Rosenthal: Orioles Uequivocally Plan to be Buyers

[wildbillhiccup]

37 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I don't considering losing three first round picks Mehhh but ymmv.

I was looking more at the traded players than lost picks. The original post was about "pitchers we have traded away". Who knows if we would have used those draft picks to select pitchers. 

That said, the Ubaldo and Gallardo signings were the most egregious. We let Ubaldo parlay 1/3 of a season of excellent results into a big contract and literally signed Gallardo because there was no one else left. Both terrible moves.

[Can_of_corn]

8 minutes ago, wildbillhiccup said:

I was looking more at the traded players than lost picks. The original post was about "pitchers we have traded away". Who knows if we would have used those draft picks to select pitchers. 

That said, the Ubaldo and Gallardo signings were the most egregious. We let Ubaldo parlay 1/3 of a season of excellent results into a big contract and literally signed Gallardo because there was no one else left. Both terrible moves.

After he failed the physical.  How can you give up a first round pick for someone who can't pass your physical?  And yet the O's nix deals with draft picks over physicals with frightening regularity and for a lot less money.

[clapdiddy]

Just now, Can_of_corn said:

After he failed the physical.  How can you give up a first round pick for someone who can't pass your physical?  And yet the O's nix deals with draft picks over physicals with frightening regularity and for a lot less money.

Ugh.   When you put the truth out there, it makes me shake my head in disbelief.  

[wildbillhiccup]

38 minutes ago, Il BuonO said:

Incorrect. The Orioles could have done exactly what the Cubs did with Arrieta when they first got him. A guy with good stuff who was having trouble putting things together. I didn't like it.

Also, let's be clear, Arrieta put up 17.4 rWAR in three seasons and was a big part of their WS victory.

It's really easy to say this in hindsight, but Arrieta was just another pitcher who threw hard when the Orioles had him. And everything he threw was up in the zone. He was basically Bud Norris / Tommy Hunter. No one saw this 2015 breakout season coming.

Also, note that his walks and pitching metrics have been trending in the wrong direction since 2015. I'm not saying he's not a good pitcher, but I think when we look back at his career that season will be the outlier. 

[Frobby]

23 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

They did.

Webb.

 

Thanks, just looked up the Webb thing.   

The 2014 comp pick to Houston was used to select Derek Fisher, who was called up on June 14 and has a .992 OPS so far, after posting .945 in the PCL.  http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/f/fishede01.shtml

In 2015, the Dodgers used the O's competitive balance pick to select Josh Borz, who is a starting pitcher in AA at age 23 with a 4.36 ERA this year in 15 starts.    http://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=sborz-000jos 

In 2016, the Braves used the O's pick to select Brett Cumberland, a C/DH who had a .964 OPS in the Sally League in the first half, and got promoted to the Florida State League, where he has a .615 OPS in 15 games.  http://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=cumber000bre

Looks to me like Fisher is legit, the other two questionable.     Obviously, there's no saying who the O's would have selected if they'd kept those picks.

[wildbillhiccup]

2 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

After he failed the physical.  How can you give up a first round pick for someone who can't pass your physical?  And yet the O's nix deals with draft picks over physicals with frightening regularity and for a lot less money.

I'm on your side!. It made no sense. I think it as just a desperation move because there was no one left to sign. 

[Ohfan67]

26 minutes ago, wildbillhiccup said:

I'm on your side!. It made no sense. I think it as just a desperation move because there was no one left to sign. 

DD typically waits for the bargains at the end of the offseason. Sometimes you find a great deal when you are combing through the 75% off clearance rack (e.g., Nelson Cruz), but it's mostly junk that others didn't want for good reasons.

 

p.s. Not trying to imply that people are "junk", just making an analogy. 

[Can_of_corn]

24 minutes ago, wildbillhiccup said:

I'm on your side!. It made no sense. I think it as just a desperation move because there was no one left to sign. 

Didn't mean to imply otherwise.

I was adding information.

[Ohfan67]

Regardless of the back and forth about details, I think everyone can agree that the O's under DD have pursued a "win now" strategy with the potential for the wins to be costly in the future. It definitely looks like the O's and us fans are about to start paying the cost. Unfortunately the wins were not quite as abundant as most of us hoped. Now we'll see if the cost is as high as some have predicted. I hope not, but I think everyone on the board would agree that they are worried about the next few years. The arguments are about the relative costs and benefits and how much control did/does the general manager (or whatever the O's call him these days..Executive VP?) have and was DD just following his marching orders. Hopefully some prospects surprise everyone and make the near future a lot less painful than most of us fear it will be.

