Various Orioles related FanGraphs articles

[25 Nuggets]

4 hours ago, BohKnowsBmore said:

The Davis post got me thinking...

 

how many teams' top three position players would you take over the Orioles trio:

Machado

jones

davis

Boston (Betts, Pedroia, Bradley)

Cleveland (Lindor, Kipnis, Encarnacion or Brantley if he's healthy)

Houston (Altuve, Correa, Springer)

LA Angels (Trout, Simmons and I don't care)

Chicago Cubs (Bryant, Rizzo, best of Baez / Fowler / Russell / Zobrist)

Colorado (Arenado, Story, LeMahieu)

...a few others (Washington, Arizona, LA Dodgers) are close.

[Babypowder]

10 hours ago, BohKnowsBmore said:

The Davis post got me thinking...

 

how many teams' top three position players would you take over the Orioles trio:

Machado

jones

davis

Not considering age/contract/control

Angels (Trout, Calhoun, Simmons)

Astros (Altuve, Correa, Springer)

Cubs (Bryant, Rizzo, Zobrist/Russell)

Dodgers (Seager, Turner, Pederson)

Giants (Crawford, Belt, Posey)

Indians (Lindor, Kipnis, Ramirez/Santana/Encarnacion)

Mariners (Cano, Seager, Cruz)

Nationals (pick 3 Murphy, Rendon, Harper, Turner, Eaton)

Red Sox (any combination of Betts, Pedroia, Bradley, Bogaerts)

Rockies  (Arenado, LaMahieu, Blackmon/Story)

Tigers (Kinsler, Cabrera, anyone else)

[ArtVanDelay]

11 minutes ago, Babypowder said:

Not considering age/contract/control

Angels (Trout, Calhoun, Simmons)

Astros (Altuve, Correa, Springer)

Cubs (Bryant, Rizzo, Zobrist/Russell)

Dodgers (Seager, Turner, Pederson)

Giants (Crawford, Belt, Posey)

Indians (Lindor, Kipnis, Ramirez/Santana/Encarnacion)

Mariners (Cano, Seager, Cruz)

Nationals (pick 3 Murphy, Rendon, Harper, Turner, Eaton)

Red Sox (any combination of Betts, Pedroia, Bradley, Bogaerts)

Rockies  (Arenado, LaMahieu, Blackmon/Story)

Tigers (Kinsler, Cabrera, anyone else)

I'd add:

Blue Jays (Donaldson, Tulo, Pillar)

Pirates (Marte, Polanco, McCutchen)

[Babypowder]

2 hours ago, ArtVanDelay said:

I'd add:

Blue Jays (Donaldson, Tulo, Pillar)

Pirates (Marte, Polanco, McCutchen)

I won't argue against either one as I considered both, they're near equal for me. For the Jays, Donaldson is better than anyone we have but Tulo just isn't that good anymore and while Pillar is an elite defender he was the worst offensive regular in baseball last year.

For the Pirates, Marte is very good but a tier below Machado, Polcano is decent but only a bit above average (like Davis), and McCutchen I put in the same category as Jones: a once very good but likely to be in decline player coming off a bad year.

[Can_of_corn]

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-orioles-might-have-a-decision-to-make/

 

Quote

This group is considerably more impressive than the one composed of players currently in the last year of their contracts. Here we find one of the very best players in baseball — maybe the best in the non-Mike Trout division — the best Orioles player in the last decade, one of the very best closers in the game, and a close to average starting pitcher. These four players represent roughly one-third of the Orioles’ projected WAR in 2017, with Chris Davis (2.5) and Kevin Gausman (3.1) representing the only other players who receive above-average projections. The Orioles could take this group, make a few major free-agent signings, and attempt to contend in 2018. Alternatively, they could try to accelerate their rebuilding process.

Wow Craig Edwards is down on Tillman.  Just sayin'

[ArtVanDelay]

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/who-needs-a-new-pitch-the-most/

Dylan Bundy had a 9.30 FIP the third time through the order in 2016 and his K% basically dropped in half. 

Not surprising, since we all knew he wore down during heavier workloads.  Hopefully that's less of a problem in 2017. 

[Can_of_corn]

4 minutes ago, ArtVanDelay said:

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/who-needs-a-new-pitch-the-most/

Dylan Bundy had a 9.30 FIP the third time through the order in 2016 and his K% basically dropped in half. 

Not surprising, since we all knew he wore down during heavier workloads.  Hopefully that's less of a problem in 2017. 

Cutter should  help.

Obviously I never would have had him out there past the fifth.  I found his useage alarming.

[Frobby]

He wasn't really conditioned to be a starting pitcher last spring, so it's not surprising that he tired more than most starting pitchers.    Obviously his mindset will be different this year.   But, it's something for Buck to keep an eye on.

[Can_of_corn]

7 minutes ago, Frobby said:

He wasn't really conditioned to be a starting pitcher last spring, so it's not surprising that he tired more than most starting pitchers.    Obviously his mindset will be different this year.   But, it's something for Buck to keep an eye on.

I don't think his conditioning last spring was to blame.

I think it was the size of the workload after missing so much time.

 

[Frobby]

19 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I don't think his conditioning last spring was to blame.

I think it was the size of the workload after missing so much time.

 

That makes sense.   

[Can_of_corn]

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-pitchers-hurt-most-by-a-higher-strike-zone/

And Britton's name isn't listed.

Huzzah!

[Can_of_corn]

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/chris-tillman-the-orioles-and-rotation-depth/

[Can_of_corn]

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/explaining-the-depressed-market-for-sluggers/

The depressed market for free agent sluggers.

Basically both Cameron and the crowd sourcing missed big time this year, especially on guaranteed years.

[Frobby]

Within this comparison group, we did pretty well on Trumbo.   The average "discount" from Cameron's predictions was 83% of AAV and 73% of total contract. We got Trumbo for 76% of Cameron's projected AAV and 57% of his projected total value.    The average discount from the crowdsourced AAV was 92% and total contract  70%.    We got Trumbo for  84% of crowdsourced AAV and 63% of total contract.    

Chris Carter wasn't on the list, presumably because Cameron didn't bother to project him or have fangraphs' readers crowdsource him.     That tells you he wasn't very highly regarded, when you consider that guys like Steve Pearce were projected.   

[Can_of_corn]

4 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Within this comparison group, we did pretty well on Trumbo.   The average "discount" from Cameron's predictions was 83% of AAV and 73% of total contract. We got Trumbo for 76% of AAV and 57% of total value.    The average discount from the crowdsourced AAV was 92% and total contact 70%.    We got Trumbo for  84% of crowdsourced AAV and 63% of total contract.    

Chris Carter wasn't on the list, presumably because Cameron didn't bother to project him or have fangraphs' readers crowdsource him.     That tells you he wasn't very highly regarded, when you consider that guys like Steve Pearce were projected.   

The list was culled from the Top 50 Free Agents list.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2017-top-50-free-agents/