Olney: Orioles

[Moondoggie]

Signing Gallardo and Fowler, if they can, is the only reasonable course of action. Those players fill two gaping holes in the lineup.Gallardo may be no David Price, but over the years he's been better than any of the Orioles' other starting pitchers. If you can get a guy who is better than the guy who's been starting on Opening Day for you, you do it. He should at least be able to adequately fill Chen's spot in the rotation. Fowler not only fills the need in right field, he fills the need for a top-of-the-order hitter with speed and on-base ability (career .363 OBP). You would think Fowler would score a lot of runs with Machado, Jones, Davis and Trumbo hitting behind him.

It really makes no sense to spend $161 million on Chris Davis and then half-ass the rotation and corner outfield. Either you're trying to compete or you're not. By the time a draft pick would likely be able to help (if ever), Machado, Jones and Buck Showalter will be out of contract (if they're not extended). Davis will be on the back end of his contract, when it's likely his production will be declining. The Orioles need to take advantage of about a 3-year window and it's highly unlikely that Vance Worley and Nolan Reiold are the players to put them over the top. Gallardo and Fowler are good, proven big league players still in prime career age (both are 29 as I write this).

Having the picks would be nice, of course, but picks are crapshoots. If you look back over the past 20 years, the only guys taken with the 14th pick who turned out better than Gallardo or Fowler were Jose Fernandez and Jason Heyward. The best of the rest turned out to be guys such as Aaron Hicks and Travis Snider. Should the Orioles really worry about not getting another Travis Snider? Take the guys who can help you win when you have a chance to win. Besides, there's a lot more to building a farm system than picking in the first round. Half of those guys never really work out anyway. The key is to find guys in the later rounds. Sure, the Mets took Matt Harvey in the first round. But they took Jacob deGrom in the 8th and Matz in the 2nd. The Orioles took Jake Arrieta in the 5th. It's about being smart and having good scouting. The O's will still have like four picks in the top 91. That's four chances to find some really good talent. Plus, the bonus pool money they "lose" along with the picks isn't actually lost. They could use the money on an international signing or two (and apparently there are some good prospects available this year in the Latin American market, where the O's should be making more of an effort anyway).

Hey, I've been critical of the Orioles all winter. In fact, it goes back to last season's trading deadline, when the Orioles had less than a 10 percent chance of making the playoffs based on the Baseball Prospectus trending odds (and an even less chance of doing anything even if they did squeak out a wildcard spot). I thought it would behoove the Orioles to deal Davis and Chen for some prospects who could either be ready to fill some holes this year or could be flipped for players who could. And I would have preferred they used the money they threw at Davis for a front line starting pitcher. But they are where they are. At this point, the best chance they have to be truly competitive in the AL East is to sign Gallardo and Fowler. And if they're not going to give themselves the best opportunity to compete now, they shouldn't have signed Davis.

[Can_of_corn]

Kim is "cost controlled until then"? Is that true? I thought he was on a two year deal, similar to Chen on a 4 year deal? Do we have Kim's rights for six years?

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Two years.

[hoosiers]

At bottom, I think it's too soon to start a retooling program. They've got three years with Machado and Jones and they are trying to compete while that window is open. I'm not totally thrilled with the way they spent the funds that apparently were available, but I think the decision to try to build up the current team made sense. It may work or it may not. If it's not working in July, I'd make a sharp course correction and trade some veterans for prospects. But I'm hoping it won't come to that.

I guess the real question is: will this team compete for a playoff spot in a serious manner? It is all well and good to say we have Machado and jones, but the Os don't exist in a vacuum and our divisional brethren are much better than they were in 2014 and Machado and Jones only got us to 81-81 last season.

Because most analysts don't believe the Os are a competitive team, so I would ask then - what is the best path to our next competitive team? And I think we get there faster by keeping our picks, blowing out international spend this year, and dealing a good part of our "core" except Manny, Schoop and Gausman.

Let's not forget, while our GM might be able to get some good prospects for Wieters and others at the trade deadline if we don't compete, our two year commitment could well mean that again next season we are going to trade and forfeit more picks. In for a penny, in for a dollar and this appears to be a two year damn the torpedoes, all or nothing run ... that will certainly leave us with nothing in the tank when it is over except for a starting position the next two seasons that is outside the top 10 teams in baseball.

[weams]

Who thought they would have a 150M payroll this year? If they sign Fowler and Gallardo, it's got to be close. Weams thought they would be around 120M.

I did. Indeed.

[hoosiers]

My frustration is being in a situation where you even have to entertain massive sell-offs. Sure would be nice to be planning for the short term and long term simultaneously when team building.

Yes it would.

