Is now a good time to extend Gausman?

[pastorfan]

1 hour ago, wildcard said:

It's unOriole.   Can't see the O's doing it. When was the last time the O's even went 5 years with a pitcher?  Erickson?

Exactly, they won't do it. Good move not resigning Mussina and we never looked back!

[wildcard]

16 minutes ago, pastorfan said:

Exactly, they won't do it. Good move not resigning Mussina and we never looked back!

Tillman is the test.

[Can_of_corn]

46 minutes ago, pastorfan said:

Exactly, they won't do it. Good move not resigning Mussina and we never looked back!

Just think how great things would have been if they had extended Bedard instead of trading him!

[Diehard_O's_Fan]

The Orioles better not go to arbitration with Kevin. Why would you tear apart one of your best young pitchers in order to save a few bucks. It makes absolutely no sense. The Orioles can't be that poor or that stupid one or the other.

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, Diehard_O's_Fan said:

The Orioles better not go to arbitration with Kevin. Why would you tear apart one of your best young pitchers in order to save a few bucks. It makes absolutely no sense. The Orioles can't be that poor or that stupid one or the other.

What do you consider a "few bucks"?

[Frobby]

23 minutes ago, Diehard_O's_Fan said:

The Orioles better not go to arbitration with Kevin. Why would you tear apart one of your best young pitchers in order to save a few bucks. It makes absolutely no sense. The Orioles can't be that poor or that stupid one or the other.

They don't really need to tear him apart.    I'm sure he'll live.   

[pastorfan]

53 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Just think how great things would have been if they had extended Bedard instead of trading him!

Yes, you are right and I am wrong about Mussina--we made the right move not resigning him. Me, well, I kinda think that Mussina was better than Bedard so I'm not sure what the comparison is here.

[Can_of_corn]

18 minutes ago, pastorfan said:

Yes, you are right and I am wrong about Mussina--we made the right move not resigning him. Me, well, I kinda think that Mussina was better than Bedard so I'm not sure what the comparison is here.

Funny how I didn't actually say that but you responded as if I had.

Haha

 

As for Bedard, first off I'm not at all sure Gausman is as good as Bedard but I'm positive Gausman's not as good as Mussina.

 

The point was, just going forward and extending everyone isn't even as good a strategy as letting everyone walk.  Situations vary and the decision making should reflect that.

[Diehard_O's_Fan]

No amount of money is worth risking upsetting one of your better pitchers. The Orioles are absolutely stupid if they take Kevin to arbitration. Pay the man and then tell him to pitch his heart out.

[Can_of_corn]

4 hours ago, Diehard_O's_Fan said:

No amount of money is worth risking upsetting one of your better pitchers. The Orioles are absolutely stupid if they take Kevin to arbitration. Pay the man and then tell him to pitch his heart out.

So if he had asked for 10M?

You can't just give them what they ask for.

[Roll Tide]

19 hours ago, Frobby said:

Kevin Gausman's arbitration hearing is scheduled for Monday.   He's at $3.55 mm, and the O's are at $3.15 mm.   Based on the comps I listed in another thread, I see this one as a toss-up.

Gausman is a Super-2, under team control the next four seasons.    Is it worth it to try to sign him to a long term deal now?   How about:

$3.35 mm

$5.5 mm

$9 mm

$11.5 mm

$13 mm

$15 mm (team option, $2 mm buyout)

$16 mm (team option, $2 mm buyout)

That's 5/$43.85 guaranteed, possibly going to 7/$72.85 if the options are exercised.   Gives Gausman good long-term security 4 years from FA, probably saves the O's $15-20 mm if Gausman stays healthy and pitches well.

Thoughts?

My thoughts are that DD or Angelos are not creative enough to control the cost of players that they want to keep. 

Hopefully their next GM will help preserve the resources of the organization 

[Roll Tide]

13 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

What do you consider a "few bucks"?

Corn .... 400,000 is a few bucks in baseball economics.

if they were creative they'd give him that 400k and offer a 3 year extension that controls he cost over an extended period.

Angelos or DD is not creative enough to take this approach 

He's not a free agent until 2021

 

so offer him

7 years

4 million

6 million

7.5 million

7.5 million

10million

12.5 million

15 million 

and 2 options for 16.5

 

 

 

 

 

[backwardsk]

I'd definitely want to extend Gausman.  If I was advising him, I would encourage him to go through arbitration year to year until he hits FA prior to his 30yo season.  There's just too much money out there in FA.  He's already earned close to $10M (including signing bonus), so he can take on the risk of a career ending injury.  That's what I'd do if I were him.

[Can_of_corn]

1 hour ago, Roll Tide said:

Corn .... 400,000 is a few bucks in baseball economics.

 

 

But it isn't 400K.

He's a super two and future arbitration awards are partially based on prior awards.

So first off there is the 400K, which, as part of his base pay in his arb 1 year he would also get in years 2-4.  Already we are up to 1.6M  There are also the merit raises he will get if he pitches well, those would also be impacted by the extra 400K in his arb 1 year.  I would say that giving Gausman 400K now could easily cost the O's in excess of 3M over the next three arbitration periods.

[Frobby]

2 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

But it isn't 400K.

He's a super two and future arbitration awards are partially based on prior awards.

So first off there is the 400K, which, as part of his base pay in his arb 1 year he would also get in years 2-4.  Already we are up to 1.6M  There are also the merit raises he will get if he pitches well, those would also be impacted by the extra 400K in his arb 1 year.  I would say that giving Gausman 400K now could easily cost the O's in excess of 3M over the next three arbitration periods.

I understand the logic of this, but I don't know if it's factually true.    I.e., I don't know if arbitrators focus mostly on (1) what the total salary is, (2) how big of a raise it is (in absolute dollars), or (3) what the percentage raise is.    I think it mostly matters if the player has a bad year (think Chris Davis after the 2014 season), because players always get a raise pretty much no matter what.