Future or Go For It This Year?

[scOtt]

[video=youtube;BcmbLmSKdw4]

[flyhighbirds]

I think the O's should go in the other direction. They should consider trading, Trumbo, Wieters, Tillman, Britten, etc... and mortgage the present for the future. It will never happen as long as Buck and Dan are with Orioles, but it could potentially set the Orioles up for long term success. It could also turn into a Sid Thrift situation as well.

People will laugh at this, but what you are saying is actualy pretty smart.

[DrungoHazewood]

People will laugh at this, but what you are saying is actualy pretty smart.

It's smart if you place almost no value on winning in a year where you're in first place in mid-June. The last team that was a hard seller this far into the year in first may have been in the 1800s when it was unclear if various teams/leagues were financially viable and 1st place was no guarantee you'd make payroll.

It's not Dan and Buck, it's the implicit contract a MLB team has with its fanbase to not torpedo a successful season.

[Frobby]

It almost feels like the long-term health of the organization would be better if we just tanked this year and traded all moveable assets for prospects to rebuild the farm system. I feel like our core is good enough to compete for championships but probably not good enough to ever actually win them. It would be tempting to just deal Trumbo, Wieters, Britton, and Tillman for prospects, then extend Machado.

I think the O's should go in the other direction. They should consider trading, Trumbo, Wieters, Tillman, Britten, etc... and mortgage the present for the future. It will never happen as long as Buck and Dan are with Orioles, but it could potentially set the Orioles up for long term success. It could also turn into a Sid Thrift situation as well.

People will laugh at this, but what you are saying is actualy pretty smart.

This is crazy talk. If we were not playing well this season, I would understand and probably support this kind of a strategy. But we are playing well, and you don't give up a solid shot at present success in the hopes of being successful in the future.

Unless this team takes a serious nosedive in the next six weeks, there are two realistic choices: (1) stand pat and hope we have enough to make the playoffs and then go on a run, or (2) make some trades to try to improve our chances. Being sellers is not a realistic option so long as we are in a position similar to the one we're in right now.

As to option (2), I fear that the price of a meaningful pitching upgrade is going to be astronomical. The list of pitchers with expiring contracts is pitiful, and the cost of acquiring a solid pitcher who has at least one more year of service time left after this one will be extremely high. So I'm inclined to think standing pat is likely our best option, though I don't have any reason to think Dan Duquette will do that, based on past history.

[DrungoHazewood]

I feel like our core is good enough to compete for championships but probably not good enough to ever actually win them.

I think that a casual look at the differences between playoff teams and championship teams would quickly show the difference between the two is completely trivial. Almost all statements of what it takes to get through the playoffs are post-facto rationalization and narrative.

[atomic]

I think the O's should go in the other direction. They should consider trading, Trumbo, Wieters, Tillman, Britten, etc... and mortgage the present for the future. It will never happen as long as Buck and Dan are with Orioles, but it could potentially set the Orioles up for long term success. It could also turn into a Sid Thrift situation as well.

More likely set us up for 15 straight losing seasons.

No team is going to trade away all their best players when they are in first place. The only guy I would consider trading is Machado. As he would actually bring you back more than he is worth.

The team is set-up to compete the next 3 years. We should try to optimize that and plan for now. Anyway I don't have to have anyone listen to my opinion as long as the Orioles aren't 20 games under .500 that will be the plan. Like it should be.

[atomic]

This is crazy talk. If we were not playing well this season, I would understand and probably support this kind of a strategy. But we are playing well, and you don't give up a solid shot at present success in the hopes of being successful in the future.

Unless this team takes a serious nosedive in the next six weeks, there are two realistic choices: (1) stand pat and hope we have enough to make the playoffs and then go on a run, or (2) make some trades to try to improve our chances. Being sellers is not a realistic option so long as we are in a position similar to the one we're in right now.

As to option (2), I fear that the price of a meaningful pitching upgrade is going to be astronomical. The list of pitchers with expiring contracts is pitiful, and the cost of acquiring a solid pitcher who has at least one more year of service time left after this one will be extremely high. So I'm inclined to think standing pat is likely our best option, though I don't have any reason to think Dan Duquette will do that, based on past history.

I don't know we didn't give up all that much to get Norris and we got Saunders for nothing. Pitching upgrade won't be hard to do with the way our starters are pitching a below average starter would be an upgrade.

[DrungoHazewood]

The only guy I would consider trading is Machado. As he would actually bring you back more than he is worth.

That's far from certain. Trading of a superstar often results in getting back a number of young players whom you hope will one day be about as good as the superstar was by himself. The Bedard trade is nearly legendary here and in a good year Tillman+Jones are roughly as good as Manny. It's very optimistic to think you'd do better.

[crawjo]

I think that a casual look at the differences between playoff teams and championship teams would quickly show the difference between the two is completely trivial. Almost all statements of what it takes to get through the playoffs are post-facto rationalization and narrative.

I disagree. You can be in contention with an 85 win team. And yes, every now and then an 85 win team will win a World Series. But in practice, your odds are a lot better if you are a 95-100 win team.

[ExileAngelos]

Not sure about everyone else but i sure am enjoying this season.

[Redskins Rick]

I disagree. You can be in contention with an 85 win team. And yes, every now and then an 85 win team will win a World Series. But in practice, your odds are a lot better if you are a 95-100 win team.

Now days, it's whatever team has the hot hand during the playoffs, the best team during the season, doesn't always win the WS trophy.

[Phantom]

Now days, it's whatever team has the hot hand during the playoffs, the best team during the season, doesn't always win the WS trophy.

This has always been the case. It just feels more pronounced the more teams you let in.

[DrungoHazewood]

I disagree. You can be in contention with an 85 win team. And yes, every now and then an 85 win team will win a World Series. But in practice, your odds are a lot better if you are a 95-100 win team.

Are they? And what is "a lot"? My guess is that a 87-win playoff team is about a 8% of winning the World Series and a 100-win team is maybe 20%.

[24fps]

Not sure about everyone else but i sure am enjoying this season.

Two days out of every five, I am too.

[osfan83]

I think the O's should go in the other direction. They should consider trading, Trumbo, Wieters, Tillman, Britten, etc... and mortgage the present for the future. It will never happen as long as Buck and Dan are with Orioles, but it could potentially set the Orioles up for long term success. It could also turn into a Sid Thrift situation as well.

Yes, give up a sure winner today for the chance at a winner tomorrow. :rolleyestf: