Orioles Better Make Davis an Offer!

[Dark Helmet]

I fully expect Davis to be in Texas next year. Either as an ASTRO or back to the Rangers.

[Old#5fan]

I hope the Os make a good offer for Davis, but the most likely scenario is that someone else is the high bidder.

If we get a good draft pick from the QO, I will be fine moving on.

Chris Davis has given the Os good production and, not unlike several hitters looking for big contracts in their 30s, I expect he will move on.

Guys like Chris Davis don't grow on trees and he will be difficult to replace, but many franchises end up regretting signing power hitters into their 30s - like Josh Hamilton and Albert Pujols.

If we get picks for Chen, Wieters and Davis, we could have about 7 of the top 110 picks in next year's draft (plus a massive opportunity in international prospect-land), with a good opportunity to re-load and lay a strong foundation for our next competitive team.

You sure have more fsith in the ability of the scouts and drafting and development of them than I do. Based on drafting history they will be lucky if 1/7 is anywhere close to Davis or Witers. There have been far too many billy Rowells, Wade Tiownsends. Mark Smiths, Matt Hongoods, Pedro Beatos (worthless picks) than Markakis or Manny's!

[TonySoprano]

This is factual.

To an extent. Davis has said he'd like to be back, but my guess is he'd like to test the market to see his value first.

[ChuckS]

To an extent. Davis has said he'd like to be back, but my guess is he'd like to test the market to see his value first.

I think Davis would land something in the range of 5/100 if the season ended today. That # could fluctuate by 25 mil on either end depending on how he finishes. I don't see the years going any higher though.

[TonySoprano]

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Crush, do you see yourself as an Oriole long-term, after this season? We hope you are an O for life! <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/masnCRUSHED?src=hash">#masnCRUSHED</a>!</p>— Josh Rubin (@jprterp) <a href="

">July 2, 2015</a></blockquote>

<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script><blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Would ❤️ to stay in Balt for rest of my career, but understand we have a lot of FAs. Would be hard to keep us all. <a href="https://t.co/rqn78mBI51">https://t.co/rqn78mBI51</a></p>— #masnCRUSHED (@masnOrioles) <a href="

">July 2, 2015</a></blockquote>

<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

[O's are Legends]

This is factual.

[OriolesMagic83]

I would like to see the O's make him a 4 year offer. 4 yrs/$72 mill w/ an option. Probably not enough. It will be tough to see him in a Red Sox uniform. I hope Mancini is the real deal, or next year could be ugly. Think Pearce/Walker platoon.

It would be cool if he led the AL in RBI this year. I know no one is a fan of RBI, but its a great accomplishment for Davis, IMO.

[Enjoy Terror]

With all the money coming off the books next year, I don't see why we can't re-sign just one of them, and Crush would be my pick.

Ditto, not only because Crush is a productive player, but also because there are no good FA 1Bs next year.

[JLee2027]

The problem is someone (LA, Red Sox, Yankees) is going to overpay Davis big time.

I'd really like to keep him as an Oriole. If he loves it so much here, as he says, then he's going to have to accept a market offer and not an overpayment to stay.

[oriole]

Ditto, not only because Crush is a productive player, but also because there are no good FA 1Bs next year.

Which is exactly why they shouldn't sign him for a bigger contract than he is worth based on demand.

[MrOrange82]

Letting Davis walk is the "correct" move. Expecting the O's to make the most of draft picks, however, borders on insane.

In a world in which the O's extended Hardy, and given the crushing (hah) dearth of "system" players ready to take Davis' place, allowing him to sign elsewhere would be painful.

IMO, the O's have obvious, "correct" choices they can make, but no good ones. Next year's offense will be ugly.

[LookitsPuck]

Next year's FA class of 1Bmen is awful.

The O's have zilch in the way of impact position players. If (when?) they lose Davis, they're in a lot of trouble production wise. This club can ill afford to go into next season with Wieters, Davis both gone and then question marks at LF, RF AND DH.

