Fangraphs: Tanking, in the MLB

[hoosiers]

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/tanking-does-mlb-really-have-a-problem/Is there still a large group of Orioles fans that think that tanking is the right approach for the franchise to rebuild?

Nothing wrong with tanking in MLB, but the NBA is a very different beast. In the NBA, pretty much the main way to get good is to have three high draft picks in a row and clear unwanted salaries in that time frame. The high draft pick makes a big difference.

[Can_of_corn]

Nothing wrong with tanking in MLB, but the NBA is a very different beast. In the NBA, pretty much the main way to get good is to have three high draft picks in a row and clear unwanted salaries in that time frame. The high draft pick makes a big difference.

Of course with the lottery you can alienate a fan base for an entire season to end up with the fourth pick.

[Frobby]

But the O's also have a handful of untradeable contracts and a roster that has at least a possibility of reaching the playoffs in 2016.

Dan's moves the last couple of years have postponed any serious rebuilding effort until after he leaves.

Right. Teams that have "at least a possibility of reaching the playoffs" in the upcoming season generally don't rebuild.

I do think that if the O's are struggling in July you'll see some future-oriented trades. For now, they're trying to compete.

[Frobby]

The nats were able to do this, but only because everyone knew that Strasburg and Harper we're once in a generation talents a year or so before the draft.

Strasburg wasn't. He's not even Sonny Grey.

He was.

He got hurt.

The guy I saw before he got hurt, he was special.

Of course almost all of them get hurt.

True or false: Strasburg is likely to be better than anyone in the Orioles' rotation in 2016?

Yeah, post-injury he's not a "generational" pitcher. Still, a 54-37 record, 126 ERA+ and 14.0 rWAR, 18.7 fWAR through age 26 is far from awful. Put it this way, he's been better through age 26 than Ben McDonald, who is about the only other pitcher I can recall who received Strasburg's level of hype.

[Hallas]

True or false: Strasburg is likely to be better than anyone in the Orioles' rotation in 2016?

Yeah, post-injury he's not a "generational" pitcher. Still, a 54-37 record, 126 ERA+ and 14.0 rWAR, 18.7 fWAR through age 26 is far from awful. Put it this way, he's been better through age 26 than Ben McDonald, who is about the only other pitcher I can recall who received Strasburg's level of hype.

Todd Van Poppel?

The fact that MLB teams start 10 guys in the AL and use at least 19 guys on their roster constantly is a pretty good indicator that you need to build a good team, and lucking out on one player won't work. The WAR valuations for players like Lebron or Jordan or Curry in their primes in comparison to the best MLB seasons are indicative of that. Barry Bonds in his most roided out year was worth like 11 wins, and that was considered to be a freak of nature season.

[Stotle]

Right. Teams that have "at least a possibility of reaching the playoffs" in the upcoming season generally don't rebuild.

I do think that if the O's are struggling in July you'll see some future-oriented trades. For now, they're trying to compete.

My issue has always been the team has refused (recently) to make any real moves with the long-term in mind. I get "wanting to compete" but think it's a false dichotomy to present it as either you are trying to compete or you are burning it down and rebuilding. The goal should be competing without having to sacrifice future viability. And Baltimore has continually fallen short of that goal (on paper -- I guess we'll see how it ultimately shakes out in practice).

[Frobby]

My issue has always been the team has refused (recently) to make any real moves with the long-term in mind. I get "wanting to compete" but think it's a false dichotomy to present it as either you are trying to compete or you are burning it down and rebuilding. The goal should be competing without having to sacrifice future viability. And Baltimore has continually fallen short of that goal (on paper -- I guess we'll see how it ultimately shakes out in practice).

Well, I see a distinction between (1) making "win now" moves, and (2) failing to make "win later" moves. Either way, you are preferring the short term over the long term, but there's a difference between trading away assets that should pay off in the future, and failing to trade for such assets. The O's don't have much in the way of surplus talent that they can trade away without hurting the "now."

[Stotle]

Well, I see a distinction between (1) making "win now" moves, and (2) failing to make "win later" moves. Either way, you are preferring the short term over the long term, but there's a difference between trading away assets that should pay off in the future, and failing to trade for such assets. The O's don't have much in the way of surplus talent that they can trade away without hurting the "now."

It's also decisions to give up picks for signings, trading draft picks/international slot money, and the like. You can also argue that the incremental improvements the Orioles may have gotten from many (most?) of these moves have not really been difference makers in terms of the team being competitive.

[weams]

True or false: Strasburg is likely to be better than anyone in the Orioles' rotation in 2016?

Yeah, post-injury he's not a "generational" pitcher. Still, a 54-37 record, 126 ERA+ and 14.0 rWAR, 18.7 fWAR through age 26 is far from awful. Put it this way, he's been better through age 26 than Ben McDonald, who is about the only other pitcher I can recall who received Strasburg's level of hype.

All I said was that he was not close to generational. And surgery is part of the deal with pitchers. Almost all of them.

[weams]

My issue has always been the team has refused (recently) to make any real moves with the long-term in mind. I get "wanting to compete" but think it's a false dichotomy to present it as either you are trying to compete or you are burning it down and rebuilding. The goal should be competing without having to sacrifice future viability. And Baltimore has continually fallen short of that goal (on paper -- I guess we'll see how it ultimately shakes out in practice).

Buck and Duquette never indicated that they were playing a long game at any point. Did they?

[Stotle]

Buck and Duquette never indicated that they were playing a long game at any point. Did they?

I'm not calling the Orioles a bunch of liars -- I'm calling them (to an extent) short-sighted and threatening to return me to the days of watching a bad baseball team in the not-to-distant future, and for a decent stretch of time.

[Stotle]

All I said was that he was not close to generational. And surgery is part of the deal with pitchers. Almost all of them.

He was a generational amateur talent. No question and not debatable. He has had his pro career sidetracked by injury.

[weams]

I'm not calling the Orioles a bunch of liars -- I'm calling them (to an extent) short-sighted and threatening to return me to the days of watching a bad baseball team in the not-to-distant future, and for a decent stretch of time.

Oh sure. It's not a long game kinda organization.

[Frobby]

Buck and Duquette never indicated that they were playing a long game at any point. Did they?

Dan has many times emphasized the importance of a good farm system. Of course, he also has made it clear that one function of a farm system is to provide tradeable assets.

I agree with Stotle, we've wandered a bit too far into "win now" mode the last couple of years, and haven't gotten a very good return on the assets we traded away.

[Frobby]

Oh sure. It's not a long game kinda organization.

The idea is to do both. Nobody's going to be happy if we're competitive for five years and then stink for ten.