When do Buck and Dan finally say enough is enough?

[Frobby]

5 hours ago, paulcoates said:

If DD or PA thinks this team is going to finish 50-27 to get you the vaunted 90 win mark to have a chance as the wildcard team, they are seriously delusional

This isn't that complicated.     You do your spade work for trades over the next 2+ weeks, see if the team's position improves significantly, and if it doesn't, you do some selling.    However, it doesn't look like 90 wins is the likely wildcard cutoff.     It looks several games lower.    

[LookitsPuck]

6 minutes ago, Frobby said:

This isn't that complicated.     You do your spade work for trades over the next 2+ weeks, see if the team's position improves significantly, and if it doesn't, you do some selling.    However, it doesn't look like 90 wins is the likely wildcard cutoff.     It looks several games lower.    

You may be right re: number of wins for the WC.

AL records of WC teams since implementing 2 team WC:

• 2012: 93-69, 93-69
• 2013: 92-70, 92-71
• 2014: 89-73, 88-74
• 2015: 87-75, 86-76
• 2016: 89-73, 89-73

So let's go on the low end here. Let's say 86-76 squeaks in. That means the O's will need to go 46-31.  

Since going 15-8 in April, they've had a losing May (12-16), a losing June (12-16) and on their way to a losing July (1-5). Their starting pitching has also gotten worse every single month.

ERA by month (starting pitching):

• April: 4.26
• May: 5.16
• June: 7.18
• July: 8.36

[24fps]

2 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

A new Manager and GM.

And perhaps a new managing partner.  One can hope.

[Tx Oriole]

3 hours ago, LookitsPuck said:

It was actually irresponsible because they kept Socolovich. Which was idiotic at the time for a variety of reasons. IT was 2012, the O's were in a Wild Card chase with the Athletics...and what did Duquette do? Give him to the A's for nothing. Beyond stupid.

No one could have known how a player turns out. Hindsight is 20/20.

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, LookitsPuck said:

You may be right re: number of wins for the WC.

AL records of WC teams since implementing 2 team WC:

• 2012: 93-69, 93-69
• 2013: 92-70, 92-71
• 2014: 89-73, 88-74
• 2015: 87-75, 86-76
• 2016: 89-73, 89-73

So let's go on the low end here. Let's say 86-76 squeaks in. That means the O's will need to go 46-31.  

Since going 15-8 in April, they've had a losing May (12-16), a losing June (12-16) and on their way to a losing July (1-5). Their starting pitching has also gotten worse every single month.

ERA by month (starting pitching):

• April: 4.26
• May: 5.16
• June: 7.18
• July: 8.36

I don't think the starting pitching is likely to remain this bad.   

Right now, fangraphs pegs us with a 4.3% chance to make the playoffs.    BP says it's 2.1%.    Instinctively, that 2-4% range sounds about right to me.    If it's still in that ballpark (or worse) on, say, July 26, then it's sell time.     If it's back over 10%, then the decision gets a little harder.    I'll worry about it when we get there.   

[paulcoates]

2 hours ago, Frobby said:

I don't think the starting pitching is likely to remain this bad.   

Right now, fangraphs pegs us with a 4.3% chance to make the playoffs.    BP says it's 2.1%.    Instinctively, that 2-4% range sounds about right to me.    If it's still in that ballpark (or worse) on, say, July 26, then it's sell time.     If it's back over 10%, then the decision gets a little harder.    I'll worry about it when we get there.   

I can't imagine buying pieces for what looks to be a 1 in 33 chance of happening.  The Orioles need to concentrate on trading Machado and Britton for ML ready pitching.  

[LookitsPuck]

3 hours ago, Frobby said:

I don't think the starting pitching is likely to remain this bad.   

Right now, fangraphs pegs us with a 4.3% chance to make the playoffs.    BP says it's 2.1%.    Instinctively, that 2-4% range sounds about right to me.    If it's still in that ballpark (or worse) on, say, July 26, then it's sell time.     If it's back over 10%, then the decision gets a little harder.    I'll worry about it when we get there.   

It'll be lower by then. 

[Frobby]

34 minutes ago, LookitsPuck said:

It'll be lower by then. 

Probably.    That'll make the decision easier.     In fact, it looks a lot easier now than it was five days ago.    

[Chavez Ravine]

2 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Probably.    That'll make the decision easier.     In fact, it looks a lot easier now than it was five days ago.    

I am as Pollyanna an optimist as there is. I kept thinking Syd Thrift had a magical trade left in him. This team has been cooked for a few weeks.

[eddie83]

4 minutes ago, Chavez Ravine said:

I am as Pollyanna an optimist as there is. I kept thinking Syd Thrift had a magical trade left in him. This team has been cooked for a few weeks.

Wow, you are an optimist.