The Best Way to Have a Chance at Machado Long Term

[El Gordo]

I think if Manny stays healthy and becomes a FA in 2019 at age 25, he's looking at at least 10/300M. So the best way to exend him is to offer him that, back loaded to account for his arbitration years, with a 5 year opt out. So we have him a guaranteed 5 years, and if by the end of that we still suck he can leave and go to a winner for even more money.

[Camden_yardbird]

Bite the bullet and trade for A Rod. That would do it.

You know you just threw up in your mouth a little.

[MurphDogg]

I think if Manny stays healthy and becomes a FA in 2019 at age 25, he's looking at at least 10/300M. So the best way to exend him is to offer him that, back loaded to account for his arbitration years, with a 5 year opt out. So we have him a guaranteed 5 years, and if by the end of that we still suck he can leave and go to a winner for even more money.

We could win the World Series the next 5 consecutive seasons, as long as his quality of play doesn't slip too much, he would exercise the opt-out. I do think that this is a good option for Manny, that way he gets a guaranteed $100M+ and a shot at a huge free agent deal while still in his prime.

[Pickles]

I think you guys are overthinking it a bit too much.

Offer him roughly 150 mil.

For 7 or 8 years.

He'll take it.

That's the parameters of the contract that work for both sides.

[MurphDogg]

I think you guys are overthinking it a bit too much.

Offer him roughly 150 mil.

For 7 or 8 years.

He'll take it.

That's the parameters of the contract that work for both sides.

No way he agrees to a deal of more than 4 years without an opt-out. His earning potential is so much higher reaching free agency in his mid-late twenties vs. over 30. Either sign him to a four year deal which sets him up for life in case of a catastrophic injury, while giving up a single year of free agency or an 8-10 year deal which guarantees $200M-ish with an opt-out after 5 years, delaying his free agency by two years.

[DrungoHazewood]

Our franchise's future is hanging by a thread and DD better make some good decisions with his limited budget.

Will it be the age of Orcs or the age of Men? What will Frodo do? Will he keep The Ring, or will he destroy it? I think JTrea comes along, bites The Ring off Duquette's finger and then falls into Inner Harbor, saving us all.

[abbott]

No way he agrees to a deal of more than 4 years without an opt-out. His earning potential is so much higher reaching free agency in his mid-late twenties vs. over 30. Either sign him to a four year deal which sets him up for life in case of a catastrophic injury, while giving up a single year of free agency or an 8-10 year deal which guarantees $200M-ish with an opt-out after 5 years, delaying his free agency by two years.

^^^^^^ is realistic.

He's in his first arbitration year and the O's don't lose arbitration. His FA is 2019. You'll have to buy out his 3 arbitration years. He made less than 600K in 2015. If he triples his salary its 1.8 next year. If that gets tripled its 5.4 in 2017 and maybe he gets 10-12 in 2018. Thats 3/20 max for the next 3 years. Even at the current market hes looking at 60-70 for the 1st 3 years of FA.

If the Orioles play by the rules, offer him a realistic bt defensible aribtration number, he walks to the highest bidder or the best offer with a contender in 2019. Because he owes nothing to the team.

Buyout his 3 years of arbitration plus 6 additional years at the present market value for GG 3B who can hit for power and average and are young. Make it 9 for 200. Make it done ASAP and build around him

[Pickles]

No way he agrees to a deal of more than 4 years without an opt-out. His earning potential is so much higher reaching free agency in his mid-late twenties vs. over 30. Either sign him to a four year deal which sets him up for life in case of a catastrophic injury, while giving up a single year of free agency or an 8-10 year deal which guarantees $200M-ish with an opt-out after 5 years, delaying his free agency by two years.

That's the sacrifice he makes for getting the guaranteed money.

He could blow his knee out again tomorrow.

[weams]

Will it be the age of Orcs or the age of Men? What will Frodo do? Will he keep The Ring, or will he destroy it? I think JTrea comes along, bites The Ring off Duquette's finger and then falls into Inner Harbor, saving us all.

"My Precious"

[MurphDogg]

That's the sacrifice he makes for getting the guaranteed money.

He could blow his knee out again tomorrow.

Right, and if he is worried about that, he should either (a) take out an insurance policy, (b) sign a four-year deal or © sign a 7+ year deal with a five year opt out. The idea that he is going to give up a shot at free agency in his prime when he doesn't have to is foolish. I understand that opt outs only help the player, but I don't think there is any way that he signs here for more than 4 or MAYBE 5 years (with the 4th and 5th year being worth $30-ish million) without one.

[weams]

Right, and if he is worried about that, he should either (a) take out an insurance policy, (b) sign a four-year deal or © sign a 7+ year deal with a five year opt out. The idea that he is going to give up a shot at free agency in his prime when he doesn't have to is foolish. I understand that opt outs only help the player, but I don't think there is any way that he signs here for more than 4 or MAYBE 5 years (with the 4th and 5th year being worth $30-ish million) without one.

I am pretty sure he wants to be a free agent. And will gladly stay in Baltimore. If they offer the most money.

[Pickles]

Right, and if he is worried about that, he should either (a) take out an insurance policy, (b) sign a four-year deal or © sign a 7+ year deal with a five year opt out. The idea that he is going to give up a shot at free agency in his prime when he doesn't have to is foolish. I understand that opt outs only help the player, but I don't think there is any way that he signs here for more than 4 or MAYBE 5 years (with the 4th and 5th year being worth $30-ish million) without one.

Signing a 7/8 year deal, he still becomes a FA again w plenty of years left to make more money.

[El Gordo]

We could win the World Series the next 5 consecutive seasons, as long as his quality of play doesn't slip too much, he would exercise the opt-out. I do think that this is a good option for Manny, that way he gets a guaranteed $100M+ and a shot at a huge free agent deal while still in his prime.

Make it 6 before the opt out, but that is the only way you can keep him after 2018.

[El Gordo]

^^^^^^ is realistic.

He's in his first arbitration year and the O's don't lose arbitration. His FA is 2019. You'll have to buy out his 3 arbitration years. He made less than 600K in 2015. If he triples his salary its 1.8 next year. If that gets tripled its 5.4 in 2017 and maybe he gets 10-12 in 2018. Thats 3/20 max for the next 3 years. Even at the current market hes looking at 60-70 for the 1st 3 years of FA.

If the Orioles play by the rules, offer him a realistic bt defensible aribtration number, he walks to the highest bidder or the best offer with a contender in 2019. Because he owes nothing to the team.

Buyout his 3 years of arbitration plus 6 additional years at the present market value for GG 3B who can hit for power and average and are young. Make it 9 for 200. Make it done ASAP and build around him

Not even close here. In 2007 Ryan Howard put up a 3.1 WAR season hitting 47 HR. In his first year of arbitration he won 10M. That 10M would be a bit more in todays dollars. In 2015 Manny put up a 6.8 WAR hitting 35 HR and winning his second GG. Something tells me his first year of arbitration will be a littler higher than 1.8 M. He might well start at 10-12 M.

[El Gordo]

That's the sacrifice he makes for getting the guaranteed money.

He could blow his knee out again tomorrow.

You could get run over by a truck. If someone told you, you could have 300 M if you could avoid being run over by a truck the next two years, would you take that gamble, or settle for 100M