Why the O's will be better in 2016

[Can_of_corn]

73 wins?

If I say 73 folks will accuse me of cribbing off the Zips projection. I'm going with 78 as it currently stands.

[srock]

I think Tillman's problems in 2015 were conditioning-related. He previously had been a guy who pitched better as the game went along, whereas last year he often had trouble in the middle innings. I hope he's addressing this issue this winter.

Getting married and honeymooning all winter was a bad choice.

For Orioles fans...probably totally worth it for Tillman.

[25 Nuggets]

If I say 73 folks will accuse me of cribbing off the Zips projection. I'm going with 78 as it currently stands.

After adding Kim I think 78 looks about right. And fourth place ahead of Tampa.

[Frobby]

After adding Kim I think 78 looks about right. And fourth place ahead of Tampa.

My midpoint projection based on the current roster would be a bit lower, probably around 75 wins.

[Il BuonO]

If I say 73 folks will accuse me of cribbing off the Zips projection. I'm going with 78 as it currently stands.

I hadn't looked yet and that was with my tongue planted firmly in my cheek, but my expectations seem to be dropping.

[T. Legend]

Talking about "the way he was pitching" but not results seems silly. If it wasn't affecting his results then we should expect exactly the same pitcher next year, right? If the reason he had a bad 2015 was injury, shouldn't that be written all over the results?

He got injured in early June, so I was using half season splits, but you were worried about his command. Here are his monthly splits:

2015 Mar/Apr IP: 23.2 BB% 11.0

2015 May IP: 38.1 BB% 7.1

2015 Jun IP: 20.1 BB% 5.8

2015 Jul IP: 27.0 BB% 5.2

2015 Aug IP: 31.2 BB% 10.3

So his line drive percentage didn't go up after his groin injury. And his walk rate didn't go up after his groin injury. His velocity was the same after his groin injury. Oh, and his xFIP was exactly in line with his career numbers. Tell me again why we would believe that 2015 was anything outside the norm for Miguel Gonzalez?

This seems like a classic fan trap to fall into. We have a groin injury followed by a rise in ERA, so we all want to believe that this is causation and not a case of a pitchers lack of stuff catching up with him.

Great post

[MDtransplant757]

Why the Orioles could be better. Everything goes right. That's easier than making a list. This team will be the same or worse on paper as the one that won 81 games last year and cost more.

We have a team that could kill it in the postseason.

[El Gordo]

The team that won 81 G had the potential to win 90.

[Can_of_corn]

The team that won 81 G had the potential to win 90.

And if the Blue Jays and Yankees had anything to play for the last week of the season it might have won 76.

[25 Nuggets]

And if the Blue Jays and Yankees had anything to play for the last week of the season it might have won 76.

That's why we won't know for sure until they play 'dem games. Variance.

[Todd-O]

Team on paper means absolutely NOTHING. Year in and year out many teams that look awesome on paper fall flat on their face.

I think this team will return to 2014 levels and get into the the playoffs.

Why?

Because.

Merry Christmas and may Santa stuff your stockings full of positivity.

[BohKnowsBmore]

Started to hit with power later in the year if I recall. We'll see, maybe a Steve Pearce year is in store for him.

I'd settle for a 2009 Nolan Reimold.

[weams]

http://camdendepot.blogspot.com/2015/12/dont-worry-about-chris-tillmans-k-bb.html

[25 Nuggets]

http://camdendepot.blogspot.com/2015/12/dont-worry-about-chris-tillmans-k-bb.html

Thanks for the link.

So the Orioles affiliate tells me not to worry about Tillman and backs it up with inconclusive data, I guess I shouldn't worry then...

[Il BuonO]

Thanks for the link.

So the Orioles affiliate tells me not to worry about Tillman and backs it up with inconclusive data, I guess I shouldn't worry then...

The data might be inconclusive but my takeaway is his steady increase in ground ball outs. The two seam FB makes him better. Now he just needs to get his conditioning figured out.