It's going to be a dogfight with Toronto and Boston

[bluedog]

Amazing post. Could not agree more.

Thanks man. The whole question of improving the team seems a lot more manageable when you don't have to find a premium starter to do it. All we presumably need are average guys.

When I look at ERA lists, these are the names that come up in the 4.30 to 4.60 range;

David Price (Bos) !!!

Dan Straily (CIN)

Mike Fiers (Hou)

Michael Wacha (Stl)

Kendall Graveman (Oak)

Matt Shoemaker (LAA)

Matt Moore (TB)

Jake Odorizzi (TB)

Matt Wisler (Atl)

Adam Wainwright (Stl)

Tom Koehler (Mia)

Collin McHugh (Hou)

Carlos Rodon (CHW)

Scott Kazmir (LAD)

Mike Pelfrey (Det)

Hector Santiago (LAA)

A lot of these guys play for bad teams and should be available. It's also really funny to see David Price listed in this group.

[SteveA]

They could be in first place by Sunday. From there they have 2 weeks to start pulling away. If they get up by 4 or 5 games, they have the pitching to sustain it. We got up by 5 and you saw what happened with no pitching.

Or they could be 5 games out by Sunday. We both play bad teams on the road, no reason to expect them to gain ground on us in the 3 games between now and Sunday.

[bluedog]

Listen we all know how. Some of us just don't want to accept that we weaken a weakness. That's all. They used to talk about a window closing. It will close when Dan and Buck and Manny and Adam turn out the lights. That's when it will close.

I'm on board with your hypothesis.

You are right - we all know how (trade from the minors)

I meant to ask specifically how (as in who do we trade and who do we target).

[SteveA]

I thought the Red Sox had the division wrapped up by June 13th.

The doomsayers have to keep revising their predictions.

Boston is "clearly the best team in the AL". (Tony-OH).

The O's won't survive the brutal June stretch that included Tor, Bos, and the world champs and still be in first (tons of people).

There is a 98% chance the O's will be under .500 by June 20. (NorfolkOrioles).

The O's will be in last place by the All Star Break. (I forget who this was but I know I read it. If I wasn't at work I'd take time to dig it up).

All those failed, so now the doomsayers have to pick new dates for our imminent demise.

[SteveA]

I don't think he really talked up Sedlock. He was asked a question about whether Sedlock could help this year and said something like, "we'll keep an eye on him." Frankly, I think he was just being polite. I agree, he wasn't sounding optimistic about acquiring a starting pitcher.

He also got Sedlock's first name wrong.

[ChuckS]

As opposed to Hardy and Jones?

Those guys have missed a lot more time than Jones over the years.

Hardy is a concern for us, but he's not batting in the middle of the lineup like those guys are.

[weams]

You are right - we all know how (trade from the minors)

I meant to ask specifically how (as in who do we trade and who do we target).

That would be speculation for me. I would prefer myself to not give up Bundy. So, I guess, I am anyone but Bundy. And I guess I mean anyone.

[LookitsPuck]

The doomsayers have to keep revising their predictions.

Boston is "clearly the best team in the AL". (Tony-OH).

The O's won't survive the brutal June stretch that included Tor, Bos, and the world champs and still be in first (tons of people).

There is a 98% chance the O's will be under .500 by June 20. (NorfolkOrioles).

The O's will be in last place by the All Star Break. (I forget who this was but I know I read it. If I wasn't at work I'd take time to dig it up).

All those failed, so now the doomsayers have to pick new dates for our imminent demise.

Boston might very well be the best team in the AL. They have a better offense. A better rotation. A slightly worse bullpen. The one thing is that they have a much better farm system with tradable assets to make their rotation much better.

I still think the Jays are the best. :shrug:

[Can_of_corn]

Boston might very well be the best team in the AL. They have a better offense. A better rotation. A slightly worse bullpen. The one thing is that they have a much better farm system with tradable assets to make their rotation much better.

I still think the Jays are the best. :shrug:

I think it is safe to say they have a greater capacity to add payroll than the Orioles or Blue Jays.

[LookitsPuck]

I think it is safe to say they have a greater capacity to add payroll than the Orioles or Blue Jays.

That's a good point, too.

[BohKnowsBmore]

I don't think he really talked up Sedlock. He was asked a question about whether Sedlock could help this year and said something like, "we'll keep an eye on him." Frankly, I think he was just being polite. I agree, he wasn't sounding optimistic about acquiring a starting pitcher.

Can't really blame him for downplaying it. He mentioned pitching as a key area being targeted this offseason and has been largely pilloried by fans for not making a big signing there.

