Davis Signs With Baltimore (7/$161M, incl $42M deferred)

[El Gordo]

Ok, well I apologize for my confusion on that front. Sometimes quote chains can be a bit of a game of telephones despite best intentions. Not my intention to misrepresent your stance.

With that said, adding pitchers to the mix obviously makes things a bit more complicated. I would definitely put Price ahead of him (and his contract reflects that along with the Cy Young hardware). I don't see a pitcher on the Toronto roster that I would put ahead of him nor on Baltimore's. Chris Archer is interesting, but he is a young guy on his way up, but he's not there yet (WAR was at highest point in career last season with 4.3 bWAR/5.3 fWAR). I would be pretty comfortable keeping Chris above him (5.2 bWAR/5.6 fWAR in 2015 for what it's worth). Tanaka is an interesting one as well, but I don't think that's a credible case to be made at this point. nobody else close on Yankees off the top of my head.

So, it's a bit trickier, but even including pitchers, which ten players are you putting ahead of Davis right now?

If you go by fWAR Davis is #5 behind Trout, Donaldson, Manny, and Cain in the AL. In the AL East if you add Price and Archer ahead of him then he's #5.

[BohKnowsBmore]

See a lot of it is subjective. Looking at 2016 and beyond I would put Archer ahead of him. I could see three current Rays being ahead of him.

I am not that enamored with Davis. I don't think he will age well. Even with not factoring in salaries there are a lot of younger players that I think will start outperforming him in short order.

Now if the original comment was "Davis has been one of the top 10 players in the AL East over the last three seasons." Well that would be a lot easier to settle.

It would. Among other ways of discussing this, weighting by length of contract, how you think someone will age, etc. seems to add more difficulty, subjectivity, etc. The original statement was regarding Chris as a top-10 player in the AL East, using the present tense. I think the most logical method of discussing this point is where you see him ranking in 2016, purely based on on-field performance. Do you believe he is among the top-10 heading into 2016? If not, who would you put ahead of him?

I don't think one needs to be enamored with Davis to consider him among the best players in the AL East (let's call it top-10).

[Can_of_corn]

It would. Among other ways of discussing this, weighting by length of contract, how you think someone will age, etc. seems to add more difficulty, subjectivity, etc. The original statement was regarding Chris as a top-10 player in the AL East, using the present tense. I think the most logical method of discussing this point is where you see him ranking in 2016, purely based on on-field performance. Do you believe he is among the top-10 heading into 2016? If not, who would you put ahead of him?

I don't think one needs to be enamored with Davis to consider him among the best players in the AL East (let's call it top-10).

I think a fair projection puts him between 3-3.5 WAR.

I really don't feel like making a list of players I think can beat that.

[BohKnowsBmore]

I think a fair projection puts him between 3-3.5 WAR.

I really don't feel like making a list of players I think can beat that.

No need to make that list, as I guess the important part is that you are down on Davis moving forward. I would still be interested to know who you see as the top-10 players in the AL East going into 2016, though.

[PaulFolk]

Tulowitzki is not top 50. Pedroia is not top 25. Davis is better than Jones. Though I like Jones much more. Donaldson crushed everyone last season. Manny is a better all around player than Davis. Bogaerts might be, but not even close yet.

Did you just say that Tulowitzki is not one of the top 50 position players in the AL East? Even though there can only be (at most) 45 everyday position players in the AL East? Tulowitzki may be one of the top 10 players in all of MLB when healthy.

[Stotle]

Which ten position players would you put ahead of him?

Manny, I would assume, is one.

AJ?

Donaldson?

Tulo?

Pedroia?

Bogearts?

I don't know if there is anyone else for whom a good case could be made (I'm surely missing someone).

I think it's likely Davis finishes as a top ten position player in AL East (he better for that contract right? That's only top quarter of position players). Who could out produce him? Without looking at rosters these come to mind as upper echelon:

Decent Bet:

Donaldson

Machado

Betts

Bogaerts

If Healthy:

Tulowitzki

Longoria

In discussion (if healthy):

Jones

Bautista

Encarnacion

Hanley

In discussion (if you believe defense):

Kiermaier

[Frobby]

Ke

Tulowitzki is not top 50. Pedroia is not top 25. Davis is better than Jones. Though I like Jones much more.[/bb Donaldson crushed everyone last season. Manny is a better all around player than Davis. Bogaerts might be, but not even close yet.

