Jump to content

If we can win the series in Boston, I like our chances for a division title

Frobby

By Frobby
in Orioles Talk

Recommended Posts

JohnD Major Leaguer

JohnD

Posted
Posted
538, Baseball Prospectus and Fangraphs all project Boston to take the AL East with 91 wins. That means the Orioles will have to go 14-7 the rest of the way to finish tied with Boston for first place in the AL East. Winning 2/3 at Boston really won't mean much of anything if the Orioles fail to follow it up by beating them 3/4 next week at home. Plus they'll probably have to take either 2/3 in Toronto or New York during the last week of the season. It's far from impossible but it's still a pretty tall order.

Didn't all those smart guys project the Orioles to be playing out the string right now too?

Analytics are great. I really dig them. But they don't predict the future. I know, I know, they offer a good indication of what's reasonable to expect... except when it doesn't happen.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
  • Replies 107
  • Created
  • Last Reply
Aristotelian Hangout Grand Counsel

Aristotelian

Posted
Posted

Dang Frobby, I am not even thinking about the division right now. The Yankees are right on our tails, and the Tigers aren't dead yet. Even SEA or HOU could still get hot. I feel good right now about getting one of the wild cards, but it's not a slam dunk at all. Lose this series and we might not make the playoffs! As you said on the other thread, this is going to be a crazy ride right down to the end.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Frobby Hangout Grand Counsel

Frobby

Posted
  • Author
Posted
Dang Frobby, I am not even thinking about the division right now. The Yankees are right on our tails, and the Tigers aren't dead yet. Even SEA or HOU could still get hot. I feel good right now about getting one of the wild cards, but it's not a slam dunk at all.

I decided I would rather be thinking on the aggressive side rather than on the defensive side. Yes, there are a million ways that some team could catch us from behind, but right now we are tied for first wild card position and have the same distance between us and the division leader as there is between us and the next closest team in the wild card race. So think positive! I remember we were in a similar position in 2012 and Buck kept the team focused on catching the Yankees rather than worrying about the teams chasing them for the WC spot. I like that attitude.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Frobby Hangout Grand Counsel

Frobby

Posted
  • Author
Posted
.What would 12-8 get us? That would be .600 baseball (we are currently at .549). 14-6 might be too much to ask.

It would depend a little on who we beat to get the 12 wins. Beat Boston 5 of 7 and take 2 of 3 from both Toronto and New York, and 12 might get us the division title. I'd certainly feel very good about the wild card with 12 wins no matter who we beat.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Dannyboy Major Leaguer Cup of Coffee

Dannyboy

Posted
Posted
Dang Frobby, I am not even thinking about the division right now. The Yankees are right on our tails, and the Tigers aren't dead yet. Even SEA or HOU could still get hot. I feel good right now about getting one of the wild cards, but it's not a slam dunk at all. Lose this series and we might not make the playoffs! As you said on the other thread, this is going to be a crazy ride right down to the end.

Focus on the division first because 7 of the next 11 are against the division leader.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
SilentJames Hangout Veteran Council

SilentJames

Posted
Posted
Price, Pomeranz, and Porcello have been pitching really well over the last month. Yes, it would be great news if the O's could take 2 of 3, but I think the odds are long.

They also have also only had two series against contenders dating back to August 22, and that is if you really want to include the Royals, who were only a handful of games over 500 when they played them. They have gotten fat off the soft spot of their schedule - but they have built momentum, They had to burn some pitchers yesterday let's see how that plays out today. Even then they only went 11-8 Their current situation at the top has more to do with the Orioles' stumbling through July and August and Toronto's recent downturn.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Tx Oriole Hangout Grand Counsel

Tx Oriole

Posted
Posted
Very tough series coming up, but if we somehow come away with 2 out of 3, I like our chances of winning the division title. We'd be one game down with 17 to play, including 7 home games against bad teams and 4 home games with the Sox. Boston has only three remaining games against sub-.500 teams, and that's a road series with Tampa. Toronto has 7 games against losing teams remaining, but four are on the road in Anaheim.

Don't want to get too far ahead of myself, let's find a way to win this series first!

(And Roy, I am in no mood to hear any doom and gloom about how the Red Sox are some invincible super-team that has us hopelessly outmatched. Our players don't shrink from a challenge and they'll be ready to do battle.)

If they can win 2 of 3 that would be great.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
slakattack Hangout Veteran Council

slakattack

Posted
Posted
No team is unstoppable.

"Great moments are born from great opportunity.

And that's what you have here, tonight, boys.

That's what you've earned here tonight...

I'm sick and tired of hearing what a great team they have, tonight it's your night.

Now go out there and take it!"

...with apologies to Herbie

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Go to topic listing


  • Posts

    • OsFanSinceThe80s
      Snell vs Burnes

      By OsFanSinceThe80s · Posted

      I also went with Burnes because of his better durability. Since 2019 Snell has pitched more then 128 innings in a season one time (180 innings in 2023). While Burnes has pitched over 167 inning or more every season since becoming a full time starter in 2021. Burnes is also two years younger so in theory while a six year contract is riskier it would end at the same age as Snell on a four year deal. I'd be happy with either one, but my preference in Burnes.
    • Aristotelian
      Snell vs Burnes

      By Aristotelian · Posted

      Adding that I would go for Roki over either of them.
    • Aristotelian
      Snell vs Burnes

      By Aristotelian · Posted

      I'd go for Snell. He has true Cy Young stuff. Burnes is really good but his K rate keeps dropping and the years scare me. The box score for his playoff start was solid but he actually gave up a lot of hard contact. I just don't trust him enough to commit all those years and dollars.
    • Spy Fox
      Snell vs Burnes

      By Spy Fox · Posted

      I go Burnes because to me the higher floor is very important with this sort of deal. I feel like Snell's skillset is more on a razor's edge-- if you didn't like how Burnes pitched in August, Snell is almost certainly more prone to stretches of poor performance like that. Even if he is more dominant at other times to balance it out. Plus, the extra length of Burnes' deal is offset a bit by being 2 years younger. 
    • oriolediehard
      Snell vs Burnes

      By oriolediehard · Posted

      Snell is injury prone and Burnes is a tough workhorse.
    • Can_of_corn
      Other teams playoffs game thread

      By Can_of_corn · Posted

      Didn't see the video? The ball went maybe 15 feet before it bounced, it was rolling by the dugout.  It was nothing and the Dodgers look soft. Was he supposed to let the discarded ball stay on the field?
    • Just Regular
      Other teams playoffs game thread

      By Just Regular · Posted

      Rojas pulled from the bases in the 3rd inning after he couldn't manage 2nd to home on a Mookie single (and Ohtani couldn't 1st to 3rd behind him) as the Dodgers try to dig out of 6-1.    Rojas' limited mobility hurt the Dodgers defense on a Bogaerts ground ball where Merrill was too quick going first to second, and Rojas ended up getting no outs on a routine ground ball. Manny with a cagey zigzag baserunning move during the Padres 6-run inning off Buehler, getting into Freeman's throwing lane to put Buehler into the jam. Teoscar grand slam brings it back to 6-5 in the 3rd inning...get your popcorn ready.

  • Popular Contributors

×
×
  • Create New...