First Domino to Fall? (Gordon back to KC, 4 yrs $72M)

[Hank Scorpio]

I'll take a "number 8 hitter" who gets on base 38% of the time every day of the ******* week.

Especially in THIS lineup.

[Stotle]

But the new deal could be structured differently. Davis camp saves face if the deal remain 7/150 but the Orioles can get better terms under the hood.

Maybe its 7/150 but now with more deferred money, maybe the last year isn't guaranteed, maybe there isn't a full no trade clause, etc. Angelos always wins the legalese

This is true, certainly.

[Stotle]

I'm not sure that "usually" applies in this case. When in the past have none of the Dodgers, Yankees, Cubs, Angels, Giants, and Red Sox been involved? Offer was made and turned down. I don't see any reason to stick to that offer, given that the market now seems to be settling in at a considerably lower level. If Davis/Boras want to continue to bite off their own noses to spite their faces and not sign with Baltimore over some perceived "insult" if Baltimore is the best offer on the table, so be it. Looks like both Cespedes and Upton have considerable interest in playing for Baltimore.

I believe it would be unusual, no matter who is involved, to tell a player you value their services at a certain price and the turn around and basically say you want to pay them below their "value" because they have no other options.

That sort of thing happens, of course, when you feel players out and maybe offer a low deal that turns out to be close to what they agree to. It's pretty "in your face" to go in the opposite direction.

[srock]

How much long-term upside is there in a player who's going to be 25 and has a Steamer forecast of a .740 OPS? Norfolk is a tough place to hit, but to be a good first baseman he'd have to have better numbers in the majors than he did in AAA.

Morneau has a Steamer forecast of .743. If I thought Walker as a rookie could give me the same production, I'd go with Walker, wouldn't you? I'm kind of skeptical of that, however.

To be clear, I'm comparing Morneau or Pearce to Walker not Trumbo or Davis.

How many games does Streamer project Morneau to play in 2016? Personally I think his body is done. And Pearce is no stalwart of health himself.

This is why, given the money, I'd just as soon try Walker at 1B with Trumbo playing DH/LF ready to take over 1B if needed.

If a better LF option is acquired, then just put Trumbo at 1B and be done with it. Davis or Upton for example.

[DrungoHazewood]

Morneau has a Steamer forecast of .743. If I thought Walker as a rookie could give me the same production, I'd go with Walker, wouldn't you? I'm kind of skeptical of that, however.

Oh, sure. I'm somewhat skeptical, but how many times have we seen players outperform their projections? Pretty often. He might just have a .800 OPS April and end up north of .740. And still not be all that valuable as a defensively meh 1B-only player.

[Number5]

I believe it would be unusual, no matter who is involved, to tell a player you value their services at a certain price and the turn around and basically say you want to pay them below their "value" because they have no other options.

That sort of thing happens, of course, when you feel players out and maybe offer a low deal that turns out to be close to what they agree to. It's pretty "in your face" to go in the opposite direction.

To me, it seems pretty "in your face" to turn an obviously historic offer from this team down flat. Sorry, but it would be extremely unwise to offer millions more than necessary because you don't want to hurt the guy's feelings. If the Orioles offer 6/$130 and no other team is above 5/$100, do you really think that he would throw away $30 million because he is upset that the Orioles no longer want to be $50 million over the market?

[Frobby]

I believe it would be unusual, no matter who is involved, to tell a player you value their services at a certain price and the turn around and basically say you want to pay them below their "value" because they have no other options.

That sort of thing happens, of course, when you feel players out and maybe offer a low deal that turns out to be close to what they agree to. It's pretty "in your face" to go in the opposite direction.

Yes, that is a difficult thing to do. But it would certainly be defensible based on market fluctuations. I doubt it will happen, but the O's certainly won't give an inch on any of the details regarding backloading, deferral, etc.

