Olney: Orioles

[Babypowder]

The O's don't possess enough resources for a full throttle all in.

Oh, I'm well aware of that. I just don't see how media members and others see Yovani Gallardo and go "Wow, they're all in!". I see Yovani Gallardo and shrug.

[Il BuonO]

The O's don't possess the FO resources for a full throttle retooling.

[Babypowder]

Most neutral observes see him as an upgrade over Vance Worley. Also, most saw the O's payroll being around 120-130 max when the offseason started. It could blow into the 150M range with Gallardo and Fowler. Also, whether you like the team or not, signing Gallardo and Fowler basically closes all of the major holes left on this team.

I still see the whole rotation as a major hole, and Gallardo likely to be contributing to that hole.

[Stotle]

You asked what the excuse was for the last two seasons? I took that as asking for an explanation of the organizations motivations for making the moves they did. It's obvious the the focus was on the present at the expense of the future. I wasn't trying to condone every move or even the direction of the team.

Is your point that things could have been done differently? Duh. No kidding.

I'm fine with you agreeing with me.

[Scrat1]

Any time you reduce a draft-related discussion to "will this pick in and of itself determine our fate" you are always going to get a "no" answer. But if you do that five or six times all you look up to find your system light five to six 1st/2nd rounders...

Exactly. I don't understand why some people are being so thick about this.

At bottom, I think it's too soon to start a retooling program. They've got three years with Machado and Jones and they are trying to compete while that window is open. I'm not totally thrilled with the way they spent the funds that apparently were available, but I think the decision to try to build up the current team made sense. It may work or it may not. If it's not working in July, I'd make a sharp course correction and trade some veterans for prospects. But I'm hoping it won't come to that.

But I do mostly agree with this. The Orioles, partly due to bad luck and partly due to a poor decision making, are in a terrible situation, where we're a middling team in a relatively tough division with a barren farm system. At this point I'm okay with punting on the picks because I think the team is too far gone and we're going to have a to do a total rebuild in 2-3 years. I wish this weren't the case, but DD's insistence on pissing away prospects for short term lotto tickets has turned us into the Phillies from a few years ago. It's totally unsustainable, and now we're so far gone we may as well try to make the most of these next few years.

[El Gordo]

So in hind sight what tweaks did we miss out on in the 2013-14 off season? Trade CD after his 53 HR year? Don't sign Ubaldo and Cruz to keep the picks?

[Babypowder]

I understand the concerns over Gallardo but no one mentions the career best 124 ERA+ or the 4.1 WAR from last year.

Sure they do, I just don't put much stock in ERA or it's variants or rWAR for pitchers. I see stuff falling off a cliff, a terrible second half, not getting deep in games, plummeting k rate, and high walk rate.

[Frobby]

So every single piece the team has had under control was indispensable? No possible tweaking in any form. Got it.

Do you have any thoughts on who they should have moved, and when? I think the most easy candidate to single out now is Bud Norris, since at the end of 2014 we had six starters for five spots. But I kind of liked having the depth, which had come in pretty handy in 2014. And we certainly didn't know in advance which of our six guys would be the big flop in 2015.

[Stotle]

Do you have any thoughts on who they should have moved, and when? I think the most easy candidate to single out now is Bud Norris, since at the end of 2014 we had six starters for five spots. But I kind of liked having the depth, which had come in pretty handy in 2014. And we certainly didn't know in advance which of our six guys would be the big flop in 2015.

Norris makes sense.

Davis after his 2013 is a possibility.

Wieters after 2013 would have made sense for the right return.

JJ Hardy after 2013 would have made a lot of sense -- coming off a solid year, one cheap year left and a reasonably-priced year left, Machado capable of taking over.

Britton any time over the last 10 months.

I'd have to go back through everything. Less about making a giant, franchise altering move, and more about tweaking here and there to try and stay flexible and inexpensive. Obviously trading away the minor league pitching hasn't turned out well, though in a vacuum I don't know that any of the trades were horrible. More the aggregate impact of having none of those arms, with all of them essentially major league ready now when the Orioles really need arms and depth.

[Enjoy Terror]

That should have been the 2016 team. Welcome to Birdland.

If you ignore the fact that you're claiming those 9 trades wouldn't have brought back any major league ready talent, and for some reason you seem to think that signing Kim would've been a mistake anyway?

[backwardsk]

If you ignore the fact that you're claiming those 9 trades wouldn't have brought back any major league ready talent, and for some reason you seem to think that signing Kim would've been a mistake anyway?

I wouldn't say the Kim would be a mistake. It just wouldn't make much sense, or move the needle, if the plan was to build for four years down the road

[tntoriole]

Norris was a huge miss. Some of us were on record about it. Others thought the trade Norris club was crazy. It should have happened. He was clearly living on borrowed time.

Not trading Britton right now would be a huge miss IMO. I've been advocating it since the All Star Break last year. We can trade Britton and have a marginal loss at most due to the redundancy in the bullpen. Trading redundancies to shore up weaknesses is the name of the game IMO.

If they can't sign Manny before 2017, I think you HAVE to trade him after this season. It simply isn't a question. You can't lose that guy for a pick. My hope is still that they sign him.

I didn't understand some of the moves that happened, especially in mid-season the last couple years. However, I do think there are some people here that would continually plan for the future and never actually get to the present. Several of us are just too conservative IMHO. Of course, far more of us are either not analytical at all or are far too aggressive.

I agree with RZ's stance. I wasn't happy that Wieters accepted (though I still would have made the offer). I think there were better ways to sign a big free agent than what we did for Davis, but the contract isn't awful and there is something to be said for continuity/knowing your investment's personality. Once Wieters and Davis happened, I've got to say that I'm pleasantly surprised with the willingness to fill the starter and OF holes (assuming it happens).

At the very least I expect this to be an interesting, competitive team. As a fan I'm not sure I should expect more when entering spring training each year.

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Agree!

DD has not made one of those traditional restocking kinds of moves...i.e. selling a ML starter asset for high prospects either during a season or in the offseason, since he has been here. It does not seem to be in his repertoire (or it could be the Buck nugget influence). But, having said that, DD does throw a lot of stuff at the wall (much more than an Andy Macphail ever did, for example) and some of it sticks, some of it overperforms, some of it gives Buck flexibility. If they sign these two free agents, this WILL be an "interesting, competitive team" and if the pitching moves back even a bit to its 2014 level, this team will again be a beast ( to the surprise of the pundits, anyway).

[Enjoy Terror]

I wouldn't say the Kim would be a mistake. It just wouldn't make much sense, or move the needle, if the plan was to build for four years down the road

He's completely cost controlled until then. Why doesn't it make sense? He's cheap major league ready talent, a perfect solution for a team in a rebuild. What are you saying?

[Can_of_corn]

I wouldn't say the Kim would be a mistake. It just wouldn't make much sense, or move the needle, if the plan was to build for four years down the road

The cost is minimal. You need someone to play left field. If he pans out you can also flip him.

[backwardsk]

He's completely cost controlled until then. Why doesn't it make sense? He's cheap major league ready talent, a perfect solution for a team in a rebuild. What are you saying?

Kim is "cost controlled until then"? Is that true? I thought he was on a two year deal, similar to Chen on a 4 year deal? Do we have Kim's rights for six years?

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