It's going to be a dogfight with Toronto and Boston

[LC_O's_87]

1. The Astros bullpen is legit as the O's found out in May. They've turned it around, and the simple fact is unbalanced scheduling will make it tougher for both WC's to come out of the East. Houston will be playing Oakland and the Angels and one or both of those teams figure to be sellers at the deadline, further weaknening their MLB talent level. The Rays are 3-22 in their last 25 games, but it seems like the Yankees will just keep middling along. I would be surprised if they sell any of their bullpen arms.

2. Although the Blue Jays are trending up, I just don't believe they will sustain the starting pitching. Aaron Sanchez is going to get pulled from the rotation in probably 1 month, or they will skip him a few times to get him through August, but he's been their best pitcher and he won't be starting in the stretch run. Estrada is on the DL with a bad back, so we'll see how long that lasts. Stroman's been inconsistent while Happ has exceeded expectations and Dickey's been average but solid. The other factor for the Blue Jays is they have a very pedestrian bullpen. It won't take much of a regression from their starting pitching for Gibbons to start overworking their 2-3 reliable arms. That said, the O's could be in the same boat, and sooner than the Jays.

I think the Sox peaked earlier this season. I see them fading. Too many guys putting up career numbers in the first half and even then they couldn't run out to a big advantage over the O's.

The Jays will be tough to handle though....especially if the O's can't get someone to fill out the 4th spot of the rotation, let alone the 5th.

[LookitsPuck]

The Blue Jays don't have a single pitcher pitcher with an ERA above 5.00. They have 4 with an ERA below 4 (regardless of injury).

The O's as a counterpoint? Only 1 under 4. And only 2 under 5. They have 2 with ERAs of nearly 6 and 1 with nearly 7.

This is very concerning.

[Ohfan67]

The Blue Jays don't have a single pitcher pitcher with an ERA above 5.00. They have 4 with an ERA below 4 (regardless of injury).

The O's as a counterpoint? Only 1 under 4. And only 2 under 5. They have 2 with ERAs of nearly 6 and 1 with nearly 7.

This is very concerning.

So you're saying the Orioles' rotation can only get better, right!

[ChuckS]

What's the health outlook for Bautista, Encarnacion, and Tulo? I feel like those guys are always getting hurt or nursing nagging injuries.

[Can_of_corn]

What's the health outlook for Bautista, Encarnacion, and Tulo? I feel like those guys are always getting hurt or nursing nagging injuries.

As opposed to Hardy and Jones?

[LookitsPuck]

So you're saying the Orioles' rotation can only get better, right!

If Ubaldo stays out of it? Most likely.

[xian4]

Think they will allow Bundy to start even if he is piggy backed by Worley or someone.

[LC_O's_87]

Think they will allow Bundy to start even if he is piggy backed by Worley or someone.

If I was betting, I would say Bundy stays in his current role. I'd say next time through we see Wilson again and after that, if necessary, they give the ball to Worley to start.

[Can_of_corn]

If I was betting' date=' I would say Bundy stays in his current role. I'd say we either see next time through we see Wilson again and after that they give the ball to Worley.[/quote']

Or make a trade.

[LC_O's_87]

Or make a trade.

Duquette had his poker face on during the broadcasts this weekend. The way he was telling it, only 3 starters in the majors are on the market right now. He was really down-playing the likelihood of a trade. even talking up their 2016 #1 pick Sedlock as a possible reinforcement.

Conventional wisdom and DD's history say trade is the safe bet though.

[Orioles0615]

It will be tough too since the Red Sox will most likely try to get the best SP available, and I am sure Toronto will pull something out of their you know what to get a SP or RP as well. Where I don't think anyone knows what the O's will do, since they will try to get a SP but who knows who it could be. It could come down to who gets who at the deadline and how that player performs.

[ExileAngelos]

I just hope we are no more than 5 games out of first place by the end of August worst case scenario and then make push from there.

[BohKnowsBmore]

They could be but on Friday night I had a fair share of posters say the Jays will be in first by the All Star break and one said guaranteed. Yet they not only not in first are father back then before. The only thing with Toronto is yes they are two back but they are 4 back in the loss column you can make up wins but you can not make up losses.

I was thinking about this as well!

[Frobby]

Duquette had his poker face on during the broadcasts this weekend. The way he was telling it' date=' only 3 starters in the majors are on the market right now. He was really down-playing the likelihood of a trade. even talking up their 2016 #1 pick Sedlock as a possible reinforcement.

Conventional wisdom and DD's history say trade is the safe bet though.[/quote']

I don't think he really talked up Sedlock. He was asked a question about whether Sedlock could help this year and said something like, "we'll keep an eye on him." Frankly, I think he was just being polite. I agree, he wasn't sounding optimistic about acquiring a starting pitcher.

[weams]

So here we are at the break, 2 games up on Toronto and Boston. I'd rather be 2 up than 2 down, but 2 games is pretty negligible with 75 games to play.

Looking at Boston's upcoming schedule, they play 44 of their remaining 75 games on the road, including a brutal stretch starting July 28 where they have an 11-game West Coast trip, then six games at home, and then another 11 game road trip, with only one day off in that stretch. In fact, the Sox have only one day off between July 19 and August 31. The Sox play 25 games vs. contenders, 23 vs. .500ish teams, and 27 vs. bad teams.

The Jays, on the other hand, have only 71 games remaining, of which 37 are at home. They have 3 off days in July after the break, and another 3 in August. Their longest road trip is 9 games and everything is nicely spaced for them. Of their remaining games, 28 are against contenders, 16 vs. .500ish teams, and 27 against bad teams.

The O's play 41 of the last 75 on the road. They have no off days in July, and only two in August. We have by far the toughest competition, playing 35 games against contenders, 19 against .500ish teams, and only 21 games against bad teams.

Overall, I think the schedule favors the Blue Jays the most because they play more at home than on the road and have a pretty balanced schedule in terms of the competition, with quite a few off days. I think the O's have it the hardest because the quality of their opponents is by far the toughest, though Boston's schedule is the most road-heavy.

Bottom line, I think we really have our work cut out for us. Winning the head-to-head games with Toronto and Boston will be crucial to try to make up for the differences in difficulty of schedule. On that note, we have 9 games with Toronto (6 on the road) and 9 games with Boston (6 at home), while Boston and Toronto play each other only 6 more times (3 at home each).

All in all, I'd make Toronto the slight favorite to win the division.

Blue Jays are four games down in the loss column.