Some thoughts at the 1/6 mark

[Frobby]

We've played 27 games, exactly 1/6th of the season. On pace for 96-66, five games over .500, or going slightly backwards after starting 7-0, depending on how you want to look at it. So what's real and what's not?

To me the most important thing is the recent performance of Tillman and Gausman. If that's indicative of the two of them having strong seasons, then I feel we'll be in the race all year. Ubaldo is his usual inconsistent self, Wright and Wilson are serviceable if uninspiring. Maybe Gallardo will look better when he returns than he did this spring and early in the year. I'm not counting on that, just hoping.

Offensively, certain guys have started hot and others have started cold. It's all to be expected in a 27-game sample, though as usual some people are trying to read a lot into it. Overall, we have an above average lineup but it will have its ups and downs.

Defensively, the infield has looked great. I'm expecting a bit of a downturn with Hardy out, and I'm generally worried about the impact his absence will have. In the outfield, Trumbo's been as bad as expected, Rickard has been worse than expected and we will probably start seeing more of Kim.

The bullpen has been very good, but has been asked to do an awful lot. I think the starters hold the key to how the bullpen will do. If the starters can get us to the 7th inning twice a week or so, the pen will probably hold up. If the pen is throwing in the 5th/6th inning almost every day, eventually cracks will show. We have six blown saves already, most in the middle innings and luckily we came back and won most of them.

Back to my first point, nothing has really changed from what we knew before the season started: starting pitching will decide whether this team contends or not. I see some encouraging signs on that front, but only time will tell how the starters hold up. We're certainly in a good position at the 1/6th pole, and I'm looking forward to seeing our guys battle it out. Color me a shade more optimistic than I was before the season began.

[bluedog]

Good analysis. Here are my thoughts at the 1/6 mark;

Pros:

Gausman seems to have taken a step forward and has the ability to be a true ace.

Tillman looks like he's back to being a TOR starter

Trumbo is a far better hitter than I expected

Kim looks like a quality, veteran ballplayer who will force his way into the every day lineup soon

Wilson & Wright look like they will provide reasonable value at the back of the rotation

Davis isn't suffering from post contract decline

The bullpen is exceptional

The infield defense is exceptional

The starting pitching has been better than expected

Cons:

Rickard doesn't look like he's going to stick long term as a starter (at least this year)

Alvarez has been a big disappointment, but may be coming around

Schoop doesn't seem to have progressed as a hitter

Jones seems to be significantly hampered by nagging injuries and is currently hurting the team at the plate

Gallardo looks like a complete bust

The offense has been slightly disappointing

I'm looking forward to starting the next 1/6th of the season with a doubleheader sweep of the A's today!

[Bahama O's Fan]

Jones is the major issue offensively, in my mind. If he can get back to career normals, we'll be fine.

[Fliqan]

I think we should really be encouraged by the pitching overall and since this is a power team you have to imagine their bats will heat up once we get out of winter and into summer

[thezeroes]

After 27 games the Orioles have played three (3) of their eighteen (18), nine (9) game series. To maintain a 56% win ratio to get to a Ninety (90) Win season they have done well. By winning five (5) of nine (9) in these eighteen (18), nine (9) game series they would have a ninety (90) win and seventy two (72) loss campaign at the end of the year. The sixteen (16) and eleven (11) mark is one (1) game better than a win series share of 5 of 9 that would have them at fifteen (15) and twelve (12). They are one game over that mark.

I see a league wide correction for Rickard, as the book on him is now out there for all teams to adjust to. It will remain to be seen if he can make the necessary adjustments to improve. If not then he becomes this year’s David Lough.

Kim has said and done all the correct things except accepting a MiLB assignment. He seems to play hard when in the game and does not pout when on the bench. He has adjusted to his role and has contributed.

Alvarez has shown the ability to get on base, currently .107 points higher than his batting average. At that pace if he can raise his BA to .250 he would have an OBP of near .360.

Schoop seems to have regressed a bit. He may need to see some bench time if Paul Janish gets added to the Twenty-Five.

Jones needs to play his way healthy. He does have a track record of being a bit streaky.

Trumbo is as advertised, a quality MLB hitter with a bit of defensive challenge. He is this year’s Nelson Cruz.

The pitching will have its ups and downs. Gausman looks like he is ready to grab a top of the rotation spot. Tillman seems to have found his form from 2014. Wilson and Wright are performing better than expected with some quality innings. Jimenez is who he is. He will be lights out for 10 starts, suck for ten starts and a box of chocolates for ten starts. Gallardo was a concern with the revamped contract from the get go. He may be able to get a tick or two more on his fastball which will make him a serviceable starter, if not then just another Danys Baez. The back end of the bullpen may be the strongest part of the team and my hope is both Bundy and Givens can make it a longer bullpen all year.

[OFFNY]

o

I think that the Orioles have a good chance to be at least 32-22 or better by the 1/3 mark.

Based on the fact that I said so.

[Rene88]

Corn was right: the Gallardo signing was a disaster, plus we lost our pick and no Fowler

Matusz is still a one-dimensional lefty that can only be used in low pressure situations, no clue why he was resigned last year or this year

Wright still looks like a bullpen arm

Jones is playing hurt

Not signing Latos looks real bad. Seeing Arietta, Rich Hill and Jason Hamel dominate is also quite depressing.

We have razor thin SP depth in the minors.

Pedro Alvarez off to a very slow start.

The good?

Bundy isn't hurt

Gausman has looked good

Trumbo

Manny on fire as usual

Our bullpen

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[VeveJones007]

Jones is the major issue offensively' date=' in my mind. If he can get back to career normals, we'll be fine.[/quote']

I really think we're in for a significant down season from Jones this year. You can't play through that type of injury. His swing just doesn't look right and he isn't generating as much exit velocity.

It won't be as bad as Hardy in 2015, but he'll struggle based on his standards.

[VeveJones007]

o

I think that the Orioles have a good chance to be at least 32-22 or better by the 1/3 mark.

Based on the fact that I said so.

What?! OFFNY is looking past the next game?!

[ORIOLE33]

My thoughts? How in the world is this team in 1st? Other than Manny and Trumbo, the offense has been a major disappointment.

[ORIOLE33]

For everyone saying Jones is playing hurt, I have a question. Was he hurt the 2nd half of last year too? AJ has not looked good at the plate in a long time.

[OFFNY]

I think that the Orioles have a good chance to be at least 32-22 or better by the 1/3 mark.

Based on the fact that I said so.

What?! OFFNY is looking past the next game?!

Nah.

It's similar to my preseason prediction.

I said that we would go 89-73, win the American League Pennant, and lose the World Series in 7 games to either the Mets or the Cardinals.

But the fact is that even when I said that, I was only hoping to be 1-0 after the first game of the season.

Similarly, I will be thrilled to the gills if we win tonight and improve our record to 17-12 overall, regardless of my prediction for the next 1/6 of the season.

[srock]

My thoughts? How in the world is this team in 1st? Other than Manny and Trumbo, the offense has been a major disappointment.

The record is encouraging given the issues. Winning 2 of the last 4 is a freaking miracle given the lack of runs.

7-0 start was impressive especially with the lackluster starting pitcher.

My point? This team can win multiple ways. If the pitching and hitting ever lines for an extended period, domination!

[ChuckS]

I look at how the rest of the division is doing and it makes me even more optimistic.

The Yankees and Rays can't score runs. The Red Sox can't stop anyone (Price has been a disaster). The Blue Jays aren't as good as last year.

None of these teams (even the Yankees) can be counted out, but I like how we matchup with these other teams.

[Frobby]

My thoughts? How in the world is this team in 1st? Other than Manny and Trumbo, the offense has been a major disappointment.

6th in runs/game, 2nd in BA, OBP, SLG and OPS, 1st in OPS with RISP. What exactly were you hoping for?

If you look at any 25-30 game segment, you're going to find guys who are hot and guys who are cold. Overall, the offense is about as good as should have been expected.