It's going to be a dogfight with Toronto and Boston

[Redskins Rick]

Blue Jays are four games down in the loss column.

and they can just stay that way!!!!!!!!!!

[weams]

and they can just stay that way!!!!!!!!!!

With less games to play, they already have their losses locked away.

[Ohfan67]

I think the status of the trade market and the O's relative lack of tradeable players/prospects means that the O's acquire a lefty reliever and that's probably all. That's a need that hopefully wouldn't cost too much.

[bluedog]

I'm sure I'm going to get killed for saying this. I said the same thing at the mid-point in 2012 and the responses nearly caused me to leave OH for good. But I believed what I said then and I believe it now, so here goes;

It's a good thing that the O's weakness is starting pitching. It's by far the easiest place for a team mid-season to affect immediate and significant improvement.

Hear me out on this before going all flamer on me...

The O's are 15 games above .500 despite the following;

17 starts from a starter with a 7.38 ERA

12 starts from a starter with a 5.97 ERA

9 starts from a starter with a 5.82 ERA

13 starts from a starter with a 5.22 ERA

That's a 6.00 ERA from starters in 51 of 87 starts for the Os this year. It bears repeating - despite this, the O's are 15 games over .500

That suggests that the rest of the team is really, really good to have carried four starters this bad to a .586 winning percentage for more than half a season.

Everyone is concerned that the Blue Jays and Red Sox will make a move and get even better. But to improve a team, you have to replace a player with someone better.

It will be hard for the Blue Jays to improve significantly, because their worst starter has a 4.89 ERA. Adding a league average starter won't move the needle much for them. Even adding a TOR starter will only be expected to make a marginal difference as it will slightly improve one rotation spot. For the Jays, it's going to be harder to improve.

But the O's? Assume for a minute we could magically wave a wand and add three 4.50 ERA guys to our rotation. That would represent a very significant improvement in the team in the second half. It's easy to improve on terrible players and gain games in the standings. So having all the O's worst performances concentrated in just three spots (#3, #4 and #5 starter) is actually an advantage.

It's the "delta effect". It's easier to improve a team with a few horrible players by replacing them with average / above average players than it is to improve a team that has a lot of average / above average players (e.g. the Blue Jays rotation). For the Blue Jays to improve, they need a great player. For the O's to improve we need to add average ones.

And imagine if DD were to make that unimaginable move and trade for a true TOR starter? How much better would the O's be replacing Jiminez and his 7.38 ERA with Rich Hill's 2.25 ERA?

So clearly its never good to have 3 / 5 ths of your starting rotation be this bad. But the silver lining is that it means the O's should be able to more easily improve than the Jays.

Unfortunately, the Red Sox are in a similar position. They have had terrible performances from 2 spots in their rotation all year. If they plug both of those holes at the trade deadline, they would seemingly be stronger than the Jays.

So I think Duquette has to make a couple of moves. He might rely on Gallardo to rebound in the 2nd half, but he has to put at least league average starters into the #4 & #5 slots if the O's want to have a fighting chance. The good news is that if he can make those moves, the team should be even better in the 2nd half than they were in the first.

In 2012 the O's found three quality starters mid-year to stabilize a rotation with 3 huge holes (Tillman & Gonzalez from the Minors, Saunders in trade) and rode them to a playoff berth. It will be interesting to see if DD can do it again this year.

[callahan09]

I'm sure I'm going to get killed for saying this. I said the same thing at the mid-point in 2012 and the responses nearly caused me to leave OH for good. But I believed what I said then and I believe it now, so here goes;

It's a good thing that the O's weakness is starting pitching. It's by far the easiest place for a team mid-season to affect immediate and significant improvement.

Hear me out on this before going all flamer on me...

The O's are 15 games above .500 despite the following;

17 starts from a starter with a 7.38 ERA

12 starts from a starter with a 5.97 ERA

9 starts from a starter with a 5.82 ERA

13 starts from a starter with a 5.22 ERA

That's a 6.00 ERA from starters in 51 of 87 starts for the Os this year. It bears repeating - despite this, the O's are 15 games over .500

That suggests that the rest of the team is really, really good to have carried four starters this bad to a .586 winning percentage for more than half a season.

Everyone is concerned that the Blue Jays and Red Sox will make a move and get even better. But to improve a team, you have to replace a player with someone better.

It will be hard for the Blue Jays to improve significantly, because their worst starter has a 4.89 ERA. Adding a league average starter won't move the needle much for them. Even adding a TOR starter will only be expected to make a marginal difference as it will slightly improve one rotation spot. For the Jays, it's going to be harder to improve.

But the O's? Assume for a minute we could magically wave a wand and add three 4.50 ERA guys to our rotation. That would represent a very significant improvement in the team in the second half. It's easy to improve on terrible players and gain games in the standings. So having all the O's worst performances concentrated in just three spots (#3, #4 and #5 starter) is actually an advantage.

