Olney: Orioles

[wildcard]

As far as a window goes I think its open as long as Buck and Dan are with the O's. And there is no way to know if that stops at 2018 or if they are extended.

John with probably take over for Peter at some point in the future. He knows the business side and seems like a smart guy to me.

I don't know how anyone can predict the O's future. Their farm system is not a good indicator when the O's philosophy seems to be add what ever players are needed to contend. Heck, predicting the budget is impossible now if they really go to 150m this year.

Dan's acquisition methods got the O's a division title and almost to the WS in 2014. The starters took a vacation last year. Didn't come close to what they did in 2012-2014. There was no predicting that.

Now the O's appear to be reloading in Duquette style. Worrying about the future is no worth doing. Not when they will spend big for players they want. Make minor trades and acquisition that bring back players that other teams wish they had like Chris Lee and Jason Garcia.

The O's top two minor league teams were in the playoffs last year. There are some players in that group that are not nationally touted that appear to be coveted by other teams.

The O's are likely to have 4 rookies to start the season in Givens, Bundy, Kim and Rickard. That's a lot of rookies for a team with a bad farm system.

Dan doesn't build by the normal minor league building method. But after 4 years he appears to know what he is doing IMO.

[Stotle]

The O's are liklye to have 4 rookies to start the season in Givens, Bundy, Kim and Rickard. That's a lot of rookies for a team with a bad farm system.

Dan doesn't build by the normal minor league building method. But after 4 years he appears to know what he is doing IMO.

*Printing playoff tickets for 2017-2020*

[wildcard]

*Printing playoff tickets for 2017-2020*

I don't think anyone can predict if Givens replaces Britton in the future, Kim becomes an above average left fielder or Bundy is a TOR starter. But the potential is there and that is about all any team can ask from a group of rookies.

Heck, 3rd rounder Mike Wright looks like he is being pushed back the minors after going 9-1 with a 2.22 ERA at Norfolk last year. Who is to say he doesn't come up and have success in his 2nd try at the majors. There is not telling what may happen.

[Stotle]

I don't think anyone can predict if Givens replaces Britton in the future, Kim becomes an above average left fielder or Bundy is a TOR starter. But the potential is there and that is about all any team can ask from a group of rookies.

Heck, 3rd rounder Mike Wright looks like he is being pushed back the minors after going 9-1 with a 2.22 ERA at Norfolk last year. Who is to say he doesn't come up and have success in his 2nd try at the majors. There is not telling what may happen.

I agree with you. You can't predict with certainty. But we can look across organizations and note that the Orioles are not unique in possessing the types of talents you're mentioning. And when the depth of talent is not as great it puts more pressure on those players hitting, because you do not have similar talent to fall back on if your wave flames out (which is what has made the Harvey/Bundy injuries so frustrating).

[wildcard]

I agree with you. You can't predict with certainty. But we can look across organizations and note that the Orioles are not unique in possessing the types of talents you're mentioning. And when the depth of talent is not as great it puts more pressure on those players hitting, because you do not have similar talent to fall back on if your wave flames out (which is what has made the Harvey/Bundy injuries so frustrating).

But it appears that the draft is not the only place that Dan gets talent. Kim, Lee, Garcia. Then if he signs major leaguers like Fowler and Gallardo. It a different acquisition method then the Cardinals. But Dan and Buck make it work.

There are players that the national critics are touting like Mancini and Scott. I just would not bet against Dan. Not when he as won as much as anyone over the past 4 years.

[Stotle]

But it appears that the draft is not the only place that Dan gets talent. Kim, Lee, Garcia. Then if he signs major leaguers like Fowler and Gallardo. It a different acquisition method then the Cardinals. But Dan and Buck make it work.

There are players that the national critics are touting like Mancini and Scott. I just would not bet against Dan. Not when he as won as much as anyone over the past 4 years.

Why would you think trades and international signings are *different* avenues the Orioles are exploring. Dozens of teams are doing the same thing in addition to their draft work.

[wildcard]

Why would you think trades and international signings are *different* avenues the Orioles are exploring. Dozens of teams are doing the same thing in addition to their draft work.

Some do. Some don't. Dan use of the Rule 5 draft (Garcia) and trading international draft slots for Lee seem to be alternative paths that many teams don't take.

We are talking about Dan giving up draft picks as compensation for signing major league players. If he uses other methods to acquire talent it might work out as well.

I didn't think the O's could retain FA players the way they have this off season. That also helps in keeping the level of talent at the major league level high.

[MDtransplant757]

Some do. Some don't. Dan use of the Rule 5 draft (Garcia) and trading international draft slots for Lee seem to be alternative paths that many teams don't take.

We are talking about Dan giving up draft picks as compensation for signing major league players. If he uses other methods to acquire talent it might work out as well.

I didn't think the O's could retain FA players the way they have this off season. That also helps in keeping the level of talent at the major league level high.

That's why Dan's teams worked well in Boston.

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[hoosiers]

You seem more pessimistic than most around here about our chances of contending this year. I don't think it's obvious that any of the other AL East teams are better than us with Gallardo and Fowler added (which, of course, hasn't happened yet). I'm expecting a fun and highly competitive season. If it isn't, I'd rather throw in the towel in July than now.

I am not so pessimistic about the team with Fowler and Gallardo. As mentioned by VaTech, this team carries a lot of guys with a large variation in possible production. I don't think Gallardo and Chen are an even swap, but I think there will be some bounce back from Tillman, MGon and there is a nice ceiling with Gausman. I think there is also potential for Wieters to perform like a 2-4 WAR guy.

I am upset with three things. First, this is not a team, with Gallardo and Fowler, to be ramping up payroll to $150M and give up draft picks. Folks want to get excited about a team that "has a chance", great, but we are putting a lot of marbles on the table for a team that in a hundred seasons would probably miss the playoffs between 75-90 of those seasons. This is not a team to be making these investments and risks with. Further, we might take similar risks next year as salaries of Britton and Machado escalate and most of the roster remains the same.

Second, where has this investment from ownership been all these years? I know we get an incremental $15M from the CBA this year and our owner has been pocketing massive profits from MASN and the Os, but the investment this year compared to prior years is ridiculous. We could have spent this $ better, earlier and been in better position to compete today.

Third, this strategy of plugging holes in the major league team at the expense of our farm system is going to result in some fairly weak teams in 2018 and beyond. We have maybe five guys on the horizon who project to be major leaguers and we are going to need all five (Mancini, Bundy, Harvey, Cisco and Reyes) besides some guys drafted in 2015. While those names may sound sufficient to some, I believe Stotle will tell you that most major league farm systems may have 10-15 guys of that quality after the 2016 draft and our forfeited picks. It didn't have to be this way. DD has run has through an extreme amount of talent to get to this point, without trading any veterans, and it's regrettable.

[backwardsk]

We have $30M in salary coming off the books next season with (Wieters, Trumbo, and Matusz). There's no need to spend heavily in FA to replace them. We can absorb the Arb increases to Manny, Tillman, and Britton though I think they could shop Britton to help restock the minors.

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[tntoriole]

I am not so pessimistic about the team with Fowler and Gallardo. As mentioned by VaTech, this team carries a lot of guys with a large variation in possible production. I don't think Gallardo and Chen are an even swap, but I think there will be some bounce back from Tillman, MGon and there is a nice ceiling with Gausman. I think there is also potential for Wieters to perform like a 2-4 WAR guy.

I am upset with three things. First, this is not a team, with Gallardo and Fowler, to be ramping up payroll to $150M and give up draft picks. Folks want to get excited about a team that "has a chance", great, but we are putting a lot of marbles on the table for a team that in a hundred seasons would probably miss the playoffs between 75-90 of those seasons. This is not a team to be making these investments and risks with. Further, we might take similar risks next year as salaries of Britton and Machado escalate and most of the roster remains the same.

Second, where has this investment from ownership been all these years? I know we get an incremental $15M from the CBA this year and our owner has been pocketing massive profits from MASN and the Os, but the investment this year compared to prior years is ridiculous. We could have spent this $ better, earlier and been in better position to compete today.

Third, this strategy of plugging holes in the major league team at the expense of our farm system is going to result in some fairly weak teams in 2018 and beyond. We have maybe five guys on the horizon who project to be major leaguers and we are going to need all five (Mancini, Bundy, Harvey, Cisco and Reyes) besides some guys drafted in 2015. While those names may sound sufficient to some, I believe Stotle will tell you that most major league farm systems may have 10-15 guys of that quality after the 2016 draft and our forfeited picks. It didn't have to be this way. DD has run has through an extreme amount of talent to get to this point, without trading any veterans, and it's regrettable.

