Justin Smoak

[NoVaO]

I just finished an article on Justin Smoak for anybody interested:

Justin Smoak

My choice would probably be Smoak assuming none of the top guys slip. I'm intrigued by the possibility of having the switch hitting version of Mauer/Morneau as unlikely as it is.

[furryburres]

I just finished an article on Justin Smoak for anybody interested:

Justin Smoak

My choice would probably be Smoak assuming none of the top guys slip. I'm intrigued by the possibility of having the switch hitting version of Mauer/Morneau as unlikely as it is.

But we have so many 1B prospects, while virtually no SS prospects. I'd actually go for GBeck.

And this isn't just drafting for need, I happen to like him very much, both defensive and offensive.

[Greg Pappas]

I just finished an article on Justin Smoak for anybody interested:

Justin Smoak

My choice would probably be Smoak assuming none of the top guys slip. I'm intrigued by the possibility of having the switch hitting version of Mauer/Morneau as unlikely as it is.

Again, excellent report. I'm impressed sir.

We agree about Smoak, and he's on the short list of those I'll be pleased to get June 5th.

[Sports Guy]

But we have so many 1B prospects, while virtually no SS prospects. I'd actually go for GBeck.

And this isn't just drafting for need, I happen to like him very much, both defensive and offensive.

Not really.....We don't have anyone that is likely to really give us much in the majors.

Smoak is a better bet than G Beckham it seems and that is the way they should go IMO.

[allstar1579]

I just finished an article on Justin Smoak for anybody interested:

Justin Smoak

My choice would probably be Smoak assuming none of the top guys slip. I'm intrigued by the possibility of having the switch hitting version of Mauer/Morneau as unlikely as it is.

Thanks buddy, another great read.

[NoVaO]

But we have so many 1B prospects, while virtually no SS prospects. I'd actually go for GBeck.

And this isn't just drafting for need, I happen to like him very much, both defensive and offensive.

I'll be looking at Beckham later this week...personally I'm not sure what to make of him. His numbers are very impressive, but not a lot of people think he has all that much upside, or whether if he will absolutely stay at SS.

I would also disagree with us having a lot of 1b prospects...we have Snyder, and maybe Rowell will have to move to 1b, but after that there isn't much there.

Plus, I found this little tidbit:

College first basemen are the most valuable group of draft picks by an enormous margin. College first basemen selected in the first round have gone on to have Hall of Fame-caliber careers approximately one-third of the time.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=5152

[Lt Melmo]

I'll be looking at Beckham later this week...personally I'm not sure what to make of him. His numbers are very impressive, but not a lot of people think he has all that much upside, or whether if he will absolutely stay at SS.

I would also disagree with us having a lot of 1b prospects...we have Snyder, and maybe Rowell will have to move to 1b, but after that there isn't much there.

Plus, I found this little tidbit:

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=5152

Has there actually been any indication that Rowell will move to first? I thought he was playing third decently well as of late?

And Snyder is not the type of prospect you rely on. He's doing nothing but holding his own in A+ at an age where he should be raking. I think people forget that he's not 19 anymore.

The only worry I have for a logjam at first is with Tex. And you can't rely on that happening. After TBeckham and Pedro, Smoak is now my choice.

I know Smoak and Tex both have defensive ability that can't be sacrificed. But that's a problem we can deal with when we have to. I salivate over a lineup with Roberts, Smoak, Wieters, and Tex... I can't think of any teams that have had four switch hitters at once.

[RVAbird]

I'll be looking at Beckham later this week...personally I'm not sure what to make of him. His numbers are very impressive, but not a lot of people think he has all that much upside, or whether if he will absolutely stay at SS.

I would also disagree with us having a lot of 1b prospects...we have Snyder, and maybe Rowell will have to move to 1b, but after that there isn't much there.

Plus, I found this little tidbit:

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=5152

Thanks for all this info. The article was great and the BP draft rule regarding college 1B really puts things in perspective. Smoak is such an advanced bat as well as a plus defender, I think it would be foolish to pass him up for anyone other than Alvarez or T. Beckham.

