Wilson (919)

Similar Batters through 33

Gus Zernial (958)

Josh Willingham (937)

Phil Nevin (927)

Wally Post (924)

Josh Hamilton (921)

Jeromy Burnitz (915)

Henry Rodriguez (914)

Jayson Werth (913)

Marty Cordova (909)

Jim Lemon (90

[AlbionHero]

I like Cruz. He has averaged 97 games a season. And that is cheating, because I am counting Milwaukee.

These are his most comparable.

Richard Hidalgo (957)

Man, Richard Hidalgo once had a 44 homer/120 rbi season? Those steroid years were crazy.

[weams]

Those steroid years were crazy.

Cruz and Ortiz both enjoyed them as well. It's not a reason to hate Cruz. It's just a reason to be concerned about his aging arc. If playing clean.

[weams]

Man, Richard Hidalgo once had a 44 homer/120 rbi season? Those steroid years were crazy.

Cruz

Hall Of Fame StatisticsPlayer rank in (?)

Black Ink Batting - 4 (430), Average HOFer ≈ 27

Gray Ink Batting - 20 (1045), Average HOFer ≈ 144

Hall of Fame Monitor Batting - 28 (643), Likely HOFer ≈ 100

Hall of Fame Standards Batting - 15 (1121), Average HOFer ≈ 50

JAWS Right Field (135th), 16.6 career WAR/16.8 7yr-peak WAR/16.7 JAWS

Average HOF RF (out of 24) = 73.2 career WAR/42.9 7yr-peak WAR/58.1 JAWS

And he played in the PED era. Because he was suspended for it.

[TonySoprano]

Is DD trying to punt the season or what? It smells like something the Blue Jays put him up to.

If this is intended as a sarcastic joke, I'm not laughing. However, if you're even remotely serious then I really have to question your judgement.

[weams]

I'm not disputing that. All I was disputing was the one year wonder label. I've said a few times on here that I'd have begrudgingly given him that contract hit understand why they didn't. I really don't know what you're trying to argue.

I would have given the man that contract myself. With my heart. Not my head.

[weams]

If they had and we won the World Series next year, not a single soul would care if he was terrible the rest of the contract. That's my reasoning.

And I say that is not true. Everyone is all about the now.