It's the "delta effect". It's easier to improve a team with a few horrible players by replacing them with average / above average players than it is to improve a team that has a lot of average / above average players (e.g. the Blue Jays rotation). For the Blue Jays to improve, they need a great player. For the O's to improve we need to add average ones.

And imagine if DD were to make that unimaginable move and trade for a true TOR starter? How much better would the O's be replacing Jiminez and his 7.38 ERA with Rich Hill's 2.25 ERA?

So clearly its never good to have 3 / 5 ths of your starting rotation be this bad. But the silver lining is that it means the O's should be able to more easily improve than the Jays.

Unfortunately, the Red Sox are in a similar position. They have had terrible performances from 2 spots in their rotation all year. If they plug both of those holes at the trade deadline, they would seemingly be stronger than the Jays.

So I think Duquette has to make a couple of moves. He might rely on Gallardo to rebound in the 2nd half, but he has to put at least league average starters into the #4 & #5 slots if the O's want to have a fighting chance. The good news is that if he can make those moves, the team should be even better in the 2nd half than they were in the first.

In 2012 the O's found three quality starters mid-year to stabilize a rotation with 3 huge holes (Tillman & Gonzalez from the Minors, Saunders in trade) and rode them to a playoff berth. It will be interesting to see if DD can do it again this year.

Seems like a reasonable analysis to me.

[Frobby]

Blue Jays are four games down in the loss column.

I don't think the "loss column" vs. the "win column" matters much with 75 games for us to play. It matters a bit more at the very end of the season because you want to control your own destiny. Barring further rain-outs, we'll have played four more games than Toronto between now and the end of August (three more in July and one more in August). We'll see how we do in that time frame.

[weams]

I'm sure I'm going to get killed for saying this. I said the same thing at the mid-point in 2012 and the responses nearly caused me to leave OH for good. But I believed what I said then and I believe it now, so here goes;

It's a good thing that the O's weakness is starting pitching. It's by far the easiest place for a team mid-season to affect immediate and significant improvement.

Hear me out on this before going all flamer on me...

The O's are 15 games above .500 despite the following;

17 starts from a starter with a 7.38 ERA

12 starts from a starter with a 5.97 ERA

9 starts from a starter with a 5.82 ERA

13 starts from a starter with a 5.22 ERA

That's a 6.00 ERA from starters in 51 of 87 starts for the Os this year. It bears repeating - despite this, the O's are 15 games over .500

That suggests that the rest of the team is really, really good to have carried four starters this bad to a .586 winning percentage for more than half a season.

Everyone is concerned that the Blue Jays and Red Sox will make a move and get even better. But to improve a team, you have to replace a player with someone better.

It will be hard for the Blue Jays to improve significantly, because their worst starter has a 4.89 ERA. Adding a league average starter won't move the needle much for them. Even adding a TOR starter will only be expected to make a marginal difference as it will slightly improve one rotation spot. For the Jays, it's going to be harder to improve.

But the O's? Assume for a minute we could magically wave a wand and add three 4.50 ERA guys to our rotation. That would represent a very significant improvement in the team in the second half. It's easy to improve on terrible players and gain games in the standings. So having all the O's worst performances concentrated in just three spots (#3, #4 and #5 starter) is actually an advantage.

It's the "delta effect". It's easier to improve a team with a few horrible players by replacing them with average / above average players than it is to improve a team that has a lot of average / above average players (e.g. the Blue Jays rotation). For the Blue Jays to improve, they need a great player. For the O's to improve we need to add average ones.

And imagine if DD were to make that unimaginable move and trade for a true TOR starter? How much better would the O's be replacing Jiminez and his 7.38 ERA with Rich Hill's 2.25 ERA?

So clearly its never good to have 3 / 5 ths of your starting rotation be this bad. But the silver lining is that it means the O's should be able to more easily improve than the Jays.

Unfortunately, the Red Sox are in a similar position. They have had terrible performances from 2 spots in their rotation all year. If they plug both of those holes at the trade deadline, they would seemingly be stronger than the Jays.

So I think Duquette has to make a couple of moves. He might rely on Gallardo to rebound in the 2nd half, but he has to put at least league average starters into the #4 & #5 slots if the O's want to have a fighting chance. The good news is that if he can make those moves, the team should be even better in the 2nd half than they were in the first.

In 2012 the O's found three quality starters mid-year to stabilize a rotation with 3 huge holes (Tillman & Gonzalez from the Minors, Saunders in trade) and rode them to a playoff berth. It will be interesting to see if DD can do it again this year.

Why would you get flamed for a well thought out idea such as this? Certainly, no one with any reasonable nature could say otherwise.

[weams]

I don't think the "loss column" vs. the "win column" matters much with 75 games for us to play. It matters a bit more at the very end of the season because you want to control your own destiny. Barring further rain-outs, we'll have played four more games than Toronto between now and the end of August (three more in July and one more in August). We'll see how we do in that time frame.

