ESPN: When Does Stability Become Stagnation?

[Frobby]

Quote

 

Baltimore has finished .500 or better for five years running under Buck Showalter and has made the postseason three times, a run of success not seen by the Orioles since the late 1990s. The O's feature one of the five best players in the game in Manny Machado and a superstar closer in Zach Britton. Could anyone really blame GM Dan Duquette for playing it safe-ish?

Let's start with this: The Orioles' 89 wins last season were about five more than you would've expected based on their run differential. The most likely explanation for that, beyond good fortune, was the Britton-led bullpen, which still looks strong. But it's a bullpen with its year-to-year variability built in, and it will again be asked to prop a rotation that is at best middling and at worst terribly thin.

If you buy into run differential as a forward-spinning indicator, and the Orioles' 2016 true talent level was more like 84 wins, then you would have expected more aggressive moves this winter. It might be different if there were a number of ascending players for regular roles. If there are, I'm not seeing them. Nor is there likely to be an impact player coming up from the Baltimore system in the near-term.

The Orioles' timeline looks fixed. Machado and Britton are both scheduled to hit free agency after the 2018 season, as will Adam Jones, who by then might not be a viable defensive center fielder anyway. A lot could change the next couple years, particularly if Machado agrees to an extension, but Baltimore's window seems to be this year and next year. Yet that's not really how the Orioles behaved over the winter.

So the question remains: When does stability become stagnation?

 

http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/18625599/contenders-pretenders-state-mlb-mid-tier-teams

[backwardsk]

These players may not be ascending in a career arc, but you don't have to strain to see better seasons at all infield positions, catcher, and centerfield.  

[Can_of_corn]

Can't be very aggressive with where the payroll and farm system is at.

[webbrick2010]

I have a slightly different question.

When did a slightly above average team with a chance to snag a wild card spot become the criteria of success for this organization?

You can't look at what the Red Sox have done (even the most ardent OH optimists) and think that the O's can compete for a division title.

 

[weams]

6 minutes ago, webbrick2010 said:

I have a slightly different question.

You can't look at what the Red Sox have done (even the most ardent OH optimists) and think that the O's can compete for a division title.

 

And yet, the Rays were predicted to be the champs last off season.

[wildcard]

When a team stops making youth additions.  Which is not happening with the O's.  The O's left Wieters go this off season because their long term catching future is Sisco.  Castillo is a stop gap.    Within the last year Matusz was replaced by Hart.  Reimold is probably going to be replaced with Tavarez.    And then there is Mancini who will either make the team or be on the shuttle waiting for an injury.

In the recent past the O's left an aging Cruz go and has now replaced him with a young Trumbo.   Bundy was installed in the rotation last year.  Rickard was claimed and played a good part time role that could expand this year.  And over the past few years Gausman has played a bigger and bigger role.

I don't see stagnation with the O's.

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, wildcard said:

When a team stops making youth additions.  Which is not happening with the O's.  The O's left Wieters go this off season because their long term catching future is Sisco.  Castillo is a stop gap.    Within the last year Matusz was replaced by Hart.  Reimold is probably going to be replaced with Tavarez.    And then there is Mancini who will either make the team or be on the shuttle waiting for an injury.

In the recent past the O's left an aging Cruz go and has now replaced him with a young Trumbo.   Bundy was installed in the rotation last year.  Rickard was claimed and played a good part time role that could expand this year.  And over the past few years Gausman has played a bigger and bigger role.

I don't see stagnation with the O's.

Matusz and Reimold are players on the periphery.

If you look at the core you see older guys- Davis, Hardy, Jones, O'Day.  Givens could have replaced O'Day but Baltimore decided to keep them both. 

[backwardsk]

24 minutes ago, webbrick2010 said:

I have a slightly different question.

When did a slightly above average team with a chance to snag a wild card spot become the criteria of success for this organization?

You can't look at what the Red Sox have done (even the most ardent OH optimists) and think that the O's can compete for a division title.

 

How much money did you make on Cleveland winning the ALCS?

[Frobby]

21 minutes ago, webbrick2010 said:

I have a slightly different question.

When did a slightly above average team with a chance to snag a wild card spot become the criteria of success for this organization?

You can't look at what the Red Sox have done (even the most ardent OH optimists) and think that the O's can compete for a division title.

 

I am certainly not conceding the division title to the Red Sox before any games have been played.   They will and deserve to be strong favorites, but a lot happens in a baseball season that is unexpected.   Injuries, fluke good and bad seasons by individual players, teams doing well or poorly in one-run games, etc.    So, sure I think we could contend for the division title.    

[MDtransplant757]

3 minutes ago, backwardsk said:

How much money did you make on Cleveland winning the ALCS?

It will be interesting to see how they pan out this year. Royals may not have as good a pen due to Wade Davis leaving and Ventura's loss weakening the SP, but the Royals can still be very competitive. Can never count out Detroit, either. 

[Redskins Rick]

7 minutes ago, MDtransplant757 said:

It will be interesting to see how they pan out this year. Royals may not have as good a pen due to Wade Davis leaving and Ventura's loss weakening the SP, but the Royals can still be very competitive. Can never count out Detroit, either. 

The Royals picked up Hamel.

 

[MDtransplant757]

1 minute ago, Redskins Rick said:

The Royals picked up Hamel.

 

I think Ventura would be better than Hamell, but we shall see

[Redskins Rick]

Just now, MDtransplant757 said:

I think Ventura would be better than Hamell, but we shall see

Ventura was also starting to get himself in a bad way with his teammates over his desire to hit batters and start problems.

Go back and look at the film of Manny getting drilled. The Royals catcher did not even come close to trying to stop him and protect his pitcher.

 

[Ohfan67]

59 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Can't be very aggressive with where the payroll and farm system is at.

This. The O's are in a bind. They've spent a lot of money and they have too few minor leaguers. 

It seems like the O's are going to take their shot this year and maybe early part of next season. They will add some pieces during the season, even if it hurts, if they have a decent chance of doing something. By hurting I mean no minor leaguer would be safe it there was a chance to actually make noise in the postseason (e.g., Sisco and Sedlock). But I think if the team sputters then DD will trade to start the rebuild. Much more likely next year, but if the team performs poorly this year then they could start to sell significant players at the deadline. If the O's crashed and burned, then they could do a Yankee/Red Sox type "rebuild" with Britton, Brach, Machado, and a few of the spare parts. You could easily see five or six impact young players coming into the system. Keep the salary in the 10th to 12th highest sort of range and the O's could be competitive pretty quickly...if the young players developed. 

[wildcard]

2 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

Matusz and Reimold are players on the periphery.

If you look at the core you see older guys- Davis, Hardy, Jones, O'Day.  Givens could have replaced O'Day but Baltimore decided to keep them both. 

Matusz was in 58 games in 2015.   4th most on the team.  That is who Hart is replacing.

Reimold played in 104 games last year.  That is the spot that Tavarez may take.

Yes, every year the team gets 25 years older if the team stays with the same guys.  But the O's replace about 20% per year.   In most cases they try to get younger.  Smith is an exceptional this year.