It's going to be a dogfight with Toronto and Boston

[Can_of_corn]

Folks have trouble coming to terms with the fact that the O's are no longer a top defensive club.

[bobmc]

Folks have trouble coming to terms with the fact that the O's are no longer a top defensive club.

We good! No troubles! But we all like flashing leather! :clap3:

[NickM21]

I'm guessing LF and RF (and the outfield in general) really sag down our defensive numbers. I would have to think we are solid otherwise, unless the time that JJ was out hurt us too? What position is hurting us?

[clapdiddy]

Folks have trouble coming to terms with the fact that the O's are no longer a top defensive club.

The infield defense is still very good. The outfield defense is pretty bad.

[Frobby]

The infield defense is still very good. The outfield defense is pretty bad.

Agreed, and people tend to notice the good plays in the infield more than the balls we don't get to in the outfield.

[weams]

https://www.pressboxonline.com/2016/07/14/baltimore-orioles-second-half-six-storylines-to-follow

[pastorfan]

So here we are at the break, 2 games up on Toronto and Boston. I'd rather be 2 up than 2 down, but 2 games is pretty negligible with 75 games to play.

Looking at Boston's upcoming schedule, they play 44 of their remaining 75 games on the road, including a brutal stretch starting July 28 where they have an 11-game West Coast trip, then six games at home, and then another 11 game road trip, with only one day off in that stretch. In fact, the Sox have only one day off between July 19 and August 31. The Sox play 25 games vs. contenders, 23 vs. .500ish teams, and 27 vs. bad teams.

The Jays, on the other hand, have only 71 games remaining, of which 37 are at home. They have 3 off days in July after the break, and another 3 in August. Their longest road trip is 9 games and everything is nicely spaced for them. Of their remaining games, 28 are against contenders, 16 vs. .500ish teams, and 27 against bad teams.

The O's play 41 of the last 75 on the road. They have no off days in July, and only two in August. We have by far the toughest competition, playing 35 games against contenders, 19 against .500ish teams, and only 21 games against bad teams.

Overall, I think the schedule favors the Blue Jays the most because they play more at home than on the road and have a pretty balanced schedule in terms of the competition, with quite a few off days. I think the O's have it the hardest because the quality of their opponents is by far the toughest, though Boston's schedule is the most road-heavy.

Bottom line, I think we really have our work cut out for us. Winning the head-to-head games with Toronto and Boston will be crucial to try to make up for the differences in difficulty of schedule. On that note, we have 9 games with Toronto (6 on the road) and 9 games with Boston (6 at home), while Boston and Toronto play each other only 6 more times (3 at home each).

All in all, I'd make Toronto the slight favorite to win the division.

Excellent analysis and hard to disagree with on paper! I suppose a lot will come down to Bautista's health and who can make a pitching upgrade.

[Frobby]

[The Blue Jays] could be in first place by Sunday. From there they have 2 weeks to start pulling away. If they get up by 4 or 5 games, they have the pitching to sustain it. We got up by 5 and you saw what happened with no pitching.

Well, here it is Sunday and the Blue Jays have lost a game in the standings to us since the ASB. So much for being in first place by then.

[Frobby]

I think I'll use this thread to see how the teams do on a weekly basis. At the all-star break, here were the standings:

BAL 51-36

BOS 49-38

TOR 51-40

Post-ASB Week 1: BAL 3-4, BOS 5-1, TOR 3-2

Current standings:

BOS 54-39

BAL 54-40

TOR 54-42

[Frobby]

Boston will be 8-1 by Monday and then host the Tigers who in recent years have sucked in Fenway.

Maybe. But I'll let them play the games.

By the time that Detroit series is over, the Red Sox will have played 59 games at home and only 40 on the road. So, they will play 41 of their final 63 on the road. They have only one off day between now and Sept. 1. So, no matter what they do this week, it remains to be seen how they'll do in August or the rest of the season.

[btownoriole]

Boston will be 8-1 by Monday and then host the Tigers who in recent years have sucked in Fenway.

Then they play 41 of their final 63 games on the road, including 2 trips to the West Coast. Their "shortest" road trip will be 9 games.

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[FlipTheBird]

They are a decent road team and most of those West Coast teams will be cooked by the time they arrive. I agree however: let's play the games.

I'm less concerned with a team being cooked and more concerned with Boston's roster. They excel at getting on base however possible (something the Orioles don't do), and their starting rotation (though often classified as the weakness) is still leaps and bounds better than the O's. They already had three guys who are pitching better than anyone on our staff not named Chris Tillman BEFORE they acquired Pomeranz.

Maybe their bullpen will falter over the next few weeks. It's short two of its best guns for an indefinite period, and Ziegler, while solid, is far from shutdown. Maybe that's a weakness. But, as it stands, they've got a better lineup than the O's and a better starting rotation than the O's. Our guys will have to play above their heads to win this division.

[Rene88]

Wanna be super depressed? Look at our August schedule. Terrifying.

[FlipTheBird]

Wanna be super depressed? Look at our August schedule. Terrifying.

Yeah, that's going to be a battle. The Rangers in there, a trip to San Fran, 4 games with the Gnats.

That said, the White Sox are bottoming out and the A's stink - and by then they'll have probably moved at least 2-3 of their viable players. If the Yankees finally poop or get off the pot, their cupboards could be a little more bare by that time, too.

And I'm not going to complain about 5 games against the Red Sox and Blue Jays @ Camden Yards. Put up or shut up time, there.

[MDK02]

Let's go Mariners!

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