Olney: Orioles

[wildcard]

I

I think you are making conclusions about Dan's philosophy and abilities that are not warranted. The O's cannot spend their way around a poor farm system over the long run, and I don't think Dan believes otherwise.

We have 4 years of history to look at. Dan finds cheap players that help.

2012 - Chen, Gonzalez, Hammel, Ayala, Saunders, McLouth, Flaherty, Pearce

2013 - Feldman, McFarland, Norris, Valencia

2014 - Cruz, Ubaldo, Young, Brach, Webb, Paredes, Hundley

2015 - Dan missed with De Aza, Snider, Parmelee and Parra

2016 - Trumbo, Kim, and maybe Gallardo and Fowler

So three out of 4 years he added relative cheap players that help the team win. None of those players were from the farm system.

The fifth year is still in development.

Dan and Buck have won the most game in the AL with those addition. It a philosophy that has worked for them.

I am not saying that help from the farm system in not important but Dan finds other ways to add players. And it works.

[Can_of_corn]

We have 4 years of history to look at. Dan finds cheap players that help.

2012 - Chen, Gonzalez, Hammel, Ayala, Strop, Saunders, McLouth, Flaherty

2013 - Feldman, McFarland, Norris, Valencia

2014 - Cruz, Ubaldo, Young, Brach, Webb, Paredes, Hundley

2015 - Dan missed with De Aza, Snider, Parmelee and Parra

2016 - Trumbo, Kim, and maybe Gallardo and Fowler

So three out of 4 years he added relative cheap players that help the team win. None of those players were from the farm system.

The fifth year is still in development.

Dan and Buck have won the most game in the AL with those addition. It a philosophy that has worked for them.

I am not saying that help from the farm system in not important but Dan finds other ways to add players. And it works.

Strop joined the team in 2011.

I wouldn't call all those acquisitions cheap, especially since three of them cost draft picks.

[backwardsk]

Strop joined the team in 2011.

I wouldn't call all those acquisitions cheap, especially since three of them cost draft picks.

Two of them netted draft picks.

Pearce could be added here as well.

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[wildcard]

Strop joined the team in 2011.

I wouldn't call all those acquisitions cheap, especially since three of them cost draft picks.

Thanks for the correction on Strop.

Dan has been a budget oriented manager until this off season. Losing draft choice instead of spending money was a tradeoff that worked to stay in budget. Not saying I like it but its what he has done. And he has won.

[wildcard]

Two of them netted draft picks.

Pearce could be added here as well.

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Thanks. I added Pearce.

[Frobby]

We have 4 years of history to look at. Dan finds cheap players that help.

2012 - Chen, Gonzalez, Hammel, Ayala, Strop, Saunders, McLouth, Flaherty

2013 - Feldman, McFarland, Norris, Valencia

2014 - Cruz, Ubaldo, Young, Brach, Webb, Paredes, Hundley

2015 - Dan missed with De Aza, Snider, Parmelee and Parra

2016 - Trumbo, Kim, and maybe Gallardo and Fowler

So three out of 4 years he added relative cheap players that help the team win. None of those players were from the farm system.

The fifth year is still in development.

Dan and Buck have won the most game in the AL with those addition. It a philosophy that has worked for them.

I am not saying that help from the farm system in not important but Dan finds other ways to add players. And it works.

I think what you are missing is that Dan had some excellent cornerstone players to build around. You need a certain number of those to anchor the complementary pieces. Davis, Machado, Wieters, Hardy and Jones have been constants on this team. Machado will be great for a long time, but the others are all 30+ this year and are going to start declining eventually (just a matter of how soon), and only Davis is under contract past 2018. If the farm system isn't producing any players of that caliber, it eventually catches up with you. And yes, I realize that our system didn't produce three of those five -- Andy MacPhail's clever, future-oriented trading did. Those trades were only pulled off because (1) Andy was very good at milking a lot of value out of his trades, and (2) Andy was willing to sacrifice a good bit of "now" to build for later. Dan has done the opposite, and there will come a time when it catches up to him. That doesn't mean he's wrong, so long as the "now" is good enough, but you are deluding yourself if you don't think we are likely to pay for it down the road.

[weams]

Two of them netted draft picks.

Pearce could be added here as well.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Scrat1]

We have $30M in salary coming off the books next season with (Wieters, Trumbo, and Matusz). There's no need to spend heavily in FA to replace them. We can absorb the Arb increases to Manny, Tillman, and Britton though I think they could shop Britton to help restock the minors.

Could be they are simply going to bank this money in order to help pay the Davis deal.

[Can_of_corn]

Could be they are simply going to bank this money in order to help pay the Davis deal.

