Insights on the Norris trade from the Astros hacking articles

[DJHJR86]

Mike Wright is a major league pitcher. We will see if little Josh Hader ever is.

I was coming here to post this, but you beat me to it.

[Stotle]

Mike Wright is a major league pitcher. We will see if little Josh Hader ever is.

Eh. That's how we're determining value of trade assets? So, any player with a major league gig is worth more than Chance Sisco? Or Corey Seager?

[Stotle]

2. Based on what? How likely is he to hit that ceiling with the extensive control problems he's had? I'll take the guy who's a sure ML, with a chance to be a cheap, back end SP.

Extensive control problems? Walks per inning for each start:

4 in 3 IP

1 in 3 IP

1 in 4 IP

o in 5 IP

3 in 3.2 IP

1 in 6 IP

2 in 4 IP

0 in 6 IP

1 in .1 IP

0 in 3 IP

1 in 6 IP

2 in 3 IP

Can struggle with executing his pitches and can run into control issues, but this isn't even close to a high risk control guy, at least right now. Compare to what Lance McCullers did prior to his major league promotion this year.

[waroriole]

Extensive control problems? Walks per inning for each start:

4 in 3 IP

1 in 3 IP

1 in 4 IP

o in 5 IP

3 in 3.2 IP

1 in 6 IP

2 in 4 IP

0 in 6 IP

1 in .1 IP

0 in 3 IP

1 in 6 IP

2 in 3 IP

Can struggle with executing his pitches and can run into control issues, but this isn't even close to a high risk control guy, at least right now. Compare to what Lance McCullers did prior to his major league promotion this year.

At least 4 BB/9 up until this year.

[Frobby]

Eh. That's how we're determining value of trade assets? So, any player with a major league gig is worth more than Chance Sisco? Or Corey Seager?

What is your current take on Hader? I was a pretty big fan when he was with the O's, and he only improved his status with his high A performance with the Astros, but he has not been that consistently good in AA and I've read some comments that his stuff may not play as well the 2nd or 3rd time through a lineup so his future may be in the pen. Do you agree, or do you think he's got a good chance to be a starter in the bigs?

I really meant my OP to be an invitation to discuss the merits of the two packages, not to be dismissive of Hader. Wright at the time was on his way to being our MiL pitcher of the year, and Strop is a guy I've always liked. In fact, in my mind Hader is kind of a LH, younger Strop, capable of dominating but with some control and mechanics issues. Not that I've actually seen him pitch, it's just my second hand impression of him.

[Tx Oriole]

Hader is a 21 year old striking out 8 per nine in Double-A while maintaining a 1.25 WHIP. How is he unlikely to be a major leaguer?

In Double-A Mike Wright was a 23 year old striking out 8.5 per nine with a 1.3 WHIP.

Can't just scout the stat line, but can't ignore it either. Hader is getting it done.

Does because be is doing well AA doesn't mean he can make it as a major league

pitcher. Nothing is guaranteed in s

[Tx Oriole]

Does because be is doing well AA doesn't mean he can make it as a major league

pitcher. Nothing is guaranteed in s

Sports.

[Stotle]

What is your current take on Hader? I was a pretty big fan when he was with the O's, and he only improved his status with his high A performance with the Astros, but he has not been that consistently good in AA and I've read some comments that his stuff may not play as well the 2nd or 3rd time through a lineup so his future may be in the pen. Do you agree, or do you think he's got a good chance to be a starter in the bigs?

I really meant my OP to be an invitation to discuss the merits of the two packages, not to be dismissive of Hader. Wright at the time was on his way to being our MiL pitcher of the year, and Strop is a guy I've always liked. In fact, in my mind Hader is kind of a LH, younger Strop, capable of dominating but with some control and mechanics issues. Not that I've actually seen him pitch, it's just my second hand impression of him.