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, Il BuonO said:

Incorrect. The Orioles could have done exactly what the Cubs did with Arrieta when they first got him. A guy with good stuff who was having trouble putting things together. I didn't like it.

Also, let's be clear, Arrieta put up 17.4 rWAR in three seasons and was a big part of their WS victory.

Nothing is ever unanimous when it comes to trades the Orioles make.   That said, when we traded Arrieta his ERA had increased every year and was over 6.00, warranting another demotion to the minors.    The O's were in a strong contending position despite failures by not just Arrieta, but several other young starters.   Feldman was clearly much more likely to help in 2013 than Arrieta based on the known facts.    I've always faulted the pitching coaches and development staff (and maybe Buck) for failing to even remotely unlock his potential, much more than I faulted Duquette for trading him.   

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Nothing is ever unanimous when it comes to trades the Orioles make.   That said, when we traded Arrieta his ERA had increased every year and was over 6.00, warranting another demotion to the minors.    The O's were in a strong contending position despite failures by not just Arrieta, but several other young starters.   Feldman was clearly much more likely to help in 2013 than Arrieta based on the known facts.    I've always faulted the pitching coaches and development staff (and maybe Buck) for failing to even remotely unlock his potential, much more than I faulted Duquette for trading him.   

Not sniping you I swear.

Was anyone opposed to the Gallardo for Smith deal?  I honestly don't remember anyone having an issue with it but my memory might be clouded by how pleased I was at the deal.

[MDtransplant757]

13 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Not sniping you I swear.

Was anyone opposed to the Gallardo for Smith deal?  I honestly don't remember anyone having an issue with it but my memory might be clouded by how pleased I was at the deal.

No one was opposed to it. Gallardo is still hot garbage and in the Seattle pen, but he's not our problem anymore, so I don't care 

[Il BuonO]

18 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Nothing is ever unanimous when it comes to trades the Orioles make.   That said, when we traded Arrieta his ERA had increased every year and was over 6.00, warranting another demotion to the minors.    The O's were in a strong contending position despite failures by not just Arrieta, but several other young starters.   Feldman was clearly much more likely to help in 2013 than Arrieta based on the known facts.    I've always faulted the pitching coaches and development staff (and maybe Buck) for failing to even remotely unlock his potential, much more than I faulted Duquette for trading him.   

I agree with much of what you've said here except the part about ERA. That statistic is an incomplete measure of what was going on with Arrieta. I know Stotle for one agrees w me, but also from a pure scouting aspect his stuff was often regarded as plus. His peripheral numbers told another story. Also, if that's your yardstick then why since then have the Orioles hung onto various starting pitchers w horrible ERAs? Because ERA doesn't give a complete picture.

I disagreed with their handling of him and Buck was a part of that, but trading him was short-sighted. Feldman wasn't going to move the bar.

[wildbillhiccup]

1 minute ago, Il BuonO said:

I agree with much of what you've said here except the part about ERA. That statistic is an incomplete measure of what was going on with Arrieta. I know Stotle for one agrees w me, but also from a pure scouting aspect his stuff was often regarded as plus. His peripheral numbers told another story. Also, if that's your yardstick then why since then have the Orioles hung onto various starting pitchers w horrible ERAs? Because ERA doesn't give a complete picture.

I disagreed with their handling of him and Buck was a part of that, but trading him was short-sighted. Feldman wasn't going to move the bar.

Regardless of whether he was mentored or coached correctly (we'll never no) Arrieta was a hard thrower with no movement on his fastball when he pitched for us. My Bud Norris / Tommy Hunter comp. is spot on. 

[Il BuonO]

4 minutes ago, wildbillhiccup said:

Regardless of whether he was mentored or coached correctly (we'll never no) Arrieta was a hard thrower with no movement on his fastball when he pitched for us. My Bud Norris / Tommy Hunter comp. is spot on. 

I disagree, I've never heard of the comp for either. And who were you watching? Arrieta often had too much movement on his two seam FB w significant arm side run.

One of the complaints about him I actually agreed w was he threw too many different pitches, two FBs, CU, CH, Slider/cutter. It was thought that if he focused on maybe three total he'd have better results.