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Manny Machado...

Oriolesallday

By Oriolesallday
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MurphDogg Hangout Grand Counsel

MurphDogg

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1989 and Ken Griffey Jr, Barry Bonds and Robbie Alomar

Bonds was not under 24 in '89, and they combined for 15.6 rWAR that year. In 2013, when Harper and Machado were 20 and Trout was 21, they combined for 19.7 rWAR, this year they have already combined for 13.2 rWAR (on pace for a combined rWAR of a little over 30).

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Frobby Hangout Grand Counsel

Frobby

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1989 and Ken Griffy Jr, Barry Bonds and Robbie Alomar

OK, I'll buy that. I still think this group could turn out even better, but it's too early to say that.

Pre-24 WAR (baseball age):

Griffey 30.1, Alomar 16.7, Bonds 15.5 =62.2

Trout 32.8, Harper 15.3, Machado 14.2 = 62.3 (note: Trout still has .6 seasons to play, and Harper/Machado have 1.6 each, before their age 24 seasons)

Pretty cool that Griffey, Alomar and Bonds were all sons of very good major league players.

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Frobby Hangout Grand Counsel

Frobby

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In 1954, 20 year old Hank Aaron, 22 year old Mickey Mantle, and 23 year old Willie Mays combined to produce 18.8 rWar. They all turned out to be pretty good.

That was before I was born. But, that's the kind of trio we are potentially discussing here. Before age 24 (baseball age): Mantle 29.7 rWAR, Mays 15.7, Aaron 22.6. And that's with Mays missing a year for military service.

One of the main differences between Trout/Harper/Machado and Mantle/Mays/Aaron is that the first trio is much closer in age than the latter. The former group is separated in age by 14 months and all broke in within a year of each other, whereas the latter group is separated by 33 months and Aaron came up three years after the other two.

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MurphDogg Hangout Grand Counsel

MurphDogg

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Would anyone have objection to offering Machado the Trout deal right now?

After this season he will be at the same service time level as Trout was when he signed that deal. I think it is fair to say that Trout was a better player over first 3+ years than Machado. I would need a 7th year either as an option or guaranteed and/or a flat $30 million rather than the $33.25 million that Trout is getting over what would be his free agency years. Machado shouldn't get as much as Trout over a 6 year deal with service time being equal.

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Frobby Hangout Grand Counsel

Frobby

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After this season he will be at the same service time level as Trout was when he signed that deal. I think it is fair to say that Trout was a better player over first 3+ years than Machado. I would need a 7th year either as an option or guaranteed and/or a flat $30 million rather than the $33.25 million that Trout is getting over what would be his free agency years. Machado shouldn't get as much as Trout over a 6 year deal with service time being equal.

Agreed -- although you can argue with a straight face that Trout is being underpaid! $33 mm is about what you'd pay for a 5 WAR player, and Trout is about a 9 WAR player. Manny is looking like he could be a 6-7 WAR player.

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Frobby Hangout Grand Counsel

Frobby

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Would anyone have objection to offering Machado the Trout deal right now?
As good as Manny is, and he's real good, he DID have two knee operations before the age of 25. That would give me pause before I offered him close to a quarter of a BILLION DOLLARS in a 10 year deal.

That's not the Trout deal. Trout is getting 6/$144 mm.

The O's have two choices: they can offer Manny a generous deal now and take some chances, or they can watch the price go up every year until they lose him.

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DrungoHazewood Hangout Grand Counsel

DrungoHazewood

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1989 and Ken Griffy Jr, Barry Bonds and Robbie Alomar
Bonds was not under 24 in '89, and they combined for 15.6 rWAR that year. In 2013, when Harper and Machado were 20 and Trout was 21, they combined for 19.7 rWAR, this year they have already combined for 13.2 rWAR (on pace for a combined rWAR of a little over 30).

When I was a teenager there was much made of the debuts/rookies in 1986. All of the following plausible HOF players made their MLB debuts in 1986:

M. McGwire

K. Brown

F. McGriff

G. Maddux

R. Palmeiro

B. Larkin

B. Bonds

B. Santiago

W. Clark

D. Cone

Plus a bunch of guys with really good, through probably non-HOF, careers:

C. Finley

W. Joyner

B. Bonilla

J. Bell

Bo

K. Seitzer

D. Drabek

J. Moyer

J. Kruk

R. Sierra

T. Steinbach

And a whole bunch of pretty good guys with a big year or two, or careers as relievers:

B. Thigpen

C. Snyder

D. Sveum

D. Plesac

P. Incavaglia

J. Nieves

K. Daniels

That was a ton of young talent coming into the league in a single year.

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