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Good Ubaldo!

Beef Supreme

By Beef Supreme
in Orioles Talk

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Frobby Hangout Grand Counsel

Frobby

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47 minutes ago, weams said:

Pitching wins is such a controversial subject, But I Do think that a starter who can carry a 4 ERA in the AL EAST through 6 innings average is worth 6 Wins or so to the team over the average starter. 

What do you consider "average?" There were 67 starters in the AL last year with 100+ innings pitched, almost exactly 5 per team.   The 35th best ERA in that group (which is basically mid-tier third starter) was 4.22.   11 of the 35 were in the AL East.    Looking at the starter ERA in the AL East, average was about 4.26, with the Jays much better than that at 3.64 and the O's significantly worse at 4.72.     

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Frobby Hangout Grand Counsel

Frobby

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Here's another way to look at this.   AL teams had a .522 winning percentage when allowing 4 runs, .368 when allowing 5.    That's a huge difference.   Ubaldo made 25 starts last year and in nine of them he allowed 5 runs or more.    That's a lot of games where he gave us a very poor chance to win, and not surprisingly, the team went 2-7 in those games.    In 2015, "good Ubaldo" allowed 5 runs or more only four times in 32 starts.    So, that's five extra times in 2016 where he put us in a position where we were very likely to lose (in 7 fewer total starts).    So from that standpoint, you can see the argument that the difference between good and bad Ubaldo could be five games or more.   Obviously I'm oversimplifying this.    

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Can_of_corn Hangout Grand Counsel

Can_of_corn

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16 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Here's another way to look at this.   AL teams had a .522 winning percentage when allowing 4 runs, .368 when allowing 5.    That's a huge difference.   Ubaldo made 25 starts last year and in nine of them he allowed 5 runs or more.    That's a lot of games where he gave us a very poor chance to win, and not surprisingly, the team went 2-7 in those games.    In 2015, "good Ubaldo" allowed 5 runs or more only four times in 32 starts.    So, that's five extra times in 2016 where he put us in a position where we were very likely to lose (in 7 fewer total starts).    So from that standpoint, you can see the argument that the difference between good and bad Ubaldo could be five games or more.   Obviously I'm oversimplifying this.    

But five games at .368 instead of .522 isn't close to give games more lost.  It's a difference certainly but not a huge one.

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Frobby Hangout Grand Counsel

Frobby

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3 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

But five games at .368 instead of .522 isn't close to give games more lost.  It's a difference certainly but not a huge one.

I know.   But theoretically, a starting pitcher that gave up 5 runs every time would win about 5 fewer times in 32 starts than one who gave up 4 every time, if they pitched all 9 innings.     (.522 - .368 = .154; .154 x 32 = 4.93.)    Obviously, they don't pitch all 9 innings, nor does a 5.00 ERA pitcher usually allow 5 runs when he pitches, since ERA is on a per 9 IP basis.    But I think it probably suggests that the upper bound of the difference between a 4.00 ERA pitcher and a 5.00 ERA pitcher would be about 5 wins over 32 starts, given average run support, bullpen support, etc.   So between my other back of the napkin calculation and this one, I'm thinking the difference between good and bad Ubaldo is 3-5 team wins.

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ArtVanDelay Hangout Grand Counsel

ArtVanDelay

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On 2/26/2017 at 11:46 AM, weams said:

Pitching wins is such a controversial subject, But I Do think that a starter who can carry a 4 ERA in the AL EAST through 6 innings average is worth 6 Wins or so to the team over the average starter. 

How?  Isn't a guy who pitches 6 innings to a 4 ERA considered average anyway?  Or below average depending on other variables. 

An average starter is worth 2 wins, so you're saying a guy who throws 6 innings per start to a 4 ERA is worth 8 wins?  That's Kershaw when he's throwing 230 innings to a sub 2 FIP. 

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Frobby Hangout Grand Counsel

Frobby

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1 hour ago, ArtVanDelay said:

How?  Isn't a guy who pitches 6 innings to a 4 ERA considered average anyway?  Or below average depending on other variables. 

An average starter is worth 2 wins, so you're saying a guy who throws 6 innings per start to a 4 ERA is worth 8 wins?  That's Kershaw when he's throwing 230 innings to a sub 2 FIP. 

While I don't agree with weams' estimate, I'm also not a believer that WAR = wins.    WAR is a reasonable yardstick to measure the relative worth of players, but I think in real world terms the impact of a player on wins and losses can be greater than his WAR indicates.    For example, how many fewer games would we have won last year with a replacement-level pitcher as our closer?   A lot more than Zach's WAR.

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Can_of_corn Hangout Grand Counsel

Can_of_corn

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1 minute ago, Frobby said:

While I don't agree with weams' estimate, I'm also not a believer that WAR = wins.    WAR is a reasonable yardstick to measure the relative worth of players, but I think in real world terms the impact of a player on wins and losses can be greater than his WAR indicates.    For example, how many fewer games would we have won last year with a replacement-level pitcher as our closer?   A lot more than Zach's WAR.

But you wouldn't have had a replacement level guy as the closer.  You would have had O'Day, or Brach, or Givens.  The replacement level guy would be soaking up lower leverage innings.

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OFFNY Hangout Grand Counsel

OFFNY

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o

 

I'm going to simply borrow this thread for Jimenez' 2017 preseason games.

I don't want to start (or ask Il BuonO to start) a Ubaldo Jimenez Today thread until the games actually count.

Hence, if Jimenez gets knock out of the box in 2/3 of an inning in a preseason game, please don't take my posting in this thread as a sign that I necessarily thought that he had a good outing.

 

 

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