PECOTA projections

[Can_of_corn]

I just love the underdog mentality (let's be real, unless we had Bryce Harper and Max Scherzer, we're never gonna be the sexy pick to win it all). I've had it all my life. I'm not anti analytical. They have their place and are a huge value, but when people just throw random stats at you and say "this is why your team will forever suck", that gets annoying really quick. People over preform and under preform, and that why you play 162 games. Just angers me that no one thinks that maybe we'll be middle of the pack and not hanging around teams that do stink like San Deigo. This time of year enrages me as a baseball fan, and it's great when September comes around and everyone is wrong.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

You need to look at some things if any of this stuff makes you angry.

[MDtransplant757]

You need to look at some things if any of this stuff makes you angry.

Anger was the wrong word. Annoyance is the more appropriate ond

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[abbott]

If the Orioles become the Padres next year it means not only has the pitching completely imploded but Manny Machado's arm has fallen off, Adam Jones ran through the wall on day one severing his spine and Davis and Wieters both strained intercostals from hugging each other after back to back homers on day three.

This ranking is so absurd I can't even. I just can't even.

Like, I get picking the Orioles near the middle of the pack but yeah that?

It's typical of the National media and the media in the 29 other major league markets to discredit the Orioles. It's like there's a conspiracy to recognize the accomplishments we have made and over coming the great obstacles to having the best record in baseball over the last 4 years. All we do is win. And we get nothing in return but hate and disrespect

Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

[DrungoHazewood]

I was saying that people who just use stats to justify why they say your team will stink. And those same "stats" have the Red Sox winning it all

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

What did your own analysis reveal?

[MDtransplant757]

You are pretty mature for a very young guy.

And no, I'm not being a wise guy. I mean that.

Thank you

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[MDtransplant757]

What did your own analysis reveal?

If everyone gets hurt- 74.

If everyone blows up- 0

If Tilly and Gozo rebound - 85

If everything good happens- 99

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[El Gordo]

Mdtranspalnt is one of the biggest O's homers on this board and thats what I like about him! That said most people feel Boston will be better than Baltimore this year. Who cares though that is why they play the games. I will say though just as crazy as thinking they are 23rd in the league is thinking they win the World Series. I'd say the result is somewhere in the middle.

I'm not so sure about that. After Price how good is their rotation? How much faith do you have in HanRam, Panda, and aging big Poopy. Pedroia has had injury issues the paSt few years and isn't getting any younger.

[ChicagoTerp]

Last year Schoenfeld had us winning the AL East, KC finishing 4th in the central, WAS winning 95 games, Seattle making the WS, etc etc.

Gotta play the games. Predictions are meaningless in baseball. Unless you're talking about one of the handful of teams (ATL this year maybe? HOU in years past) who are not actively trying to win this year, trying to predict outcomes is a pretty fruitless task.

Honestly I'd rather us be slated for 74 wins than 94 wins. You know Showalter will use it.

[Tx Oriole]

http://espn.go.com/blog/sweetspot/post/_/id/68185/ranking-the-teams-24-through-19-3

You can remove the link if I can't post it. This guy is smoking bananas.

The offense and bullpen alone - abysmal OBP and all - will get us close to .500. I think an above average season from our rotation gets us into the playoffs.

ESPN is a Yankee rag. I don't read ESPN garbage. Sorry

[Stotle]

I'm not so sure about that. After Price how good is their rotation? How much faith do you have in HanRam, Panda, and aging big Poopy. Pedroia has had injury issues the paSt few years and isn't getting any younger.

Last Year:

Bogaerts (4.3 fWAR at age 22, 650 PA)

Betts (4.8 fWAR at age 22, 650 PA)

Swihart (1.5 fWAR at age 23, 300 PA)

JBJ (2.4 fWAR at age 25, 250 PA)

Rodriguez (1.7 fWAR at age 22, over 21 starts)

Castillo (age 27) now healthy and certainly comes with big upside. Obviously he needs to prove he can stay on the field.

[tntoriole]

Just as an historical aside...wins over the last four years in the American League: 1. Orioles -355 2- MFYs-351 3- ANA- 350 4- OAK-346 5-DET-345 6- KCR-342

7- tie TB and Tex -339, 9- CLE-326, 10-TOR-323, 11- BOS- 315, 12- SEA- 309, 13- CHI- 297, 14- MIN- 285, 15- HOU- 262.

So, the difference over the last four years between the Orioles and the worst AL team is 93 games...or finishing ahead of them by an average of over 23 games a year. We have been 40 games better (thus 10 games per year average) than Boston. But, of course, that has all been smoke and mirrors, and we are certain now to be the worst team in the AL this year (oops, excuse me, second worst next to Oakland.) Yeah, right. Let's play some ball and hit some taters!!!

[DrungoHazewood]

Meh. I don't see a whole lot to like about the Sox this year, fWAR be damned.

You're not a bit concerned about their bunch of young players who're already performing very well, augmented by Price, and Pedroia and Ortiz and Koji and... yea... they'll probably be right there.

[Machado13]

Just as an historical aside...wins over the last four years in the American League: 1. Orioles -355 2- MFYs-351 3- ANA- 350 4- OAK-346 5-DET-345 6- KCR-342

7- tie TB and Tex -339, 9- CLE-326, 10-TOR-323, 11- BOS- 315, 12- SEA- 309, 13- CHI- 297, 14- MIN- 285, 15- HOU- 262.

So, the difference over the last four years between the Orioles and the worst AL team is 93 games...or finishing ahead of them by an average of over 23 games a year. We have been 40 games better (thus 10 games per year average) than Boston. But, of course, that has all been smoke and mirrors, and we are certain now to be the worst team in the AL this year (oops, excuse me, second worst next to Oakland.) Yeah, right. Let's play some ball and hit some taters!!!

Yea definitely bizarre.

I can't put my finger on this year's version. I expect rebound years from Tillman, gonzo and Hardy. We will find out, if they get pitching it could be pretty close to the 2014 team. Obviously that's assuming gallardo eats Chen innings.

Not worried about offense, the pitching rebounding is question

[MDtransplant757]

Yea definitely bizarre.

I can't put my finger on this year's version. I expect rebound years from Tillman, gonzo and Hardy. We will find out, if they get pitching it could be pretty close to the 2014 team. Obviously that's assuming gallardo eats Chen innings.

Not worried about offense, the pitching rebounding is question

If our pitching comes back, we'll be ok.

[Frobby]

Just as an historical aside...wins over the last four years in the American League: 1. Orioles -355 2- MFYs-351 3- ANA- 350 4- OAK-346 5-DET-345 6- KCR-342

7- tie TB and Tex -339, 9- CLE-326, 10-TOR-323, 11- BOS- 315, 12- SEA- 309, 13- CHI- 297, 14- MIN- 285, 15- HOU- 262.

So, the difference over the last four years between the Orioles and the worst AL team is 93 games...or finishing ahead of them by an average of over 23 games a year. We have been 40 games better (thus 10 games per year average) than Boston. But, of course, that has all been smoke and mirrors, and we are certain now to be the worst team in the AL this year (oops, excuse me, second worst next to Oakland.) Yeah, right. Let's play some ball and hit some taters!!!

I don't put that much stock in the four-year total. Last year we dropped by 15 games from the year before. Some people see that as a trend that will continue. I don't, but I do not think it is patently unreasonable.