Olney: Orioles

[weams]

http://espn.go.com/blog/buster-olney/insider/post?id=12281&ex_cid=InsiderTwitter_olney_oriolesconsiderbeforesigninggallardofowler

The Baltimore Orioles must weigh a competitive future as they discuss the possible signing of pitcher Yovani Gallardo and outfielder Dexter Fowler, writes Peter Schmuck. Roch Kubatko digs a little deeper into the Orioles' pursuit.

The Kansas City Royals played to the last inning of the last game of the World Series in 2014, and last fall, they took the next step, beating the Mets for the championship. This group of Kansas City players just accomplished what the Orioles' franchise has not since 1983, not since Cal Ripken ably speared Garry Maddox's line drive.

But the possible window for success for the Orioles is similar to that of the Royals, who have bet a lot on the next two years before Lorenzo Cain, Eric Hosmer and Mike Moustakas become eligible for free agency.

As Schmuck wrote in his piece, the Orioles cannot take lightly the idea of forfeiting their first two draft picks at a time when their farm system is considered to be one of baseball's worsts. Keith Law ranked Baltimore's collection of prospects 27th among the 30 teams. The Baltimore organization has been greatly sabotaged by injuries to its best young minor league pitchers, Dylan Bundy and Hunter Harvey.

With the Blue Jays built for another run at a division title, the Red Sox improved by the additions of David Price, Craig Kimbrel and Carson Smith, and the Yankees and Rays again formidable, it's not even clear that the Orioles can be good enough to compete at the top of the AL East, as they did in 2014. Some rival evaluators believe the Orioles should be realistic, follow the example of many other mid-market and small-market franchises and focus on restocking, going back into a cycle from which they could emerge in another four or five years.

But there are factors pushing the Orioles to go all-in.

The rest insider.

[Babypowder]

http://espn.go.com/blog/buster-olney/insider/post?id=12281&ex_cid=InsiderTwitter_olney_oriolesconsiderbeforesigninggallardofowler

The rest insider.

I'm not understanding the notion that signing Gallardo and Fowler is "going all in". These are not all in players, they are half measures. All in is signing top tier free agents in my view. Signing middling leftovers attached to draft pick compensation is not "all in". It's it's a desperate attempt to shore up weaknesses with marginal upgrades.

[TheDirtyBird]

This is just from my perspective, but I feel "going all in" would have been signing a David Price, Jason Heyward, Davis and O'Day, but again thats just me and I'm not a professional baseball writer

[backwardsk]

If the plan is to give up now and "emerge in four to five years," then they shouldn't have signed Davis, Kim, and O'Day and they should have traded Jones, Machado, Britton, Tillman, Schoop, Jimenez, Schoop, Gausman, and Gonzalez.

1B Walker

2B Flaherty

SS Hardy

3B Tolleson

RF Reimold

CF Lough

LF Alvarez

DH Paredes

Wright

Wilson

Odie

Worley

Jones

Givens

Brach

Bundy

Drake

Matusz

McFarland

Roe

That should have been the 2016 team. Welcome to Birdland.

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[ExileAngelos]

Emerge in 4 or 5 years? When Angelos may no longer be with us? When Manny is in pinstripes? When Buck is retired? When the face of the franchise, Adam Jones, is no longer under contract?

[MDK02]

If the plan is to give up now and "emerge in four to five years," then they shouldn't have signed Davis, Kim, and O'Day and they should have traded Jones, Machado, Britton, Tillman, Schoop, Jimenez, Schoop, Gausman, and Gonzalez.

1B Walker

2B Flaherty

SS Hardy

3B Tolleson

RF Reimold

CF Lough

LF Alvarez

DH Paredes

Wright

Wilson

Odie

Worley

Jones

Givens

Brach

Bundy

Drake

Matusz

McFarland

Roe

That should have been the 2016 team. Welcome to Birdland.

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How many games does that team win? 20?

[Stotle]

If the plan is to give up now and "emerge in four to five years," then they shouldn't have signed Davis, Kim, and O'Day and they should have traded Jones, Machado, Britton, Tillman, Schoop, Jimenez, Schoop, Gausman, and Gonzalez.

1B Walker

2B Flaherty

SS Hardy

3B Tolleson

RF Reimold

CF Lough

LF Alvarez

DH Paredes

Wright

Wilson

Odie

Worley

Jones

Givens

Brach

Bundy

Drake

Matusz

McFarland

Roe

That should have been the 2016 team. Welcome to Birdland.

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I know folks continually deny this, but there is a middle ground between burning down the house and continually plugging the 25-man with FA and mid-season trades that drain the system and the avenues for amateur acquisition...

