Is Trumbo as good as gone?

[Aristotelian]

1 hour ago, Redskins Rick said:

Mancini is nothing more than a prospect. You can't say he will replace 50% of Trumbo's production, as he is an unknown.

 

Of course. I should say Mancini "probably" replaces 50% of Trumbo's production. (It is possible that he does better than that). 

But there are no guarantees, even with a veteran. It is likely that 2017 Trumbo won't replace 2016 Trumbo's production.

[Number5]

5 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

Of course. I should say Mancini "probably" replaces 50% of Trumbo's production. (It is possible that he does better than that). 

But there are no guarantees, even with a veteran. It is likely that 2017 Trumbo won't replace 2016 Trumbo's production.

We're all day  to day. 

[crawjo]

I hope Trumbo does not come back. He was a 2 WAR player when he lead all of baseball in home runs. The only thing he is good at on a baseball field is hitting home runs. Every other part of the game, he is either mediocre or terrible. He is substantially overrated by a lot of people on this board, as indicated in this thread. 

[Redskins Rick]

38 minutes ago, Number5 said:

We're all day  to day. 

Aint that the truth.

Over the years, we have all seen our share of sure fire, no miss guys, that do exactly that.

While I am not predicting Mancini is going to do that, its still entirely possible.

I hate to see so much hype put on the guy, that it puts added pressure on him to succeed.

[Redskins Rick]

27 minutes ago, crawjo said:

I hope Trumbo does not come back. He was a 2 WAR player when he lead all of baseball in home runs. The only thing he is good at on a baseball field is hitting home runs. Every other part of the game, he is either mediocre or terrible. He is substantially overrated by a lot of people on this board, as indicated in this thread. 

On the other hand, he was also substantially underrated by many posters.

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, Redskins Rick said:

On the other hand, he was also substantially underrated by many posters.

Not sure how he can be substantially underrated?

We got folks saying he shouldn't have a job in MLB?

[Redskins Rick]

Just now, Can_of_corn said:

Not sure how he can be substantially underrated?

We got folks saying he shouldn't have a job in MLB?

When you say somebody is mediocre or terrible at everything but one thing, that is pretty underrated.

As with many topics in OH, you have folks saying somebody walks on water and yet, you have folks claiming that same person doesn't deserve to be in the league.

The fun of the off-season.

[webbrick2010]

36 minutes ago, crawjo said:

I hope Trumbo does not come back. He was a 2 WAR player when he lead all of baseball in home runs. The only thing he is good at on a baseball field is hitting home runs. Every other part of the game, he is either mediocre or terrible. He is substantially overrated by a lot of people on this board, as indicated in this thread. 

Amen

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, Redskins Rick said:

When you say somebody is mediocre or terrible at everything but one thing, that is pretty underrated.

As with many topics in OH, you have folks saying somebody walks on water and yet, you have folks claiming that same person doesn't deserve to be in the league.

The fun of the off-season.

Outfield defense-  Pretty bad

Baserunning- Pretty bad

Batting average- Pretty bad

OBA- Pretty bad

I'll admit he's a decent defender at first but that isn't relevant to the discussion.

Other than power what does he bring to the table?  A decent arm once he runs down the ball he couldn't catch?

He's a 0-2 win player.

 

[Redskins Rick]

1 minute ago, webbrick2010 said:

Amen

So he was only a 2 WAR.

Tell me, what production did we have the year before when we had Synder and Parra?

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, Redskins Rick said:

So he was only a 2 WAR.

Tell me, what production did we have the year before when we had Synder and Parra?

Snider actually put up .9 rWAR in 69 games for the O's.  Which is a better rWAR/G rate than Trumbo had in 2016.

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, Can_of_corn said:

Snider actually put up .9 rWAR in 69 games for the O's.  Which is a better rWAR/G rate than Trumbo had in 2016. 

Parra of course was a trainwreck.

 

I'd have rather of just kept Snider.

[jabba72]

The Orioles dont need Trumbo's HR's when they can sign Carter and probably get close to the same HR production and OF defense to boot. Trumbo isnt coming back. 

[tntoriole]

5 hours ago, ChuckS said:

A bit of hindsight bias here.  The contract Cruz got from the Mariners was universally considered a bad contract.  No one thought he would keep hitting like that.  Generally speaking, handing out large contracts to players coming off of career years in the early to mid 30's is bad business.  

I have no interest in paying Trumbo what he would cost given the current configuration of the team.  If we didn't have Davis it would be a different story. 

Actually, some of us had foresight bias, not hindsight.  I badly wanted us to sign Cruz to the 4 years, said so then, repeated it after the first year, and now the second year.    Write it down...Nelson will far exceed that contract by his continued production AND then another team will pay him even more after that to DH.   I said then that Cruz was "a right handed Ortiz" and he will hit till he is 40 or beyond, imho. 

[Number5]

59 minutes ago, tntoriole said:

Actually, some of us had foresight bias, not hindsight.  I badly wanted us to sign Cruz to the 4 years, said so then, repeated it after the first year, and now the second year.    Write it down...Nelson will far exceed that contract by his continued production AND then another team will pay him even more after that to DH.   I said then that Cruz was "a right handed Ortiz" and he will hit till he is 40 or beyond, imho. 

Betting the deed to the house on an inside straight draw is a bad bet, whether the player ends up catching the card or not.

Trying to divine what players will fall into the tiny minority that play at a high level into their 40's and contracting to pay them in advance for that level of production is a recipe for disaster.