TT: Let's face it, this team is not a playoff caliber team

[Tx Oriole]

There's an entire thread concerning how newly acquired Michael Bourne and Drew Stubbs could be added to the playoff roster. Let's just hope this becomes an issue.

This team is 25-30 since July 1st and now tied for the last wildcard with Detroit and are only one game ahead of Houston (who treats the Orioles like a red-headed step child when they play them) while the Yankees are just 2.5 games back. They are two games back of Boston and four games back from Toronto, both or which are clearly better ball clubs than the Orioles at this stage of the season.

Tillman and O'day are on the DL, AJ is dinged up, and our starting rotation includes Gallardo, Jimenez (who's pitched good his last two starts but could implode at any moment), a tired Bundy, and a guy who has put up a 7.14 ERA in his seven starts with the O's (Miley).

This team is not better than Houston or probably even the Yankees at this point.

Face it, acquiring Bourne and Stubbs did nothing to move the needle and this team has been a 4th place team in the AL East since July 1st and is probably going to end up there.

The Orioles gave this season a good run, but they are 6-11 against the AL East since July 1st and if you take away the lowly Rays, they are 4-10 against Boston, the Yankees and Blue Jays.

Just about every pitching acquisition Dan Duquette has made this season, including the offseason has back fired. Gallardo has a 5.62 ERA and a 1.62 WHIP, Miley has put up a 7.14 ERA and 1.65 WHIP in seven starts, Odrisamer Despaigne has a 5.60 and 1.72 WHIP in 27.1 IP and, Logan Ondrusek, who inexplicably was signed to a major league contract after being released by his Japaneses team and hadn't pitched successfully in the major leagues since at least 2013, put up a 9.95 ERA and 1.90 WHIP in 6.1 innings before being rightfully DFA'd. Only Vance Worley has been decent in the long reliever/spot starter role.

When you looked at the starting pitching Toronto was sending out there compared to the Orioles, it was strikingly different.

Let's hope through some miracle that they Orioles can defeat all statistical and scouting evidence and make a run in September, but if I were a betting man, I'd say the Orioles have a lot better chance of finishing 4th in the AL East than winning a wild card.

I hope they can get on a run.

[jjnono]

The front office has NO answers for the poor pitching at this point. And it's a problem of their own making. Failure to upgrade what was clearly a problem in the offseason (in fact, you could say the problem has been made worse) should put Duquette under a microscope of scrutiny...

[hoosiers]

I've waited this long, so I'm going to save my heavy criticism for the offseason, but the SP has been a hot mess most of the year and if this is not a playoff caliber team then one has to look at the moves last offseason by our GM has pure horse bleep.

Since it appears we will fall well short of the division title, it appears most moves last offseason may have been designed by someone dreaming of a WC spot for that 50/50 game - we appear to have sacrificed a lot for that dream - multiple high draft picks, a very large, long term contract to a player (not named Machado) unlikely to match the expected performance, and a two year contract to a SP with nothing in the tank.

I hope we can turn it around, but it is difficult to go on a multi-game winning streak with our current SP, and most teams will add more talent to their September roster than the Os. IMO, this has been evident since last offseason.

[SeaBird]

The Yankees were 17-11 in August and 30-24 since July 1st. Are they really a weak team?

Not weak at all and the "young blood" infusion via Cashman's deals has changed the complexion of their roster for the better. They just took 2 of 3 from the defending World Champions.

[Aristotelian]

I just don't get how we can have been so good in the first half and so bad the last two months. We were above average in OBP through May and #1 in MLB in June. Almost overnight we have gone to near worst in MLB in July and August. I have to think we are better than this, just not sure if we have enough to hold off the teams that are peaking at the right time.

[FanAddict]

The front office has NO answers for the poor pitching at this point. And it's a problem of their own making. Failure to upgrade what was clearly a problem in the offseason (in fact, you could say the problem has been made worse) should put Duquette under a microscope of scrutiny...

These seeds were sewn a long time ago.

Modern contention for the Orioles (2012 - now) has been centered around a power offense. Davis, Jones, a couple of dingers from the catcher position, and lots of homers from the DH (whether it be Cruz, Trumbo or even Reynolds a few years back).

