Fangraphs poll: O's fans pessimistic?

[Frobby]

Fangraphs is running a poll where fans of every team can rate how happy they are about the overall state of their franchise.   You can vote in the poll or see the results here: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/come-rate-your-favorite-baseball-team/

Right now the majority of voters give the Orioles 3 out of 5 -- "more good than bad."    But the voters who have given a rating of 2 or below outnumber those who have given a 4 or 5 by a pretty good margin.   There are even a few rating the O's at 0 -- "everything blows!"    

[Spy Fox]

I'd bet that O's fans who read Fangraphs regularly enough to vote in those polls are probably more pessimistic about the team on the whole than the average fan.

Also, the phrasing of the 4 and 5 options ("Couldn't ask for much more" and "Everything is wonderful") are pretty strong!

[Frobby]

2 hours ago, Spy Fox said:

I'd bet that O's fans who read Fangraphs regularly enough to vote in those polls are probably more pessimistic about the team on the whole than the average fan.

Also, the phrasing of the 4 and 5 options ("Couldn't ask for much more" and "Everything is wonderful") are pretty strong!

Just looking at our division, the Yankees and Blue Jays fans are more optimistic than ours.    And of course, Boston's fans are extremely optimistic.   

I should be clear here that the poll isn't merely about 2017, but the overall state of the franchise.    I think a lot of fans see a cliff coming at the end of 2018, and that's why the grades are low.   

[Can_of_corn]

2 hours ago, Spy Fox said:

I'd bet that O's fans who read Fangraphs regularly enough to vote in those polls are probably more pessimistic about the team on the whole than the average fan.

Also, the phrasing of the 4 and 5 options ("Couldn't ask for much more" and "Everything is wonderful") are pretty strong!

 

7 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Just looking at our division, the Yankees and Blue Jays fans are more optimistic than ours.    And of course, Boston's fans are extremely optimistic.   

I should be clear here that the poll isn't merely about 2017, but the overall state of the franchise.    I think a lot of fans see a cliff coming at the end of 2018, and that's why the grades are low.   

I agree with Spy Fox that the Oriole fans that also read Fangraphs are more likely to be pessimistic and that is because they are more likely to see that cliff.

[Frobby]

11 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

 

I agree with Spy Fox that the Oriole fans that also read Fangraphs are more likely to be pessimistic and that is because they are more likely to see that cliff.

Probably so.

[Number5]

43 minutes ago, Stevie Janowski said:

Because generally if you're the type of fan that reads Fangraphs, you're more in touch with reality and don't treat baseball like a giant cliche.

The reality of projecting Baltimore for last place every year?  Reading Fangraphs has little to do with it.  Swallowing every bit of it hook, line, and sinker, perhaps, but not merely reading it.  There are plenty of readers who try to separate the wheat from the chaff in what they read.  And, believe it or not, there are plenty of readers who do not somehow think they are more intelligent than people that don't read Fangraphs.  Arrogance is optional.

[Ripken]

I'm honestly not sure what the highly optimistic folks are looking at.

[Frobby]

Fangraphs has a chart up showing the relative optimism of all 30 fan bases.   O's rank 16th.    Jeff Sullivan came up with an index weighting Steamer projected standings and Keith Law's farm system rankings, and finds that O's fans are more optimistic than that index indicates, explaining that our fans are "used to overachieving."  http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/here-are-all-30-organizational-ratings/

[Spy Fox]

26 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Fangraphs has a chart up showing the relative optimism of all 30 fan bases.   O's rank 16th.    Jeff Sullivan came up with an index weighting Steamer projected standings and Keith Law's farm system rankings, and finds that O's fans are more optimistic than that index indicates, explaining that our fans are "used to overachieving."  http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/here-are-all-30-organizational-ratings/

Can't argue with that. When the team has significantly overachieved five years in a row it's natural for fans, most of whom are going to be looking for the positive side, to be more positive than the projections, which don't care at all about trends of overachieving. 

I'm a pretty pro-projections guy in general. I love stats and I think the computers and mathematicians can indeed pick up on a lot of things the fans don't see. But I still expect us to beat the projections again and I think many of the Fangraphs writers are too quick to cast off the idea that our overachieving--or the overachieving and underachieving of any other team, for that matter-- is the result of missing factors in the formulas. 

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, Spy Fox said:

Can't argue with that. When the team has significantly overachieved five years in a row it's natural for fans, most of whom are going to be looking for the positive side, to be more positive than the projections, which don't care at all about trends of overachieving. 

I'm a pretty pro-projections guy in general. I love stats and I think the computers and mathematicians can indeed pick up on a lot of things the fans don't see. But I still expect us to beat the projections again and I think many of the Fangraphs writers are too quick to cast off the idea that our overachieving--or the overachieving and underachieving of any other team, for that matter-- is the result of missing factors in the formulas. 

My base inclination is to think that the model Fangraph's uses overly weights strikeouts.  I read a year or so ago that the number of starts where a pitcher has a high K/low BB start yet still gives up a substantial number of runs has increased sharply recently. 

[waroriole]

5 hours ago, Ripken said:

I'm honestly not sure what the highly optimistic folks are looking at.

I'm a 3, with 4 upside. The next two years should be enjoyable. I won't chicken little about 2019 until late next year. Just enjoy it while you can. 

[Frobby]

Just now, waroriole said:

I'm a 3, with 4 upside. The next two years should be enjoyable. I won't chicken little about 2019 until late next year. Just enjoy it while you can. 

If Gausman and Bundy come up big in 2017, we may start feeling that the window could stay open a bit longer than we thought.    

[waroriole]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

If Gausman and Bundy come up big in 2017, we may start feeling that the window could stay open a bit longer than we thought.    

Depends on what they do with Manny. Sign him or trade him, and I agree the window could stay open longer. If he walks for a pick, I'm a 2. 

[BohKnowsBmore]

17 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

 

I agree with Spy Fox that the Oriole fans that also read Fangraphs are more likely to be pessimistic and that is because they are more likely to see that cliff.

Eh.  I think you could be correct, but I disagree with the underlying implication behind the statement that said pessimism is somewhat rooted in greater knowledge/understanding.  If you listen to The Fan or any other such outlet, then you must be aware that there is no shortage of pessimism rooted in ignorance or terrible opinions.

If that's not what you mean to imply, my apologies, but that's how I read it.  I think pessimism and optimism can exist on either side of the spectrum, other than in extreme circumstances where one is completely unwarranted.

[Frobby]

37 minutes ago, BohKnowsBmore said:

Eh.  I think you could be correct, but I disagree with the underlying implication behind the statement that said pessimism is somewhat rooted in greater knowledge/understanding.  If you listen to The Fan or any other such outlet, then you must be aware that there is no shortage of pessimism rooted in ignorance or terrible opinions.

If that's not what you mean to imply, my apologies, but that's how I read it.  I think pessimism and optimism can exist on either side of the spectrum, other than in extreme circumstances where one is completely unwarranted.

Would you guess that the average fangraphs reader spends more time thinking about his baseball team than the average fan?    I probably would.    Would you guess that the average fangraphs reader probably knows more about his team's farm system than the average fan?    I'd guess yes again.    I think the fans who are most likely to be optimistic about the Orioles are the ones who just know that we've been winning the last five years and don't really pay attention to things like expiring contracts and the farm system.    Leave the sabermetrics out of it.