I fully expect Wieters to walk and the O's to platoon Joseph and Clevenger. The FA class for catchers is actually just as bad as it is for 1st basemen.

But as this club has shown this year, you can't get away with so many platoons especially when you're banking on revivals/career years.

So many question marks going into next year:

- Is Paredes for real? If not, does he get a spot as part of a DH platoon?

- With Wieters gone...do the O's opt for Joseph and Clevenger?

- With Davis most likely gone...what do they do? I don't think Walker is the answer. Do they bank on resigning Pearce as a low cost option?

- With Parra gone and Snider underperforming...what do they do about RF?

- What do they do about LF?

That's A LOT of holes. I think they can afford to sign Heyward. He's young, solid defender and he can hit. You'd shore up your outfield and then you can deal with augmenting the 3rd spot with a Parra/Reimold/Snider type. Heyward is going to cost at least $15m-$20m per.

Players off the books next year:

De Aza: $5m

Hunter: $4.7m

Matusz: $3.2m

Davis: $12m

Wieters: $8.3m

Norris: $8.8m

Chen: $4.8m

O'Day: $4.3m

That's over $50m off the books. Yes, others will get raises. But this club should be able to increase payroll. With them increasing payroll and having ~$50m off the books...I'd like to see them do the following:

Sign Heyward (estimate: $17m per year - 6-8 year deal) for RF

Sign Parra (estimate: $9m per year - 3 year deal) for LF

That eats up half.

The rest needs to be spent on a starter. With Tillman, Jimenez, Gausman and Gonzalez in the rotation for next year...the O's need a starter. They might as well resign Chen. Gotta imagine Chen will get something like $10-12m/year for 4-5 years.

At that point, the O's also need to make it a priority to extend Manny. No ifs, ands, or buts. He's a free agent in 2019. So 3 years left on the contract. Feel you have to extend him. He's so young. Extend an extra 5-7 years. Don't have to give him backloaded Trout money. But you're going to end up paying him $20m-$25m/year at the backend of Machado's contract. Get it done ASAP.

With the above, the O's have the above situated:

Jones in CF through 2018

Heyward in RF through 2021

Parra in LF through 2018

Hardy at SS through 2017

Schoop at 2B through 2019

Machado at 3B through 2024

Joseph/Clevenger at C (and can be improved for the 2017/2018 year with Cisco on the horizon) through 2020

That leaves 1B and DH open. Think you can fill that internally or through stopgaps like Pearce, Paredes, etc. You can afford to take changes on 2 spots.

Gonzo, Tillman, Jimenez aren't FA's until 2018.

This club can take care of the bullpen through internal options.

So, it doesn't look like there's money for Davis until Angelos opens the pocketbook and increase payroll another $20m/year. And that's severely doubtful.

[JLee2027]

Read somewhere the Orioles have only 44 million committed in 2016. If so, we have about 70 million to spend, not 50.

[TonySoprano]

Read somewhere the Orioles have only 44 million committed in 2016. If so, we have about 70 million to spend, not 50.

That number you're talking about doesn't count all the guys on arbitration or pre-arb

[25 Nuggets]

That number you're talking about doesn't count all the guys on arbitration or pre-arb

Yes, and thanks for including the link. The estimate is 89.1 million. If they don't bring Matusz back, that drops to around 86.5 million, depending on what Matusz's arbitration number would be. That should mean about 40 million to play with.

At that point, the O's also need to make it a priority to extend Manny. No ifs, ands, or buts. He's a free agent in 2019. So 3 years left on the contract. Feel you have to extend him. He's so young. Extend an extra 5-7 years. Don't have to give him backloaded Trout money. But you're going to end up paying him $20m-$25m/year at the backend of Machado's contract. Get it done ASAP.

Absolutely. I would go so far as to say it's the #1 priority. They can get a discount per year overall by raising his salary through his arbitration years. Now is the time for the 10 year deal, not later.