Adam Jones will never have a season equal to Davis' best, but I consider him to be a considerably better baseball player than Davis. He's been much more valuable overall so far in his career, and I expect he will produce more value over the rest of his career than Davis will. Just my opinion.

[BohKnowsBmore]

Ke

Adam Jones will never have a season equal to Davis' best, but I consider him to be a considerably better baseball player than Davis. He's been much more valuable overall so far in his career, and I expect he will produce more value over the rest of his career than Davis will. Just my opinion.

I would say it's a matter of variance. AJ will be a consistent 3 - 5 win player for the next 5 years IMO, whereas Davis is likely to fluctuate between 2 and 6 wins on a yearly basis.

[Frobby]

I would say it's a matter of variance. AJ will be a consistent 3 - 5 win player for the next 5 years IMO, whereas Davis is likely to fluctuate between 2 and 6 wins on a yearly basis.

To date: Jones 27.5 rWAR, Davis 14.7. I expect the future to look something like the past.

[BohKnowsBmore]

To date: Jones 27.5 rWAR, Davis 14.7. I expect the future to look something like the past.

To be fair, jones started as a full-timer at a much earlier age than Davis. When Davis started getting full-time work in Baltimore in 2012, Jones had been a core member of the team for several years. Davis's WAR in 2013 and 2015 are higher than any individual season posted by jones, however, 2012 and 2014 were below any individual season posted by jones in 5 or 6+ years, hence my comment on it being a matter of variance.

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[Frobby]

To be fair, jones started as a full-timer at a much earlier age than Davis. When Davis started getting full-time work in Baltimore in 2012, Jones had been a core member of the team for several years. Davis's WAR in 2013 and 2015 are higher than any individual season posted by jones, however, 2012 and 2014 were below any individual season posted by jones in 5 or 6+ years, hence my comment on it being a matter of variance.

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In my experience, players who are good enough to be starters in their early 20's are more likely to still be good at 34-35 than the guys who don't get going until their later 20's. We'll see if that holds true here, but I think it will.

[BohKnowsBmore]

In my experience, players who are good enough to be starters in their early 20's are more likely to still be good at 34-35 than the guys who don't get going until their later 20's. We'll see if that holds true here, but I think it will.

I don't disagree with that. I'm not arguing which player is better really. I tend to agree with you that Jones is the "better" player overall. My only point was that Chris is more volatile with higher highs, but lower lows. Ignoring potential decline timelines, so going into 2016, Chris has the potential to provide more value than Jones, but he also has the potential to provide less (sounds obvious, but by this I mean that the range of expected outcomes for Davis is a wider band). That's all I was trying to say.

[scOtt]

[video=youtube;5Ja6nC4IVVQ]

[Frobby]

I don't disagree with that. I'm not arguing which player is better really. I tend to agree with you that Jones is the "better" player overall. My only point was that Chris is more volatile with higher highs, but lower lows. Ignoring potential decline timelines, so going into 2016, Chris has the potential to provide more value than Jones, but he also has the potential to provide less (sounds obvious, but by this I mean that the range of expected outcomes for Davis is a wider band). That's all I was trying to say.

I don't disagree with you. I won't be surprised if Davis has a another season or two that are better than any of Jones'. I'm just saying Jones has been and will be the better player in the medium to long run.

[DrungoHazewood]

To be fair, jones started as a full-timer at a much earlier age than Davis. When Davis started getting full-time work in Baltimore in 2012, Jones had been a core member of the team for several years. Davis's WAR in 2013 and 2015 are higher than any individual season posted by jones, however, 2012 and 2014 were below any individual season posted by jones in 5 or 6+ years, hence my comment on it being a matter of variance.

Being in the majors at an earlier age is a consequence of being a better player. Davis made his debut at 22. Then played his way back to AAA at 23. And 24. And 25.