[hoosiers]

If the FO were to pivot to a re-stocking of the farm system, I do not believe it would take another four or five years. There is an opportunity with this year's draft picks, the international opportunity available this year and the dealing of veterans like Wieters, Jones, Britton and others that should provide a strong core to compete in three years centered around Machado, Schoop and Gausman.

Instead, our FO appears ready to double-down on the current team - forfeiting draft picks and ramping up payroll with above average but nowhere near all-star caliber players. It is a dangerous bet based on assessments of the team from most analytics and the current state of our farm system. It seems like the chances of success are fairly dubious and I hope DD hangs around into 2018 and 2019 for the heavy losing we appear in line to experience.

[backwardsk]

I know folks continually deny this, but there is a middle ground between burning down the house and continually plugging the 25-man with FA and mid-season trades that drain the system and the avenues for amateur acquisition...

Do you think the 14 and 29 picks alone turn the tide for the farm system? They would still be bottom third. Why not trade assets that have value and won't be here in five years. (I know Gausman and Schoop would overlap a year).

Why not be the Brewers?

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[Stotle]

Do you think the 14 and 29 picks alone turn the tide for the farm system? They would still be bottom third. Why not trade assets that have value and won't be here in five years. (I know Gausman and Schoop would overlap a year).

Why not be the Brewers?

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The Brewers would not trade Gausman, Machado, Schoop. I guess if you want to dump all of those other guys you could. I think you could have moved 2-3 players over the last two years, saved a bunch of money, bolstered your system, built in a lot more flexibility, and maintained your opportunities to continually add to the system via international signings and the draft.

Any time you reduce a draft-related discussion to "will this pick in and of itself determine our fate" you are always going to get a "no" answer. But if you do that five or six times all you look up to find your system light five to six 1st/2nd rounders...

[Stotle]

I was not for offering Wieters the QO or for a lot of other moves. However, once those moves were made, I think signing Gallardo and Fowler make sense. Without signing them it was just treading water without changing direction (retooling or rebuilding). Now it is a genuine "future be damned, going for it now" team. I don't like it, but it makes more sense than not making these two moves.

All the talk for a year about how important the 2016 draft was for this team and the abundance of picks seems kind of embarassing now (assuming we give up the two picks). The optimist in me says that the O's can still have a good draft in 2016, hope the 2015 draft turns out well, and hope that some of Bundy/Harvey/Mancini/Sisco/Reyes/Walker turn into good ML players.

Another positive spin on this, is that the Orioles will hopefully have some tradeable chips if things don't go well this season.

If the team is performing so poorly as to be uncontrovertibly eliminated from contention (which is what it would take to sell) I am not sure how confident I am that these tradeable assets will be that appealing. I guess we can hope that any underperformance comes solely from guys that wouldn't be tradeable anyway.

[Stotle]

If the FO were to pivot to a re-stocking of the farm system, I do not believe it would take another four or five years. There is an opportunity with this year's draft picks, the international opportunity available this year and the dealing of veterans like Wieters, Jones, Britton and others that should provide a strong core to compete in three years centered around Machado, Schoop and Gausman.

Instead, our FO appears ready to double-down on the current team - forfeiting draft picks and ramping up payroll with above average but nowhere near all-star caliber players. It is a dangerous bet based on assessments of the team from most analytics and the current state of our farm system. It seems like the chances of success are fairly dubious and I hope DD hangs around into 2018 and 2019 for the heavy losing we appear in line to experience.

My frustration is being in a situation where you even have to entertain massive sell-offs. Sure would be nice to be planning for the short term and long term simultaneously when team building.

[bobmc]

i know folks continually deny this, but there is a middle ground between burning down the house and continually plugging the 25-man with fa and mid-season trades that drain the system and the avenues for amateur acquisition...

Yo lo

[backwardsk]

The Brewers would not trade Gausman, Machado, Schoop. I guess if you want to dump all of those other guys you could. I think you could have moved 2-3 players over the last two years, saved a bunch of money, bolstered your system, built in a lot more flexibility, and maintained your opportunities to continually add to the system via international signings and the draft.

Any time you reduce a draft-related discussion to "will this pick in and of itself determine our fate" you are always going to get a "no" answer. But if you do that five or six times all you look up to find your system light five to six 1st/2nd rounders...

How are you so sure Milwaukee wouldn't trade those players? They don't have those guys. They did trade a 4.3 WAR pre-arb guy with four more years of control during their tank seasons.

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[Stotle]

Yo lo

Guilty.....haha