It would be nice to understand the impetus of this - whether Buck keeps asking for assets that he thinks he can win with and that he is simply not up for coaching a .500 team or hanging in through a multi-year turnaround, DD is gambling with the poor hand he has left himself, or if PA has ordered a massive "do the best you can to win it all" order.

Whoever is behind this is doing a big disservice to our future and appears to have prepared poorly (over several years) to arrive at this point in time with the current personnel and farm system to decide to put all the chips on the table.

[Orioles0615]

If the FO were to pivot to a re-stocking of the farm system, I do not believe it would take another four or five years. There is an opportunity with this year's draft picks, the international opportunity available this year and the dealing of veterans like Wieters, Jones, Britton and others that should provide a strong core to compete in three years centered around Machado, Schoop and Gausman.

Instead, our FO appears ready to double-down on the current team - forfeiting draft picks and ramping up payroll with above average but nowhere near all-star caliber players. It is a dangerous bet based on assessments of the team from most analytics and the current state of our farm system. It seems like the chances of success are fairly dubious and I hope DD hangs around into 2018 and 2019 for the heavy losing we appear in line to experience.

If they want to go the international route then they need to stop going after the Henry Urrutia's of the world and go after younger prospects like the Yoan Moncadas

[weams]

Kim is "cost controlled until then"? Is that true? I thought he was on a two year deal, similar to Chen on a 4 year deal? Do we have Kim's rights for six years?

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Two years only.

[weams]

If they want to go the international route then they need to stop going after the Henry Urrutia's of the world and go after younger prospects like the Yoan Moncadas

Moncada is 32 million dollars.

With Taxes and fees he was 67 million all told. You can buy 85 Henrys for that. One of them might hit.

[MrOrange82]

Moncada is 32 million dollars.

With Taxes and fees he was 67 million all told. You can buy 85 Henrys for that. One of them might hit.

Do that many exist? Would the O's even sign a small fraction if they do?

[BohKnowsBmore]

If the plan is to give up now and "emerge in four to five years," then they shouldn't have signed Davis, Kim, and O'Day and they should have traded Jones, Machado, Britton, Tillman, Schoop, Jimenez, Schoop, Gausman, and Gonzalez.

1B Walker

2B Flaherty

SS Hardy

3B Tolleson

RF Reimold

CF Lough

LF Alvarez

DH Paredes

Wright

Wilson

Odie

Worley

Jones

Givens

Brach

Bundy

Drake

Matusz

McFarland

Roe

That should have been the 2016 team. Welcome to Birdland.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Sorry...?

[weams]

Do that many exist? Would the O's even sign a small fraction if they do?

No and no. Nor a Moncada.

[BohKnowsBmore]

Norris was a huge miss. Some of us were on record about it. Others thought the trade Norris club was crazy. It should have happened. He was clearly living on borrowed time.

Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

Some are on record about pretty much every player on the team being terrible or ready to turn into a pumpkin at any moment. Bound to be right eventually.

[BohKnowsBmore]

Do you think I'm that way? Because I was on the record to trade Norris. Loudly. Some of the people I consider pretty level headed were with me. I don't think it was a panicky thought that Norris was a trade high player whose value was going to fall.

Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

No. I honestly don't remember. But I believe you. I was adamant about keeping him. I was wrong.

Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

[gtown]

Count me among those who would rather not give up the picks. It's not just 14 and 29, it's 14, 29, 54, 69, 76 and 91, and the $$ pool that comes with those picks. With the farm system so weak, this is a great opportunity to address it that might not come along for some time.

I look at the 2016 projections for Gallardo and I just don't see enough of an upgrade to warrant giving up #14. Go to ST, see how things shake out and if #5 starter still looks like a problem, then make a trade for one.

[Frobby]

I guess the real question is: will this team compete for a playoff spot in a serious manner? It is all well and good to say we have Machado and jones, but the Os don't exist in a vacuum and our divisional brethren are much better than they were in 2014 and Machado and Jones only got us to 81-81 last season.

Because most analysts don't believe the Os are a competitive team, so I would ask then - what is the best path to our next competitive team? And I think we get there faster by keeping our picks, blowing out international spend this year, and dealing a good part of our "core" except Manny, Schoop and Gausman.

Let's not forget, while our GM might be able to get some good prospects for Wieters and others at the trade deadline if we don't compete, our two year commitment could well mean that again next season we are going to trade and forfeit more picks. In for a penny, in for a dollar and this appears to be a two year damn the torpedoes, all or nothing run ... that will certainly leave us with nothing in the tank when it is over except for a starting position the next two seasons that is outside the top 10 teams in baseball.

You seem more pessimistic than most around here about our chances of contending this year. I don't think it's obvious that any of the other AL East teams are better than us with Gallardo and Fowler added (which, of course, hasn't happened yet). I'm expecting a fun and highly competitive season. If it isn't, I'd rather throw in the towel in July than now.