Manny Machado...

[ArtVanDelay]

Thanks for the info.

No problem.

I hope that we can lock him up this offseason. I've stated before that I would offer him 10/200.

[BohKnowsBmore]

Just a guess but if he stays on track he should get something like 5M, 10 M, 15 M, through his arb years and 20M AAV as a FA.

Right. But then he has to go year to year and not get the same security. Also could get more up front (10 vs. 5 in 2016 in the model I posted).

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[Frobby]

Right. But then he has to go year to year and not get the same security.

I think players of Manny's caliber are going to make a lot more than $20 mm in their FA years. Let's look at some recent deals:

Trout - Signed just before his arb years started. Earning $6/$16/$20 mm in his Arb years, then $34 mm/yr for 3 years.

Stanton - Signed after earning $6.5 mm as an Arb 1. Earns $6.5/9 mm in his Arb years, then averages over $27 mm for 11 years (and has an opt out in 2020).

Ellsbury - Signed as a free agent for $21 mm/yr for 7 years.

Now, Manny probably won't earn as high an AAV as Trout, but he will almost certainly exceed Ellsbury. He'll have just finished his age 25 season when he hits FA, and that's rare. I'd say getting him for $25 mm/yr in his FA years would be a bargain. I'd gladly pay him $6/10/15 for the next three and then 8/$200 mm, for a total of 11/$231 including the Arb years.

[El Gordo]

If I were Manny I'd want an opt out. The O's look to be non contenders after 2018.

[Barnaby Graves]

If I were Manny I'd want an opt out. The O's look to be non contenders after 2018.

How could anyone possibly know what happens after 2018.

[CallMeBrooksie]

If I were Manny I'd want an opt out. The O's look to be non contenders after 2018.

Please go on.. I'd love to hear about what our team will look like three seasons from now.

[El Gordo]

How could anyone possibly know what happens after 2018.

Look to be is not the same as saying will be. We won't have Buck or DD after 2018 to begin with. Probably no Jones and if history tells us anything no FA will be here to replace all the guys we lose. The Marlins future looks brighter and Stanton got an opt out.

[CallMeBrooksie]

Look to be is not the same as saying will be. We won't have Buck or DD after 2018 to begin with. Probably no Jones and if history tells us anything no FA will be here to replace all the guys we lose. The Marlins future looks brighter and Stanton got an opt out.

You're just looking at the payroll and aging it three years. Every roster in the bigs would look pretty bad except the Cubs and maybe a couple others.

SO much can happen that we can't foresee. Also, Manny is one of the rare few players that can move the needle of a team all by himself. Like having a good QB in the NFL, just having him gives you a fighting chance.

[El Gordo]

You're just looking at the payroll and aging it three years. Every roster in the bigs would look pretty bad except the Cubs and maybe a couple others.

SO much can happen that we can't foresee. Also, Manny is one of the rare few players that can move the needle of a team all by himself. Like having a good QB in the NFL, just having him gives you a fighting chance.

Right, pigs could fly, but with Buck's and DD's contracts up I wouldn't bet on it. We don't spend, we have nothing in the farm system to replace the production of the current position players , we won't have had enough high draft choices to restock by 2018. Doesn't look good.

[CallMeBrooksie]

Right, pigs could fly, but with Buck's and DD's contracts up I wouldn't bet on it. We don't spend, we have nothing in the farm system to replace the production of the current position players , we won't have had enough high draft choices to restock by 2018. Doesn't look good.

Pigs will certainly not fly, but things that we cannot foresee will most certainly happen. One thing this team should have shown you is they don't have to spend like the Sox and Yankees to compete.

It's pretty darn silly to look at the roster and say the only thing that will be different in three years is that our expirings will be gone. I don't think you appreciate how much can happen in three seasons.

[Frobby]

Right, pigs could fly, but with Buck's and DD's contracts up I wouldn't bet on it. We don't spend, we have nothing in the farm system to replace the production of the current position players , we won't have had enough high draft choices to restock by 2018. Doesn't look good.

First of all, I'm not so sure Buck will leave after 2018. If he's tired of managing, then I guess it's possible. If so, it wouldn't surprise me to see Buck take over as GM if Dan leaves. I'm not going to worry about that.

As to how much talent there will be in our system in 2018, who knows? Maybe by then Schoop is an all-star, Gausman and Bundy are TOR starters and DJ Stewart and Chance Sisco are solid major league hitters. Maybe we've spent some of the money that is coming off the books this winter to acquire some other good players. There are way too many variables to guess how good or bad the team will be by then.

[SpinJr]

Geez Gordo have a tough weekend? I guess I have nothing to look forward to in three years? Might as well prepare myself now for another decade of losing.

I need some positivity.

[El Gordo]

First of all, I'm not so sure Buck will leave after 2018. If he's tired of managing, then I guess it's possible. If so, it wouldn't surprise me to see Buck take over as GM if Dan leaves. I'm not going to worry about that.

As to how much talent there will be in our system in 2018, who knows? Maybe by then Schoop is an all-star, Gausman and Bundy are TOR starters and DJ Stewart and Chance Sisco are solid major league hitters. Maybe we've spent some of the money that is coming off the books this winter to acquire some other good players. There are way too many variables to guess how good or bad the team will be by then.

Like I said .

[Frobby]

I need some positivity.

OK then, back to Manny...

- His OPS is at a season high .882

- 1.137 OPS from May 31 to now

- On pace for 33 HR

- On pace for an 8.5 rWAR season

Man is he locked in at the moment. Nice easy swing, hits to all fields, not swinging at bad pitches, easy power.

[LookinUp]

Even prior to this current hot streak, I've always felt that Manny's balance at the plate is reminiscent of A-Rod. He's the best looking hitter I've seen on the O's since Robbie Alomar. I think you're looking at a $200 million guy, which is good and bad for the O's.