Chris Davis - Career Home Runs - Where Does He End Up?

[BohKnowsBmore]

So, whether you are a fan of the contract or absolutely hate it, it is clear that Chris Davis is going to be an Oriole for a long time, very likely through the end of his career unless he is dealt. Heading into the 2016 season, Chris has 203 career home runs, 161 as an Oriole and 42 as a Ranger. My question for you is how many does he end up with when his career is through?

If he averages 20 home runs over the seven year contract, he will end up with 343 career home runs.

For his career, Chris has 203 home runs over 883 games (4.34 Games/HR). Keeping this rate over the next seven seasons, he will end up with 428 home runs at an average of 140 games per season, 444 home runs at an average of 150 games per season, and 464 home runs if he somehow averages 162 games per season.

For his Oriole tenure, Chris has 161 home runs over 617 games (3.83 Games/HR). Keeping this rate over the next seven seasons, he will end up with 459 home runs at an average of 140 games per season, 477 home runs at an average of 150 games per season, and 499 home runs if he somehow averages 162 games per season.

It's clearly safe to assume that he will decline from 2013/2015 levels over the contract, but these averages include 2014 and his struggles in Tex as well, so take that for what it is.

If you want to do the math with plate appearances, here are the numbers:

Career - 203 HR, 3,512 PA, 17.30 PA/HR

Orioles - 161 HR, 2559 PA, 15.89 PA/HR

Rangers - 42 HR, 953 PA, 22.69 PA/HR

On a side note/other question, where do you think Davis ends up on the all-time Orioles HR list? Here is the current order through Davis:

1. C. Ripken - 431

2. E. Murray - 343

3. B. Powell - 303

4. B. Robinson - 268

5. R. Palmeiro - 223

6. B. Anderson - 209

7. A. Jones - 193

8. K. Williams - 185

9. K. Singleton - 182

10. F. Robinson - 179

11. H. Clift - 170

12. C. Davis - 161

[survivedc]

I think theres a pretty good chance he passes murray and ends up second. I'm thinking he will have at least 2 more 40 home run seasons and I would bet even in year 7 he will have the ability to hit 20 or so.

[BohKnowsBmore]

I think theres a pretty good chance he passes murray and ends up second. I'm thinking he will have at least 2 more 40 home run seasons and I would bet even in year 7 he will have the ability to hit 20 or so.

For what it's worth he needs 182 home runs to match Murray (thus 183 to pass him). This comes out to an average of 26 per season. If he plays the whole 7 years, I think him catching Murray is a pretty safe bet. Davis had exactly 26 home runs in his 2014 season, which is his low in his 2012 - 2015 Oriole tenure.

[BohKnowsBmore]

For the record, I voted for 400 - 450 and I believe he ends up #2 on the all-time Oriole list.

[crawjo]

He might also be one of those players who still hits plenty of home runs even as he declines. I went with a conservative guess and put him in the 351-400 range, but think he could easily top that and end up in the 451-500 range. It's hard for me to imagine him hitting over 500 home runs...he'd have to have a much stronger second half of his career than anyone seems to be anticipating, something on the level of what David Ortiz has done in his 30s.

[Spy Fox]

He might also be one of those players who still hits plenty of home runs even as he declines. I went with a conservative guess and put him in the 351-400 range, but think he could easily top that and end up in the 451-500 range. It's hard for me to imagine him hitting over 500 home runs...he'd have to have a much stronger second half of his career than anyone seems to be anticipating, something on the level of what David Ortiz has done in his 30s.

I was gonna say something similar. Unless he Ortizes he's not passing Cal or getting to 500. It's possible but definitely not to be expected. It seems a pretty reasonable projection for him to get close to the 400 range though if he stays healthy.

[BohKnowsBmore]

He might also be one of those players who still hits plenty of home runs even as he declines. I went with a conservative guess and put him in the 351-400 range, but think he could easily top that and end up in the 451-500 range. It's hard for me to imagine him hitting over 500 home runs...he'd have to have a much stronger second half of his career than anyone seems to be anticipating, something on the level of what David Ortiz has done in his 30s.