I would not be surprised to find out that the push this year (if it happens) will not result in a significant increase in long term payroll.

[wildcard]

I think what you are missing is that Dan had some excellent cornerstone players to build around. You need a certain number of those to anchor the complementary pieces. Davis, Machado, Wieters, Hardy and Jones have been constants on this team. Machado will be great for a long time, but the others are all 30+ this year and are going to start declining eventually (just a matter of how soon), and only Davis is under contract past 2018. If the farm system isn't producing any players of that caliber, it eventually catches up with you. And yes, I realize that our system didn't produce three of those five -- Andy MacPhail's clever, future-oriented trading did. Those trades were only pulled off because (1) Andy was very good at milking a lot of value out of his trades, and (2) Andy was willing to sacrifice a good bit of "now" to build for later. Dan has done the opposite, and there will come a time when it catches up to him. That doesn't mean he's wrong, so long as the "now" is good enough, but you are deluding yourself if you don't think we are likely to pay for it down the road.

I think you are projecting further into the future then you can really see. Most of the O's players are before their prime or in their prime which should last until they are 33 when they start their decline. That is 3 to 5 years for the majority of the O's players. Dan will no doubt keep adding on a yearly basis.

I am not missing a thing that MacPhail did. Great trader. However their are many players in the minors that may help and that is only what we know about now.

Here is the 2016 age O's:

2016 O?s by age

23

Bundy

Garcia

Machado

Lee

24

Schoop

Mancini

Bridwell

Gunkel

25

Gausman

Walker

Rickard

26

McFarland

Wilson

Mike Wright

Givens

Hoes

Pena

27

D Alvarez

Paredes

Triggs

Miranda

Chris Jones

28

Britton

Tillman

Worley

Kim

29

Drake

Matusz

Joseph

Wieters

Flaherty

Urrutia

Roe

Despaigne

Navarro

30

Brach

Davis

Adam Jones

Trumbo

Gallardo?

Fowler?

31

Gonzalez

32

Jimenez

Reimold

Tolleson

33

O'Day

Hardy

There are a lot of guys under 33 here. Our perspective will change on many of the players both in the majors and minors on a yearly basis. Some will be more valued and some will fall away. But Dan does keep the pipeline flowing through many means not just the Rule 4 draft.

[sportsfan8703]

My frustration is being in a situation where you even have to entertain massive sell-offs. Sure would be nice to be planning for the short term and long term simultaneously when team building.

Spending on the top Latin American talent would help. It's really the one part of the franchise DD hasn't gotten PA to do yet. Everyone is focusing on the draft. We don't even really participate in the other amateur talent grab.

[sportsfan8703]

I think you are projecting further into the future then you can really see. Most of the O's players are before their prime or in their prime which should last until they are 33 when they start their decline. That is 3 to 5 years for the majority of the O's players. Dan will no doubt keep adding on a yearly basis.

I am not missing a thing that MacPhail did. Great trader. However their are many players in the minors that may help and that is only what we know about now.

Here is the 2016 age O's:

2016 O?s by age

23

Bundy

Garcia

Machado

Lee

24

Schoop

Mancini

Bridwell

Gunkel

25

Gausman

Walker

Rickard

26

McFarland

Wilson

Mike Wright

Givens

Hoes

Pena

27

D Alvarez

Paredes

Triggs

Miranda

Chris Jones

28

Britton

Tillman

Worley

Kim

29

Drake

Matusz

Joseph

Wieters

Flaherty

Urrutia

Roe

Despaigne

Navarro

30

Brach

Davis

Adam Jones

Trumbo

Gallardo?

Fowler?

31

Gonzalez

32

Jimenez

Reimold

Tolleson

33

O'Day

Hardy

There are a lot of guys under 33 here. Our perspective will chance on many of the players both in the majors and minors on a yearly basis. Some will be more valued and some will fall away. But Dan does keep the pipeline flowing through many means not just the Rule 4 draft.

Givens gets no prospect love but Byron Buxton is still number 1 on all the lists. We've seen this before with our rankings. Givens is one of the best young 2nd Basemen in baseball(probably the best) but he was never ranked and Kyle Seager is a golden boy. This will just be another year to bet the O's win total over and win money. $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$

[Can_of_corn]

Givens gets no prospect love but Byron Buxton is still number 1 on all the lists. We've seen this before with our rankings. Givens is one of the best young 2nd Basemen in baseball(probably the best) but he was never ranked and Kyle Seager is a golden boy. This will just be another year to bet the O's win total over and win money. $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$

[Stotle]

He's not wrong, tho...

[Can_of_corn]

He's not wrong, tho...

Givens is a second baseman?