[Frobby]

To me, it seems pretty "in your face" to turn an obviously historic offer from this team down flat. Sorry, but it would be extremely unwise to offer millions more than necessary because you don't want to hurt the guy's feelings. If the Orioles offer 6/$130 and no other team is above 5/$100, do you really think that he would throw away $30 million because he is upset that the Orioles no longer want to be $50 million over the market?

I agree with your point, but I doubt that's the actual scenario. I think people are reading too much into the fact that there haven't been public reports of offers from other teams. I'm sure there are several teams interested in Davis, and that not all the discussions have been reported on. The Orioles don't have perfect information about what other teams are doing. And I'm mindful of how the Yankees suddenly jumped in on Tex, how the Tigers suddenly jumped in on Fielder, and how the Nats suddenly jumped in on Scherzer. Lots of things can still happen here.

[Number5]

I agree with your point, but I doubt that's the actual scenario. I think people are reading too much into the fact that there haven't been public reports of offers from other teams. I'm sure there are several teams interested in Davis, and that not all the discussions have been reported on. The Orioles don't have perfect information about what other teams are doing. And I'm mindful of how the Yankees suddenly jumped in on Tex, how the Tigers suddenly jumped in on Fielder, and how the Nats suddenly jumped in on Scherzer. Lots of things can still happen here.

You are right. It is more difficult than usual, however, to foresee a deep-pocketed team jumping in. There just doesn't seem to me the vacancies. Now, if Boston finds a sucker to unload Hanley on, for example, the story would change immediately.

[DrungoHazewood]

To me, it seems pretty "in your face" to turn an obviously historic offer from this team down flat. Sorry, but it would be extremely unwise to offer millions more than necessary because you don't want to hurt the guy's feelings. If the Orioles offer 6/$130 and no other team is above 5/$100, do you really think that he would throw away $30 million because he is upset that the Orioles no longer want to be $50 million over the market?

That's where I am. The Orioles offered a ton of cash for a player, far more than they'd ever offered anyone. He said, "no thanks, I want that plus $50M". You pull the offer. Everything starts from scratch. If he feels disrespected or loses face because he misread the market to the point where he will take a ton less from someone else... not much you can do about it.

[Spakman]

You are right. It is more difficult than usual, however, to foresee a deep-pocketed team jumping in. There just doesn't seem to me the vacancies. Now, if Boston finds a sucker to unload Hanley on, for example, the story would change immediately.

We should take Hanley off their hands for pennies on the dollar. Let him DH and sign Cespedes or Upton. Let them have Davis. Trumbo can play first.

[Tx Oriole]

To be clear, I'm comparing Morneau or Pearce to Walker not Trumbo or Davis.

How many games does Streamer project Morneau to play in 2016? Personally I think his body is done. And Pearce is no stalwart of health himself.

This is why, given the money, I'd just as soon try Walker at 1B with Trumbo playing DH/LF ready to take over 1B if needed.

If a better LF option is acquired, then just put Trumbo at 1B and be done with it. Davis or Upton for example.

I've read his defense in the OF is not good but is good at 1st. Give him 1st and be

done with it. Let CD twist in the wind with Boras. IMO

[Stotle]

To me, it seems pretty "in your face" to turn an obviously historic offer from this team down flat. Sorry, but it would be extremely unwise to offer millions more than necessary because you don't want to hurt the guy's feelings. If the Orioles offer 6/$130 and no other team is above 5/$100, do you really think that he would throw away $30 million because he is upset that the Orioles no longer want to be $50 million over the market?

Eh, athletes have big egos. That approach could work so long as Davis really wants to be in Baltimore and has no other offers. Otherwise, it's tough to envision a player taking that type of public hit. Anything is possible, of course, and I'm far from the authority on the matter.

[NATTYBO's]

Not sure what the deferred money looks like but the deal is actually 4/68 + a 4MM buyout.....good deal for the royals

[pcbothwel]

^^^ While he didnt have a bad year, He was below his career average in several categories and maybe believes he could improve upon them. Also, the appears to be more money next year with the TV deal and a lack of quality FA (Especially COF under 30).