I was gonna say something similar. Unless he Ortizes he's not passing Cal or getting to 500. It's possible but definitely not to be expected. It seems a pretty reasonable projection for him to get close to the 400 range though if he stays healthy.

I think his power and ability to get on base via the walk will let him continue to hit homeruns even as he ages and his XBH-ability/other parts of his offensive game wane. Obviously any amount of serious injury will make that task much more difficult, but I like his chances to get to 400 personally, and think he's a pretty safe bet to get into at least the ~300 range as an oriole and 350+ over his career.

[DrungoHazewood]

According to the implementation of the Bill James Favorite Toy on ESPN.com he will end up with 469 homers and has an 85% chance at 400, a 40% chance at 500, a 17% chance at 600, a 4% chance at 700, and his odds go to zero around 725.

[Camden_yardbird]

He might also be one of those players who still hits plenty of home runs even as he declines. I went with a conservative guess and put him in the 351-400 range, but think he could easily top that and end up in the 451-500 range. It's hard for me to imagine him hitting over 500 home runs...he'd have to have a much stronger second half of his career than anyone seems to be anticipating, something on the level of what David Ortiz has done in his 30s.

We can only hope he has the longevity of David Ortiz or Jim Thom and doesn't end up more in the class of Ryan Howard.

[OFFNY]

o

After 7 more seasons with the Orioles, Davis will be tied with Fred McGriff and Lou Gehrig with 493 career home runs.

I don't know what is going to happen after the completion of the 2022 season (Davis retires, Davis keeps playing for the Orioles, Davis signs with another team, etc.)

[DrungoHazewood]

I know this is a long way off, but based on the Favorite Toy's 40% odds of 500 homers it's not inconceivable... it will be interesting to see what happens if Davis gets to 500. He'll join the Sosa, Raffy, Sheffield list of guys who have no chance at Cooperstown despite meeting an old-school automatic induction tripwire.

I guess Beltre has an outside shot, too, but his power seems to have fallen off at 36. He's going to have multiple gold gloves, near 500 homers, 3000 hits, 600 doubles, probably 80+ WAR. But I get the feeling he's not really considered a HOFer by most.

I'd also think Prince Fielder would approach 500, since he's 31 at already at 311. But he's really fallen off recently and even if you discount his 2014 he's well below Davis' projection.

[Frobby]

I said 351-400, but I'm expecting him to be right at 400 when he finishes up.

[Frobby]

I know this is a long way off, but based on the Favorite Toy's 40% odds of 500 homers it's not inconceivable... it will be interesting to see what happens if Davis gets to 500. He'll join the Sosa, Raffy, Sheffield list of guys who have no chance at Cooperstown despite meeting an old-school automatic induction tripwire.

Is it a given that he would have no chance at the HoF in that scenario? We have a certain perception of Davis today, but if he were to hit 250+ homers in the next 7 years he might be seen a lot differently, especially if that was the leading total over the period. That would mean that he was the leading HR hitter for an entire ten-year period, which I don't think Raffy or Sheffield can say (not sure about Sosa).

In any event, it would be great for the Orioles if Davis hit enough in the next 7 years to be approaching 500. That would mean his contract worked out well.

[DrungoHazewood]

Is it a given that he would have no chance at the HoF in that scenario? We have a certain perception of Davis today, but if he were to hit 250+ homers in the next 7 years he might be seen a lot differently, especially if that was the leading total over the period. That would mean that he was the leading HR hitter for an entire ten-year period, which I don't think Raffy or Sheffield can say (not sure about Sosa).

In any event, it would be great for the Orioles if Davis hit enough in the next 7 years to be approaching 500. That would mean his contract worked out well.

I suppose it depends on the mood of the BBWAA in 15 years. Davis is sitting on 14.5 rWAR at age 30. Even with six really good years he's probably in the low-to-mid 40s. That's not even Jim Rice level, much less John Olerud, and not remotely in Alan Trammell or Lou Whitaker territory. Does a late-career HR run and narrative overcome Vet's Committe-level career value? If that happened 5-10 years ago 30-50% of the writers would just dismiss him as a PED freak.

[backwardsk]

It'd be pretty sweet if Anderson is in 8th place going into 2017.

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