We have never really been able to break away from that and even our homegrown guys began adding to that. Manny is amazing and a worldbeater in every facet, but our next best homegrown guy is a power and defense guy without the OBP (Schoop).

A sizable portion of our payroll has been dedicated to this. I think any attempt to deleverage that strength is risky. There have been some feeble attempts to offset the power with OBP along the way (Rikard, Kim, ?), but we had (have) a lot of our core assembled from high power/low OBP guys.

There never was a whole lot of payroll flexibility to shore up the rotation as a hedge for Bundy, Guasman, Tillman, et al, either not living up to expectations or getting injured. I think the FO banked on a "pivot" to homegrown starting pitching but that hasn't played out. When you look back, it's easy to say we should have taken UJ's 13 M, Gallardo's 11M, and Miley's 9M and gone after a quality FA SP, but that's hindsight. Even considering that hindsight, like it or not, the FO has always been weary of large FA pitching contracts that more often than not are a ticking timebomb.

Call me an apologist but I truly believe this was all set in motion with some fortunate trade acquisitions years ago. Ever since then, the FO has continued to double down on that strategy.

[LookitsPuck]

I just don't get how we can have been so good in the first half and so bad the last two months. We were above average in OBP through May and #1 in MLB in June. Almost overnight we have gone to near worst in MLB in July and August. I have to think we are better than this, just not sure if we have enough to hold off the teams that are peaking at the right time.

You're not as good as you are when you're hot (June), and you're not bad as you are when you're not (July). But here are the R/G over the months:

April: 4.7

May: 4.1

June: 6.6

July: 3.4

August: 4.6

If you take out the outliers, this team is right around a 4.5 R/G team.

The reason we were so good in June is the hitting was able to outpace the terrible starting pitching. The last couple months they haven't.

RA/G:

April: 3.7

May: 4.6

June: 5.0

July: 4.4

August: 5.3

So just look at the last 2 months where this team had losing months.

July: scored 3.4 runs a game, but allowed 4.4

August: scored 4.6 runs a game, but allowed 5.3

It's all pitching, folks. We can get down about how inconsistent the hitting is. And they have been. But look no further than the 3 game set against the Yankees to see what bad pitching will do even if you score a decent amount of runs.

I'm actually amazed the team is where they are considering the awful rotation.

Starting pitching by month:

April: 4.55 ERA

May: 4.69 ERA

June: 5.56 ERA

July: 5.18 ERA

August: 4.69 ERA

It's all been about the bullpen...until lately:

April: 2.24 ERA

May: 3.12 ERA

June: 3.79 ERA

July: 2.95 ERA

August: 6.45 ERA

[LookitsPuck]

These seeds were sewn a long time ago.

Modern contention for the Orioles (2012 - now) has been centered around a power offense. Davis, Jones, a couple of dingers from the catcher position, and lots of homers from the DH (whether it be Cruz, Trumbo or even Reynolds a few years back).

We have never really been able to break away from that and even our homegrown guys began adding to that. Manny is amazing and a worldbeater in every facet, but our next best homegrown guy is a power and defense guy without the OBP (Schoop).

A sizable portion of our payroll has been dedicated to this. I think any attempt to deleverage that strength is risky. There have been some feeble attempts to offset the power with OBP along the way (Rikard, Kim, ?), but we had (have) a lot of our core assembled from high power/low OBP guys.

There never was a whole lot of payroll flexibility to shore up the rotation as a hedge for Bundy, Guasman, Tillman, et al, either not living up to expectations or getting injured. I think the FO banked on a "pivot" to homegrown starting pitching but that hasn't played out. When you look back, it's easy to say we should have taken UJ's 13 M, Gallardo's 11M, and Miley's 9M and gone after a quality FA SP, but that's hindsight. Even considering that hindsight, like it or not, the FO has always been weary of large FA pitching contracts that more often than not are a ticking timebomb.

Call me an apologist but I truly believe this was all set in motion with some fortunate trade acquisitions years ago. Ever since then, the FO has continued to double down on that strategy.