In 2010-2011, average attendance for both years was just over 1.7 million...from 2012- current- well over 2.1 million average including 2.46 million in 2014....that is 400,000-700,000 more paying customers per year, so, in answer to your question about "why now" for the investment from ownership, well, maybe three years of 400,000-700,000 more paying customers allows for a significant increase in payroll in 2016 and beyond (and the inevitable increase in ticket prices this year as well). Or maybe it is being 87 that leads you to decide to spend more on the seasons you have left. Who knows? If the Os surprise you and win the AL East and the World Series in 2016, will having "fairly weak" teams in 2018 and beyond be OK with you? (Not that I necessarily agree about the "fairly weak" predictions.)

[$Greatness$]

Reading that makes me more depressed. We were so close and did nothing. Oh well, it was fun while it lasted.

[Frobby]

I

As far as a window goes I think its open as long as Buck and Dan are with the O's. And there is no way to know if that stops at 2018 or if they are extended.

John with probably take over for Peter at some point in the future. He knows the business side and seems like a smart guy to me.

I don't know how anyone can predict the O's future. Their farm system is not a good indicator when the O's philosophy seems to be add what ever players are needed to contend. Heck, predicting the budget is impossible now if they really go to 150m this year.

Dan's acquisition methods got the O's a division title and almost to the WS in 2014. The starters took a vacation last year. Didn't come close to what they did in 2012-2014. There was no predicting that.

Now the O's appear to be reloading in Duquette style. Worrying about the future is no worth doing. Not when they will spend big for players they want. Make minor trades and acquisition that bring back players that other teams wish they had like Chris Lee and Jason Garcia.

The O's top two minor league teams were in the playoffs last year. There are some players in that group that are not nationally touted that appear to be coveted by other teams.

The O's are likely to have 4 rookies to start the season in Givens, Bundy, Kim and Rickard. That's a lot of rookies for a team with a bad farm system.

Dan doesn't build by the normal minor league building method. But after 4 years he appears to know what he is doing IMO.

I think you are making conclusions about Dan's philosophy and abilities that are not warranted. The O's cannot spend their way around a poor farm system over the long run, and I don't think Dan believes otherwise.

[weams]

I think you are making conclusions about Dan's philosophy and abilities that are not warranted. The O's cannot spend their way around a poor farm system over the long run, and I don't think Dan believes otherwise.

Your take would be mine as well. You said it much better than I could have.

[Frobby]

I am not so pessimistic about the team with Fowler and Gallardo. As mentioned by VaTech, this team carries a lot of guys with a large variation in possible production. I don't think Gallardo and Chen are an even swap, but I think there will be some bounce back from Tillman, MGon and there is a nice ceiling with Gausman. I think there is also potential for Wieters to perform like a 2-4 WAR guy.

I am upset with three things. First, this is not a team, with Gallardo and Fowler, to be ramping up payroll to $150M and give up draft picks. Folks want to get excited about a team that "has a chance", great, but we are putting a lot of marbles on the table for a team that in a hundred seasons would probably miss the playoffs between 75-90 of those seasons. This is not a team to be making these investments and risks with. Further, we might take similar risks next year as salaries of Britton and Machado escalate and most of the roster remains the same.

Second, where has this investment from ownership been all these years? I know we get an incremental $15M from the CBA this year and our owner has been pocketing massive profits from MASN and the Os, but the investment this year compared to prior years is ridiculous. We could have spent this $ better, earlier and been in better position to compete today.

Third, this strategy of plugging holes in the major league team at the expense of our farm system is going to result in some fairly weak teams in 2018 and beyond. We have maybe five guys on the horizon who project to be major leaguers and we are going to need all five (Mancini, Bundy, Harvey, Cisco and Reyes) besides some guys drafted in 2015. While those names may sound sufficient to some, I believe Stotle will tell you that most major league farm systems may have 10-15 guys of that quality after the 2016 draft and our forfeited picks. It didn't have to be this way. DD has run has through an extreme amount of talent to get to this point, without trading any veterans, and it's regrettable.

Your take is that the current team, with Gallardo and Fowler added, would make the playoffs 10-25% of the time. I'm more optimistic, and feel it's more like a 50% chance, whereas without them it's maybe a 10-20% chance. If you see the odds the way I do, the sacrifice of the drafts picks is much more defensible than if one sees the odds the way you do. Either way, I do agree there is going to be a price to pay down the road.