First Domino to Fall? (Gordon back to KC, 4 yrs $72M)

[Number5]

I think its the 4 years that makes this deal look small' date=' its still an AAV of $18MM... if it was for 5/90 it would have been fairly close to most predictions of 5/100. I do believe supply and demand is bring down the values a little....7/150 for Davis looks like an overpay now. It will be interesting to see what Upton gets...[b']I am not a cespedes fan and I don't see him getting a deal larger then Grodon's[/b]

No draft pick tied to Cespedes, and no team discount involved. I think he is virtually certain to get a bigger deal than Gordon did.

[FanSince88]

If we play our cards right, we may be able to get a real good bargain on Upton, Cespedes, or Davis. The key here is the QO pick. Will drive Davis' and Upton's price down. I think Cespedes is the next off the board. After he goes, then Upton and Davis' prices and commitments could really plummet.

[Frobby]

Just for arguments sake, would you have paid Markakis with pop 18m/year over 4 at 32 years old? I think

Nick at his peak was pretty comparable to Gordon. (Good OBP, Good defensively, .280-.300, 20 HRs a couple times). Pretty sure if this happened in our back yard there would be differing opinions.

While we've debated for years about Nick's defense, I think even Nick's biggest fans would have to concede that Gordon is a better defender. Also, Gordon has had his best years at ages 27-31, whereas Nick had his best at 23-24.

[FanSince88]

No draft pick tied to Cespedes, and no team discount involved. I think he is virtually certain to get a bigger deal than Gordon did.

It'll be bigger, the question will be how much bigger. If I'm Davis or Upton, I want to get signed before Cespedes. Because you're virtually guaranteed to get less than Cespedes does once he's been signed, since you cost a pick and he doesn't.

[NATTYBO's]

No draft pick tied to Cespedes, and no team discount involved. I think he is virtually certain to get a bigger deal than Gordon did.

I Just think you are paying for a 3 month abnormality after he signed with the Mets....prior to that he's a 2-3 win player

[NATTYBO's]

It'll be bigger, the question will be how much bigger. If I'm Davis or Upton, I want to get signed before Cespedes. Because you're virtually guaranteed to get less than Cespedes does once he's been signed, since you cost a pick and he doesn't.

How much is a pick worth $30MM...now way gets more than $100MM

[Creamsicle]

Was just saying the same thing to my buddy. We may have shot ourselves in the foot making the Davis offer public.

Tactically I think it was brilliant. Besides, if the team hadn't done it the agent would've.

[Fan4Life]

I agree. I'm not sure this puts Davis at a disadvantage. There is one less hitter on the market.

[sportsfan8703]

I just don't see Davis getting more than our supposed offer of 7/150ish. Maybe they compromise on the deferred money part. My predictions are:

Davis 7/150

Cespedes 5/110

Upton 7/120

[MDtransplant757]

I agree. I'm not sure this puts Davis at a disadvantage. There is one less hitter on the market.

But this sets the market for him. I'd prefer he sign somewhere else, I like draft picks

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[FanSince88]

Tactically I think it was brilliant. Besides, if the team hadn't done it the agent would've.

It was a good middle-of-the-road deal at a time before the market had really shaped itself. It was intended to mitigate risk and provide security for both sides. Now the market is more in focus, and it's rapidly becoming a team-friendly market for position players. Could have swung the other way, in which case our offer would have been seen as a discount. But it didn't. Chris took a risk by ignoring our offer, and so did we by "withdrawing" it. Looks like our risk paid off, and Chris' didn't.

[MDtransplant757]

I just don't see Davis getting more than our supposed offer of 7/150ish. Maybe they compromise on the deferred money part. My predictions are:

Davis 7/150

Cespedes 5/110

Upton 7/120

I would give Cespedes that exact same deal. Wouldn't offer to upton, and bring Davis down to 5/90 or 5/100

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[bpilktree]

I'll take a "number 8 hitter" who gets on base 38% of the time every day of the ******* week.

What player are you looking at then. Clearly not Gordan. In the last three years he has an OBP of .348 whil Davis is .347. So Davis gets on base about the same exact number of times but Davis an OPS of .891 and to Gordan's .776. The contracts will basically run to the same age if Davis gets a 7 year deal. One year difference so I am not sure why everyone says Davis will be bad the last three years but Gordan will be very good through the entire contract. Maybe Gordan falls off at 34 and then the last 2 years he is not any good. Maybe he does good all the way through but so does Davis. Predicting when a player will drop off is almost impossble because it is usually an injury or two that causes the drop off. Gordan plays a more demending position the Davis and you could expect that may cause him more injuries in the future but you can never tell.

[Stotle]

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">If Gordon is taking 4/70 as <a href="https://twitter.com/JeffPassan">@JeffPassan</a> reports, it could help the Os. Maybe a cheaper market for a guy like Davis.</p>? Brittany Ghiroli (@Britt_Ghiroli) <a href="

">January 6, 2016</a></blockquote>

<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

This would be odd to me. Usually when you put a large offer on the table you don't get the follow-up benefit of putting a smaller one on the table and saying "ah ah ah! That was the *old* offer. New offer is significantly lower."

[wildcard]

It doesn't seem like the O's have to stay with 7 years for Davis to keep the other teams away. Seems like 6/130 would do that. Even with a lot of backloading and deferred salary.