When you stat that they have less games to play as a reason they might succeed it does.

[weams]

I don't think the "loss column" vs. the "win column" matters much with 75 games for us to play. It matters a bit more at the very end of the season because you want to control your own destiny. Barring further rain-outs, we'll have played four more games than Toronto between now and the end of August (three more in July and one more in August). We'll see how we do in that time frame.

All it means is that they have at the crrent time FOUR more losses than the Orioles. If we played four games and lost them all, we would be tied.

[sportsfan8703]

All it means is that they have at the crrent time FOUR more losses than the Orioles. If we played four games and lost them all, we would be tied.

Loss column is the only one that matters, you're right. We really need O'day back. That way we can yank a SP with a lead in the 5th and reasonably finish the game with Given, Brach, O'day and Britton. You can't do that often but it can work.

[bluedog]

Why would you get flamed for a well thought out idea such as this? Certainly, no one with any reasonable nature could say otherwise.

Well the primary culprit thought I was stupid for suggesting we could fix 3 / 5 ths of the rotation mid-season.

It's certainly doable. The question is how?

[TradeAngelos]

I'm sure I'm going to get killed for saying this. I said the same thing at the mid-point in 2012 and the responses nearly caused me to leave OH for good. But I believed what I said then and I believe it now, so here goes;

It's a good thing that the O's weakness is starting pitching. It's by far the easiest place for a team mid-season to affect immediate and significant improvement.

Hear me out on this before going all flamer on me...

The O's are 15 games above .500 despite the following;

17 starts from a starter with a 7.38 ERA

12 starts from a starter with a 5.97 ERA

9 starts from a starter with a 5.82 ERA

13 starts from a starter with a 5.22 ERA

That's a 6.00 ERA from starters in 51 of 87 starts for the Os this year. It bears repeating - despite this, the O's are 15 games over .500

That suggests that the rest of the team is really, really good to have carried four starters this bad to a .586 winning percentage for more than half a season.

Everyone is concerned that the Blue Jays and Red Sox will make a move and get even better. But to improve a team, you have to replace a player with someone better.

It will be hard for the Blue Jays to improve significantly, because their worst starter has a 4.89 ERA. Adding a league average starter won't move the needle much for them. Even adding a TOR starter will only be expected to make a marginal difference as it will slightly improve one rotation spot. For the Jays, it's going to be harder to improve.

But the O's? Assume for a minute we could magically wave a wand and add three 4.50 ERA guys to our rotation. That would represent a very significant improvement in the team in the second half. It's easy to improve on terrible players and gain games in the standings. So having all the O's worst performances concentrated in just three spots (#3, #4 and #5 starter) is actually an advantage.

It's the "delta effect". It's easier to improve a team with a few horrible players by replacing them with average / above average players than it is to improve a team that has a lot of average / above average players (e.g. the Blue Jays rotation). For the Blue Jays to improve, they need a great player. For the O's to improve we need to add average ones.

And imagine if DD were to make that unimaginable move and trade for a true TOR starter? How much better would the O's be replacing Jiminez and his 7.38 ERA with Rich Hill's 2.25 ERA?

So clearly its never good to have 3 / 5 ths of your starting rotation be this bad. But the silver lining is that it means the O's should be able to more easily improve than the Jays.

Unfortunately, the Red Sox are in a similar position. They have had terrible performances from 2 spots in their rotation all year. If they plug both of those holes at the trade deadline, they would seemingly be stronger than the Jays.

So I think Duquette has to make a couple of moves. He might rely on Gallardo to rebound in the 2nd half, but he has to put at least league average starters into the #4 & #5 slots if the O's want to have a fighting chance. The good news is that if he can make those moves, the team should be even better in the 2nd half than they were in the first.

In 2012 the O's found three quality starters mid-year to stabilize a rotation with 3 huge holes (Tillman & Gonzalez from the Minors, Saunders in trade) and rode them to a playoff berth. It will be interesting to see if DD can do it again this year.

Amazing post. Could not agree more.

[O's are Legends]

The O's are 15 games above .500 despite the following;

17 starts from a starter with a 7.38 ERA

12 starts from a starter with a 5.97 ERA

9 starts from a starter with a 5.82 ERA

13 starts from a starter with a 5.22 ERA

That's a 6.00 ERA from starters in 51 of 87 starts for the Os this year. It bears repeating - despite this, the O's are 15 games over .500

That's whoa

[weams]

Well the primary culprit thought I was stupid for suggesting we could fix 3 / 5 ths of the rotation mid-season.

It's certainly doable. The question is how?

Listen we all know how. Some of us just don't want to accept that we weaken a weakness. That's all. They used to talk about a window closing. It will close when Dan and Buck and Manny and Adam turn out the lights. That's when it will close.

I'm on board with your hypothesis.

[esmd]

If we get O'Day back pitching like he normally does by the end of July, along with a competent SP, I think we'll be fine and will take the division. If not.....murky....