Time for a full rebuild

[SteveO]

Good post. These are very insightful thoughts. Not sure I agree with them completely but I respect the depth of thought you've put into them.

I think you can still rebuild if you keep Manny. If you sign him to six or eight years, you hope you can bounce back and contend by year 4 or so of that deal. In the meantime, he can help mentor the new prospects you get when you deal Jones and Britton. I do agree that you never rush a deal -- that goes without saying. But do keep in mind that Britton is likely at the peak of his value this year, and although Jones has been Mr. Consistent, with his hitting profile he could end up with a .240 type of year if pitchers start being more disciplined when they face him and if he has less protection in the order.

To me the essential question the Orioles need to have answered is this. Can Manny be extended for a long enough period of time that you can rebuild or retool around him. There is nothing I want more than to see him here for the next 10+ years. To me Manny is the type of asset whose management and how you deal with him could define this teams fortunes for many years to come regardless if he is here or playing elsewhere (via trade)

As an organization, he is the one asset you absolutely have either keep or capitalize on his rare and extreme value to jumpstart your rebuild. Without addressing that question its kinda of like flying blind.

[Crazysilver03]

Oh you should have seen some of the ridiculous posts of outrage that occurred when we traded Koji. Calling davis a strikeout machine and Hunter a bum who couldn't possibly help us. As if Koji was helping our team at all when we weren't good enough to have a lead late in the game.

Sure, some people said that. But dont try to characterize it like "most of the board" was like that.

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[FanSince88]

To me the essential question the Orioles need to have answered is this. Can Manny be extended for a long enough period of time that you can rebuild or retool around him. There is nothing I want more than to see him here for the next 10+ years. To me Manny is the type of asset whose management and how you deal with him could define this teams fortunes for many years to come regardless if he is here or playing elsewhere (via trade)

As an organization, he is the one asset you absolutely have either keep or capitalize on his rare and extreme value to jumpstart your rebuild. Without addressing that question its kinda of like flying blind.

Agree 100%. Losing him would be worse than losing Mussina (which the most disgraceful moment in franchise history IMO...and look all the good it did us for 11 years).

[FanSince88]

Agree 100%. Losing him would be worse than losing Mussina (which the most disgraceful moment in franchise history IMO...and look all the good it did us for 11 years).

Meant to say "losing him without getting anything in return would be worse than losing Mussina." Who -- of course -- we got absolutely nothing in return for. What an abject failure that was on the part of the FO and Angelos.

[SteveO]

Agree 100%. Losing him would be worse than losing Mussina (which the most disgraceful moment in franchise history IMO...and look all the good it did us for 11 years).

I think as COC pointed out in another thread you can't hand him a blank check as much as it would be tempting.

At this point, 6/150 is more than Trout got, given inflation, its more than fair. 8/200 I would like more as it gives you two additional years. If he won't sign for that ballpark give or take a little, then what it would take in order to get him to sign (guessing Stanton like deal) would be unreasonable for this team to consider despite his enormous talent.

Point is though you have to make an aggressive push to get it done and then deal with whatever the result is. Offering him something like 6/100 is just a waste of time an frankly not worth the effort. He is rare talent, precious commodity and needs to be treated with that respect be it keeping him or getting value back for him. I truly believe how the O's handle him, what they do will have as much to do with their fortunes over then next 5-10 years as almost all their other decisions combines...almost. Hopefully everyone gets my drift though.

[Aristotelian]

Meh. Rebuild does not guarantee you anything. Prospects have to pan out. Could take years. We can always trade AJ, Britton, etc, any time before the deadline next year if things are going terribly. As long as we are not locked into super long term contracts, the contracts will expire and we can reassess. I don't see much point in tanking from the beginning.

Dumping everyone aside from Schoop and Manny makes no sense. By the time anyone we get for Britton and AJ are ready, Schoop and Manny will be on their way out. Especially because they will have been losing 100 games a year.

Trading Caleb Joseph would be especially idiotic. He is a plus defender, solid hitter, under team control. Why would you trade him for a B prospect?

I get it that folks are pissed off and the state of the team seems bleak right now. Just a couple weeks ago we were in possession of the wildcard. Take a deep breath, look at things objectively. We have $30M or so of expiring contracts as it is without a full rebuild. Replace Chen with Kazmir, extend Davis or bring in a bat. Hope Pearce, Tillman, and JJ bounce back and DD hits on a nugget or two.

[Ohfan67]

MacPhail rebuild? Remember Garrett Atkins et al.? The Seattle trade was great. Majority of rest was very blah.

[FanSince88]

Replace Chen with Kazmir, extend Davis or bring in a bat. Hope Pearce, Tillman, and JJ bounce back and DD hits on a nugget or two.

If that's all we do, get ready for a 4th place AL finish in 2016. At best. JJ could very well be done for his career if he can't heal his back. Pearce was lightning in a bottle and isn't getting any younger. Tillman might bounce back but might not and even if he bounce back he's a 3 at best. Gonzo could be done.

[FanSince88]

If that's all we do, get ready for a 4th place AL finish in 2016. At best. JJ could very well be done for his career if he can't heal his back. Pearce was lightning in a bottle and isn't getting any younger. Tillman might bounce back but might not and even if he bounce back he's a 3 at best. Gonzo could be done.

4th Place AL East finish, I meant to say. 4th place or better in the entire AL for the 2016 orioles is probably about a 100 to one chance.

[MDtransplant757]

We shall see after this offseason, but calm down guys. God, O's fans are a miserable bunch, and it's getting Philly miserable here where we're out of it every year. I think we should trade all of our AAAA players to Seattle, get Cruz back and then build a pitching staff.

