Are we really smarter?

[TiredofLosing20]

I think it is more comforting, generally, to see a team taking actions because it is evidence that there is an actual plan. The perception, rightly or wrongly, when your signings take place in January/February is that you are less concerned with the particular player you get than you are the price of that player.

The counter is obviously if you don't like the players/cost of the big free agents then you simply aren't going to be involved. But exit payroll from 2014 and projected payroll for 2015 is irrelevant -- you have four months to move payroll via trade, and we see teams do that every year.

It doesn't make one response right or wrong, but it seems a little off base to act like fans are foolish to prefer they see their favorite team making proactive rooms indicative of a plan laid out for the off-season. Again, I'm not saying Baltimore doesn't have a plan, or that it's not a good plan. But the everyday fan can only go by the actions they see, no?

This. And that is magnified when you lose the HR leader, a long time O's favorite, and a stud setup guy.

[Frobby]

I fear this is 2013 all over again.

Based on what? There was a ton of evidence that the 2012 team greatly overperformed. That evidence simply doesn't exist with the 2014 team.

I know I fear another winning season too :eektf:

Kudos to both MurphDogg and terps19 for their responses. I'm glad we are now at the point where 2013 is considered a "bad" season!

That said, while the 2014 team didn't overperform in the same way that the 2012 team did, there's definitely room for slippage and losing a few good players while doing little to replace them is risky. Gun to my head, if you asked me today are the Orioles more likely to win 85 games or 96 games with the roster that exists now, I'd go with 85. I expect the O's to make some moves between now and Opening Day to improve the roster, but maybe not moves as high profile as Jimenez and Cruz were.

[MurphDogg]

Gun to my head, if you asked me today are the Orioles more likely to win 85 games or 96 games with the roster that exists now, I'd go with 85.

There isn't a team in the Majors that is more likely to win 96 games than 85 games. Just look at Fangraphs projections .

[waroriole]

"Clueless" is going a bit far don't you think?

I can acknowledge that DD and Buck have managed this team well the pat few years and we have had renewed success.

With that I also think it's naive not to acknowledge 2012 was crazy and we won more games than we certainly should have. 2013 we missed the playoffs, and yes this 2014 team was great and I loved every minute of it, but to what degree I'm not sure, but we greatly benefited from the early problems of the Rays. The Jays got hit by a meteor mid season, and the Yanks/Sox just weren't any good.

I'm not panicking or saying we won't be competitive, if I came off that way my mistake. This is a chat forum so pepper chat about a number of topics. I also don't think it's wrong to want a team that was close to the word series to replace production, prepare for the player losses next offseason and to dare to be better.

Fair enough, and if I wrongly placed you into the Chicken Little crowd, my apologies. I just haven't seen any moves that I think are much of a fit for us. Maybe LaRoche or Morse, but I don't like that Cruz contract, or the Kemp/Upton trades.

Did you have a specific move that you would've like to see us make?

[DrungoHazewood]

I fear this is 2013 all over again.

If a down year is a winning record that's good with me. When you're being outspent and out-revenued by 2:1 or more by direct competition and you still win more than you lose most years you're doing well.

[weams]

I'm not saying that we had to trade for or sign any of these big name guys, but if we don't make the playoffs next year and Weiters, Davis and Chen walk, will everyone still believe that our team is so much smarter?

Dan Duquette is as smart as they get. Is our strategy smart regardless of outcome? Of course not. The idea of playing to a window is just pure dumb though.

[AdamK]

Manager of the year.

Executive of the year.

I don't know how well the 2015 season will play out, but with all the factors involved with walk years I find comfort in the fact that DD and Buck are navigating it.

Let them do their thing. It's what they're great at.

[Ruzious]

This. And that is magnified when you lose the HR leader, a long time O's favorite, and a stud setup guy.

Particularly the HR leader. I haven't heard a plan to make up for his production - or even a good chunk of it. Great post by Stotle.

[weams]

This. And that is magnified when you lose the HR leader, a long time O's favorite, and a stud setup guy.

The 2013 HR leader is still on the team. Nick is recovering from his DISC FUSION SURGERY. Miller was never ours.

[Ruzious]

Manager of the year.

Executive of the year.

I don't know how well the 2015 season will play out, but with all the factors involved with walk years I find comfort in the fact that DD and Buck are navigating it.

Let them do their thing. It's what they're great at.

Their names are Smoke and Mirrors.

[Palmoripken]

Manager of the year.

Executive of the year.

I don't know how well the 2015 season will play out, but with all the factors involved with walk years I find comfort in the fact that DD and Buck are navigating it.

Let them do their thing. It's what they're great at.

Right. Honestly, I'd understand the frustration a lot more if we were still having 70 win seasons. We've proven that we can win in the East. I have no idea what next year will bring but I do think Dan and Buck know what they're doing in trying to assemble next year's squad. As for 2013, I call that a disappointing season but at the same time, I would have done cartwheels over a 2013 season any year before 2012.

[MurphDogg]

If a down year is a winning record that's good with me. When you're being outspent and out-revenued by 2:1 or more by direct competition and you still win more than you lose most years you're doing well.

That's a decent point. Let's say for the sake of argument that the Orioles true talent level IS 85 wins. That team still makes the playoffs 25 percent of the time. Now lets say for the sake of argument that they added 5 wins at free agent prices to bump their true talent level up to 90 wins at a cost of $32 million on top of the projected $115 million salary. That team still misses the playoffs 25 percent of the time. And you are locked in to those players that you signed multi-year deals to through their declining years (or are missing the prospects that you traded for them) in an effort to win now.

[TiredofLosing20]

The 2013 HR leader is still on the team. Nick is recovering from his DISC FUSION SURGERY. Miller was never ours.

The point, and I think you get it, is that it should not be surprising nor should it be unacceptable for the casual fan to be somewhat upset with how this offseason has played out.

[mdbdotcom]

No playoffs. Cool you win 85 games again what does that get you?

That doesn't seem to matter to you. Win or lose, you gripe the same amount every winter.

[Oriole1940]

If you ask most any football player what their goal is, they will say, to win the Superbowl. If you ask most any baseball player what their goal is, they will say, to win the W.S. Having a pretty good year, or we will win more than we lose, therefore we will have had a pretty good year vs. the past losing years, will not be uttered by them. It will not be uttered by me either, not when we CAN do better and win it ALL.