My opinion hasn't changed much since this winter:

LHP Josh Hader: The long and lanky lefty enjoyed a season to build upon with High-A Lancaster, working with an upper-80s to low-90s fastball with lots of dance out of a tough low three-quarters slot. He can reach as his as 95 mph and could sit closer to that mark in shorter bursts should he wind up in the pen as some evaluators suggest. His slider is a second potential above-average offering that can make lefty bats highly uncomfortable due to the angle of approach. His change is a third usable weapon, though both it and the slider regularly play fringe average or below, as Hader is still working to find a consistent release that allows him to work the totality of the zone with each. He’ll need more precision in execution to continue his run of success against stiffer Texas League competition, and could find a home as a useful lefty relief arm should he prove incapable of turning over upper-level lineups with his fastball-heavy approach.

I don't think he's a sure fire starter, but I'd be surprised if he isn't at least a lefty specialist. And he is young enough (age and experience) that you can afford to take your time and figure out what you have.

For the record (while it's not a popular view I'm sure), I don't think Mike Wright is a sure fire starter either. I think there is a risk his stuff plays down over the long haul and later into starts, but I also think he's a quality late-inning arm at a minimum.

[Stotle]

Does because be is doing well AA doesn't mean he can make it as a major league

pitcher. Nothing is guaranteed in s

Will, ****, thanks for that...

[Stotle]

At least 4 BB/9 up until this year.

Like Lance McCullers (previously mentioned). Take a look at Tyson Ross' BB/9 as a minor leaguer. Hader may end up flaming out, but you aren't providing credible evidence that it's likely.

[CanadianOriole]

I was and still am very high on Hader - more so than Wright - and I think it's telling Luhnow wanted Hader in the end as well.

[Frobby]

For the record (while it's not a popular view I'm sure), I don't think Mike Wright is a sure fire starter either. I think there is a risk his stuff plays down over the long haul and later into starts, but I also think he's a quality late-inning arm at a minimum.

I doubt there are many here who think Wright is a sure-fire starter. I didn't see his first two starts, only the two subsequent ones, but I don't think he takes full advantage of his height and his command looks just so-so to me. I need to see more of him, though.

[JLee2027]

Looks like it went like this:

- Astros asked for Gausman or Bundy

- Duquette said no to Gausman, would need to get back to them on Bundy

- Duquette later said probably no Bundy, but would they do deal without him?

- Astros said probably not, but might consider Norris + for Bundy.

- Duquette later proposed Wright and Strop for Norris

- Finally ended up with Hoes, Hader and pick for Norris

The things that stand out to me:

1. Duquette was inclined to protect Gausman over Bundy.

2. Bundy wasn't immediately rejected out of hand in a Norris deal.

3. The deal Duquette offered (Wright and Strop) arguably is better than the deal the Astros got.

Interesting stuff. It should be noted that Bundy was injured when these discussions were occurring.

Dan has done this for a long time. If you shoot people down out of the gate, nothing gets done and the conversation is done and over. If you tell people maybe so it keeps deals alive, keeps them talking and gives them time to think about things and develop alternatives.

It doesn't necessarily mean Bundy was ever going to be traded.

[BohKnowsBmore]

Like Lance McCullers (previously mentioned). Take a look at Tyson Ross' BB/9 as a minor leaguer. Hader may end up flaming out, but you aren't providing credible evidence that it's likely.

Those would be the exception, rather than the rule, no? At the very least I would think there would have to be other positive evidence or something to overcome the presumption that that is not a good thing.

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[sportsfan8703]

1. How are you arguing in favor of the pick when you don't even know who they chose? They bombed on last year's draft, by running out of money, even with that extra pick.

2. Based on what? How likely is he to hit that ceiling with the extensive control problems he's had? I'll take the guy who's a sure ML, with a chance to be a cheap, back end SP.

3. You said you'd take it in hindsight too. He was phenomenal last year and has a decent chance to provide more value than anyone HOU got ever will.

4. I'm sure they'd give him up for very little.

Dang, You can honestly say they "bombed" on a draft after 1 year? After that I can't have a baseball conversation with you.