Call me crazy, but $155m should buy you a consistent playoff team if you handle your finances properly and have the necessary young, impact depth in the minors.

The Orioles would be in a much better spot if they could call up some real talent when Tillman got hurt. Or when Gallardo seemingly turned into a pumpkin again. Or when they went out and acquired Miley.

But it shouldn't shock anyone that no new starters were called up this year.

[Tx Oriole]

I just don't get how we can have been so good in the first half and so bad the last two months. We were above average in OBP through May and #1 in MLB in June. Almost overnight we have gone to near worst in MLB in July and August. I have to think we are better than this, just not sure if we have enough to hold off the teams that are peaking at the right time.

I am with you on that. I have the same question. What could have happened when they were doing so well first part of the season?

[Can_of_corn]

Call me crazy, but $155m should buy you a consistent playoff team if you handle your finances properly and have the necessary young, impact depth in the minors.

The Orioles would be in a much better spot if they could call up some real talent when Tillman got hurt. Or when Gallardo seemingly turned into a pumpkin again. Or when they went out and acquired Miley.

But it shouldn't shock anyone that no new starters were called up this year.

It's because Dan hates Gunkel.

[FanAddict]

Call me crazy, but $155m should buy you a consistent playoff team if you handle your finances properly and have the necessary young, impact depth in the minors.

The Orioles would be in a much better spot if they could call up some real talent when Tillman got hurt. Or when Gallardo seemingly turned into a pumpkin again. Or when they went out and acquired Miley.

But it shouldn't shock anyone that no new starters were called up this year.

The 155M payroll is a relatively new thing to the O's. As far as the farm, while I agree with you somewhat, I think maybe Harvey would have been that guy, were it not for injury after injury. Outside of that, maybe Davies but he is gone.

Our farm system is weird to me because it has supplied a lot of solid major league players for the club but there has been a relative dearth in ML ready starting pitching at the high levels.

[CanadianOriole]

It's bleak right now - and I agree we are fading. However, in March if you'd told me "September 1 the O's are tied for the Wild Card, 4 games out of first, and Bundy and Gausman have both shown flashes and are in the rotation" I'd have signed up for that in a nanosecond. I figured 75 wins for this team and Bundy in mop up role all year. Bundy and Gausman on Fri/Sat vs the Yankees to start September with the playoffs very much in reach? I'm on board!

[LookitsPuck]

The 155M payroll is a relatively new thing to the O's. As far as the farm, while I agree with you somewhat, I think maybe Harvey would have been that guy, were it not for injury after injury. Outside of that, maybe Davies but he is gone.

Our farm system is weird to me because it has supplied a lot of solid major league players for the club but there has been a relative dearth in ML ready starting pitching at the high levels.

Yeah, it definitely is a new thing...most likely because Wieters was the wild card and they didn't anticipate him accepting. It wouldn't shock me to see the payroll level off around $135m next year.

[FanAddict]

Yeah, it definitely is a new thing...most likely because Wieters was the wild card and they didn't anticipate him accepting. It wouldn't shock me to see the payroll level off around $135m next year.

I'm very interested in what the "pivot" for the franchise does look like. I guess a lot of it depends on what they do with Manny, but for the life of me, I cannot see a situation where they keep him. Consistent solid performance from Guasman and Bundy for the next couple of years would certainly give the team a lot more flexibility as some of the bad contracts come off the books. More or less dead money next year though to pay UJ, Gallardo, and Miley.

[FlipTheBird]

Call me crazy, but $155m should buy you a consistent playoff team if you handle your finances properly and have the necessary young, impact depth in the minors.

The Orioles would be in a much better spot if they could call up some real talent when Tillman got hurt. Or when Gallardo seemingly turned into a pumpkin again. Or when they went out and acquired Miley.

But it shouldn't shock anyone that no new starters were called up this year.

The Tigers have spent more than that, and may not make the playoffs. The Cardinals have spent more than that, and may not make the playoffs. The Yankees and the Angels, too. The Mets and Mariners are just a hair below the O's, and nobody would call them "consistent playoff teams."

Managing an organization is not easy. It's why there are only so few people that are well-regarded in the job.