[DennisTheOsFan]

Thanks for analyzing Smoak's swing for us, NovaO. The ball does indeed jump off his bat nicely. Like a lot of switch hitters, Smoak seems to have a better looking swing from the left side (why is that?). He appears to have excellent balance and not a lot of excessive movements in his swing.

I think Smoak with our 4th is a terrific choice (but if Tim Beckham or Pedro Alvarez slide, we have to take either of them ahead of Smoak).

How crazy would that be if Smoak and Wieters are mashing balls in Baltimore, from both sides of the plate? Yikes. And if we get lucky and reel in Teixeira, we'll have 3 switch hitting mashers in the middle of the lineup!!

[mikezpen]

I'd much rather they go for an impact power hitter than a shortstop who's good but not likely to be a power hitter.They can find other shortstops by trade or even sign one.

Neither Snyder or Rowell is that impressive right now-at A ball. There is no way I'd project either as the first baseman of the future.We have exactly ONE premier hitting prospect in the entire organization. If they think Smoak's the goods-or Alvarez if we're lucky enough, that's the way you have to go.Absolutely.

[Ruzious]

Smoak is easily the least sexy pick for the O's (among the Beckhams, Alvarez, and Posey), but he's probably the smartest choice.

[clarence]

It would be tough choosing a first baseman over the top pitcher in the draft if I were the one making the call.

Also, I don't think we need to be drafting a player like GBeck just because we have a need at shortstop. His ceiling isn't high enough to pass on a potential top of the rotation type pitcher or player with much higher hitting potenial like a Smoak or Hosmer. You don't take a league average type player with the number four pick in the draft unless you want to keep picking in that spot.

[Greg Pappas]

It would be tough choosing a first baseman over the top pitcher in the draft if I were the one making the call.

Also, I don't think we need to be drafting a player like GBeck just because we have a need at shortstop. His ceiling isn't high enough to pass on a potential top of the rotation type pitcher or player with much higher hitting potenial like a Smoak or Hosmer. You don't take a league average type player with the number four pick in the draft unless you want to keep picking in that spot.

I hear you, and pitching is ultra-important, but I wouldn't pass Smoak by because he's a 1B'man. First Basemen have done very well in the top half of the draft since 1987. In my draft research report covering the 1987-2002 drafts (allowing time for '03> to develop) here are the guys chosen in the top half of each draft. The number preceding the team that picked them was the draft slot in which they were selected.

1 Phillies> Pat Burrell

1 Marlins> Adrian Gonzalez

2 Twins> Travis Lee

6 Mariners> Marc Newfield

7 White Sox> Frank Thomas

7 Brewers> Prince Fielder

8 Rockies > Todd Helton

8 Pirates> J.J. Davis

10 Rangers> Carlos Pena

13 Angels> Casey Kotchman

14 Mariners> Tino Martinez

14 Expos> Cliff Floyd

14 Padres> Derrek Lee

The reds are/were clearly wasted choices, but the other 10 were good-great picks in general.

My point is that what position one plays is often undervalued, or overlooked a bit in regards to their true value to a team.

[markpolis]

It would be tough choosing a first baseman over the top pitcher in the draft if I were the one making the call.

Also, I don't think we need to be drafting a player like GBeck just because we have a need at shortstop. His ceiling isn't high enough to pass on a potential top of the rotation type pitcher or player with much higher hitting potenial like a Smoak or Hosmer. You don't take a league average type player with the number four pick in the draft unless you want to keep picking in that spot.

What if the Orioles project GBeck to be an above average hitting SS who can hit 20-25 HR's a year and play above average at SS? Perhaps they would rather have this type of player instead of someone who plays 1B, especially when this draft is so deep on firstbasemen.

GBeck plays a premium defensive position, whereas Smoak and Hosmer do not. McPhail himself stated he puts a premium on defense.

I'm not saying I want the Orioles to select GBeck. I would also prefer Smoak. I just don't think you can discount someone just because you think he projects lower than the other prospects.

[Frobby]

The idea of having two power-hitting switch-hitters in the middle of the lineup is awfully appealing. It would make it very tough for other teams to match up late in the game.