[Rene88]

Frustrating. We don't need a full rebuild. We just need people to do their jobs and recognize when it's not your year and get pieces for the future. Now, it's too late and our farm system is near the bottom in all of MLB. I sure hope they have a good draft next year....

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[Crabcakes]

Here is how I would approach it.

1. Offer Manny a 6/150 or 8/200 extension. If him and his agent come back with Stanton numbers, put that fact in your back pocket and know you have move Manny at some point in the next year or so. If he does not sign for that amount, he is bound and determined to be a FA and that is not a battle we will win. If he does I would aim to retool your roster around Manny, Schoop, and AJ offensively. That's a reasonable core to build around over a few years.

2. If Manny signs then that is the cornerstone you build from. He, Schoop and Jones are the bedrock, you add pieces offensively over then next few seasons knowing you have your cornerstone locked up for at least the next 6 years. If he (Manny) does not sign then at that point I would shift from retool mode into rebuild mode.

3. Even if you shift into rebuild mode, it's not a race, it is however imperative to get value back for guys who have value. I love AJ but he is not a guy IMO you build a franchise around, he is a guy that is the Robin to your franchises Batman so to speak. I would move AJ if Manny is not able to be extended but I would do it at a time of our choosing when we get a deal that brings back talent. Same for Britton and to a lesser extent Tillman who would have some value I believe.

4. Schoop is a guy I would keep for now regardless if we rebuild or not unless blown away. He is young and good enough to be a valuable part of a rebuild, he is good enough to be a good part of a retool. KG also.

5. A retool requires some urgency but a rebuild is not a race. The biggest mistake a team rebuilding can make is to rush the process and not get back max value for its assets of value. Manny if he won't extend is about as valuable asset as they come he and what you get back is the key to a rebuild.

It would kill me to see Manny in another uniform that does not say Orioles. That said, the worst thing this team can do is to not be aggressive in locking him up, sit around and wait till he is near his walk year and hope to get value for him. CD and MW are two guys whom we might have been able to trade 2 years ago but were both essentially had their value going into their walk years severely diminished for circumstances beyond the O's control (CD-bad year = less value on trade, MW because of injury). If you wait to long you never know what could happen and could be caught holding the bag and getting a sub-optimal return for him.

For me the whole retool, rebuild question revolves around Manny. If you can lock him up then your start to retool around him AJ, Schoop, KG etc. IF you can't and the sense is he is going to ride it out to free agency, you can't afford to wait and take a chance on getting a poor return for an asset like him. I also think if you have to move Manny then guys like AJ, Britton, etc have more value to what they can bring to a rebuild then what they can do for a retool.

Frilliant!!! .....absolute clarity....couldn't have said it any better

[gmelson26]

Here is how I would approach it.

1. Offer Manny a 6/150 or 8/200 extension. If him and his agent come back with Stanton numbers, put that fact in your back pocket and know you have move Manny at some point in the next year or so. If he does not sign for that amount, he is bound and determined to be a FA and that is not a battle we will win. If he does I would aim to retool your roster around Manny, Schoop, and AJ offensively. That's a reasonable core to build around over a few years.

2. If Manny signs then that is the cornerstone you build from. He, Schoop and Jones are the bedrock, you add pieces offensively over then next few seasons knowing you have your cornerstone locked up for at least the next 6 years. If he (Manny) does not sign then at that point I would shift from retool mode into rebuild mode.

3. Even if you shift into rebuild mode, it's not a race, it is however imperative to get value back for guys who have value. I love AJ but he is not a guy IMO you build a franchise around, he is a guy that is the Robin to your franchises Batman so to speak. I would move AJ if Manny is not able to be extended but I would do it at a time of our choosing when we get a deal that brings back talent. Same for Britton and to a lesser extent Tillman who would have some value I believe.

4. Schoop is a guy I would keep for now regardless if we rebuild or not unless blown away. He is young and good enough to be a valuable part of a rebuild, he is good enough to be a good part of a retool. KG also.

5. A retool requires some urgency but a rebuild is not a race. The biggest mistake a team rebuilding can make is to rush the process and not get back max value for its assets of value. Manny if he won't extend is about as valuable asset as they come he and what you get back is the key to a rebuild.

It would kill me to see Manny in another uniform that does not say Orioles. That said, the worst thing this team can do is to not be aggressive in locking him up, sit around and wait till he is near his walk year and hope to get value for him. CD and MW are two guys whom we might have been able to trade 2 years ago but were both essentially had their value going into their walk years severely diminished for circumstances beyond the O's control (CD-bad year = less value on trade, MW because of injury). If you wait to long you never know what could happen and could be caught holding the bag and getting a sub-optimal return for him.

For me the whole retool, rebuild question revolves around Manny. If you can lock him up then your start to retool around him AJ, Schoop, KG etc. IF you can't and the sense is he is going to ride it out to free agency, you can't afford to wait and take a chance on getting a poor return for an asset like him. I also think if you have to move Manny then guys like AJ, Britton, etc have more value to what they can bring to a rebuild then what they can do for a retool.

I like what you've posted and basically agree with it. However, I don't think Manny wants to remain in Baltimore (I hope I'm way off on this).

Let me ask you this, if Manny doesn't resign do you have faith that DD would be able to pull off a valuable trade? I just don't know. I feel like he just gets fleeced.

[winkies]

Schoop should be tradeable. Fans for some reason never want to hear it, but if you trade your trash to another team you receive their trash.

The Bedard trade is the model. Trade your good players and receive their good prospects.

[24fps]

Schoop should be tradeable. Fans for some reason never want to hear it, but if you trade your trash to another team you receive their trash.

The Bedard trade is the model. Trade your good players and receive their good prospects.

Good prospects like Delmon Young, Travis Snider, Chris Parmalee?