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[BohKnowsBmore]

I'm sure I'm going to get killed for saying this. I said the same thing at the mid-point in 2012 and the responses nearly caused me to leave OH for good. But I believed what I said then and I believe it now, so here goes;

It's a good thing that the O's weakness is starting pitching. It's by far the easiest place for a team mid-season to affect immediate and significant improvement.

Hear me out on this before going all flamer on me...

The O's are 15 games above .500 despite the following;

17 starts from a starter with a 7.38 ERA

12 starts from a starter with a 5.97 ERA

9 starts from a starter with a 5.82 ERA

13 starts from a starter with a 5.22 ERA

That's a 6.00 ERA from starters in 51 of 87 starts for the Os this year. It bears repeating - despite this, the O's are 15 games over .500

That suggests that the rest of the team is really, really good to have carried four starters this bad to a .586 winning percentage for more than half a season.

Everyone is concerned that the Blue Jays and Red Sox will make a move and get even better. But to improve a team, you have to replace a player with someone better.

It will be hard for the Blue Jays to improve significantly, because their worst starter has a 4.89 ERA. Adding a league average starter won't move the needle much for them. Even adding a TOR starter will only be expected to make a marginal difference as it will slightly improve one rotation spot. For the Jays, it's going to be harder to improve.

But the O's? Assume for a minute we could magically wave a wand and add three 4.50 ERA guys to our rotation. That would represent a very significant improvement in the team in the second half. It's easy to improve on terrible players and gain games in the standings. So having all the O's worst performances concentrated in just three spots (#3, #4 and #5 starter) is actually an advantage.

It's the "delta effect". It's easier to improve a team with a few horrible players by replacing them with average / above average players than it is to improve a team that has a lot of average / above average players (e.g. the Blue Jays rotation). For the Blue Jays to improve, they need a great player. For the O's to improve we need to add average ones.

And imagine if DD were to make that unimaginable move and trade for a true TOR starter? How much better would the O's be replacing Jiminez and his 7.38 ERA with Rich Hill's 2.25 ERA?

So clearly its never good to have 3 / 5 ths of your starting rotation be this bad. But the silver lining is that it means the O's should be able to more easily improve than the Jays.

Unfortunately, the Red Sox are in a similar position. They have had terrible performances from 2 spots in their rotation all year. If they plug both of those holes at the trade deadline, they would seemingly be stronger than the Jays.

So I think Duquette has to make a couple of moves. He might rely on Gallardo to rebound in the 2nd half, but he has to put at least league average starters into the #4 & #5 slots if the O's want to have a fighting chance. The good news is that if he can make those moves, the team should be even better in the 2nd half than they were in the first.

In 2012 the O's found three quality starters mid-year to stabilize a rotation with 3 huge holes (Tillman & Gonzalez from the Minors, Saunders in trade) and rode them to a playoff berth. It will be interesting to see if DD can do it again this year.

I like your angle here. Sorry if you received a very negative response in the past. Not sure why such an opinion would draw ire.

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[bluedog]

That would be speculation for me. I would prefer myself to not give up Bundy. So, I guess, I am anyone but Bundy. And I guess I mean anyone.

Would you do Harvey, Mancini, Mountcastle, Sisco & Scott for Sonny Gray and Rich Hill?

[Frobby]

That's a 6.00 ERA from starters in 51 of 87 starts for the Os this year. It bears repeating - despite this, the O's are 15 games over .500

That suggests that the rest of the team is really, really good to have carried four starters this bad to a .586 winning percentage for more than half a season.

Everyone is concerned that the Blue Jays and Red Sox will make a move and get even better. But to improve a team, you have to replace a player with someone better.

It will be hard for the Blue Jays to improve significantly, because their worst starter has a 4.89 ERA. Adding a league average starter won't move the needle much for them. Even adding a TOR starter will only be expected to make a marginal difference as it will slightly improve one rotation spot. For the Jays, it's going to be harder to improve.

But the O's? Assume for a minute we could magically wave a wand and add three 4.50 ERA guys to our rotation. That would represent a very significant improvement in the team in the second half. It's easy to improve on terrible players and gain games in the standings. So having all the O's worst performances concentrated in just three spots (#3, #4 and #5 starter) is actually an advantage.

Thing is, I don't think we can wave a magic wand and find those three 4.50 ERA starters. The market is very thin this year. So, is our team the easiest to improve by replacing bad pitchers with mediocre ones? Sure. But I don't know that we have what it takes to buy those mediocre ones.

In 2013, we had the same issue and acquired Feldman and Norris. We gave up Arrieta, Strop, Hoes, Hader and a draft pick to acquire them. I think the price will be higher this time around due to market conditions, and our talent pool to trade away is much weaker than last time.

[backwardsk]

Would you do Harvey, Mancini, Mountcastle, Sisco & Scott for Sonny Gray and Rich Hill?

I would not. That could very well be four contributors making a combined. $2.2M.