The problem with DD's "underperforming" logic

[TradeAngelos]

What if we completely ignore the last 5 years and look at the literal worst case scenario for every single player on the team, and then extrapolate that into something it isn't? What if we were just a 60 win team all along who just got lucky the past 900 games?? What if!

If you think about 10 key players on this team aren't underperforming due to injuries or whatever you might as well just pack it up and stop watching baseball. And if you think a half of a season exception is now the new rule on EVERY. SINGLE. player you are quite delusional. 

[LC_O's_87]

43 minutes ago, TradeAngelos said:

What if we completely ignore the last 5 years and look at the literal worst case scenario for every single player on the team, and then extrapolate that into something it isn't? What if we were just a 60 win team all along who just got lucky the past 900 games?? What if!

If you think about 10 key players on this team aren't underperforming due to injuries or whatever you might as well just pack it up and stop watching baseball. And if you think a half of a season exception is now the new rule on EVERY. SINGLE. player you are quite delusional. 

I think you have to look at guys like Jones and Hardy and Tillman and O'Day and say that, they are 5 years older and they don't produce at a level they once did.  The fall-off for some has been preciptious while for others it is gradual decline (look at AJ's slugging numbers since 2012).

Add in the different personnel, particularly in the starting rotation and the lack of a true breakout performance a la 2016 Trumbo or 2014 Cruz or 2014 Pearce on the team this year. 

Do all that and you start to realize this is mediocre team with little pitching and too few difference makers on offense.

The only regular who is significantly under-performing is Machado.  and the only starting pitcher who's done so is Gausman.  

[sportsfan8703]

We're a slow plodding, one dimensional offense that is built to win in the hitter friendly AL East parks, and we have 0 starting pitching.  That's why we are so terrible on the road.  The big ballparks kill the HR for us and then we have to play defense in OF's with more square footage.  

[Camden_yardbird]

He is right about Gausman, but that raises other questions.  There is a pretty clear narrative that Gausman isn't good until he is throwing his splitter and that he doesn't throw enough early in the year and that why we saw struggles early last year and success late and why we are likely to see that again.

That raises another question though.  If I can look at stats from last year and identify that he is best when he can throw that pitch, why did the organization not prep him to be able to throw that pitch for the start of the season.

As for other players, I agree, you can't always depend on a rebound to the mean if the mean is regressing.

[TouchemAll]

2 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

I think Duquette's hands are tied up by Ownership's desire to go for it despite the mountain of evidence that this team needs to rebuild. As Frobby pointed out, regardless of his true feelings, there is no upside to saying anything but the positive at this point. 

I agree

[FanSince88]

3 hours ago, Justinlstn said:

Waiting til the very end is just horrible. 

Yup, and it's exactly what they did in 1999 with Mussina -- even though we were 11 games UNDER 500 at the deadline, we still refused to sell Mussina!  And people wonder why there is so much animosity toward PA.  When you push for pointless, boneheaded moves like keeping an expiring asset on a team that's going nowhere, only the most deluded baseball fan would call that good ownership. I don't believe it is a coincidence that we continued losing for 12 more years after we got diddley squat for Mussina.  

[Aristotelian]

2 hours ago, LC_O's_87 said:

I think you have to look at guys like Jones and Hardy and Tillman and O'Day and say that, they are 5 years older and they don't produce at a level they once did.  The fall-off for some has been preciptious while for others it is gradual decline (look at AJ's slugging numbers since 2012).

Add in the different personnel, particularly in the starting rotation and the lack of a true breakout performance a la 2016 Trumbo or 2014 Cruz or 2014 Pearce on the team this year. 

Do all that and you start to realize this is mediocre team with little pitching and too few difference makers on offense.

The only regular who is significantly under-performing is Machado.  and the only starting pitcher who's done so is Gausman.  

Was pretty much agreeing with you up to that point. Tillman has been abysmal coming off one of his better years. Miley and Ubaldo weren't great before, but I would say both are at least significantly underperforming. Then there are Kim, Trumbo, Davis, Hardy. None of those were perfect players before but they are all doing worse than 2016. 

[El Gordo]

The one thing that plaugues all our SP is the lack of consistent FB command. If they had it they all would be doing pretty well.

[Three Run Homer]

The problem with Dan's underperforming logic is that it essentially boils down to the gambler's fallacy:  if I'm in the middle of an unlucky streak, then I'm due for a lucky streak.  Statistically this is nonsense:  if you're in the middle of an unlucky streak, then you are due for nothing but an average streak from here on out.  

So even if we accept that certain players are likely to revert to form in the 2nd half (Gausman and Machado, for instance), that doesn't mean that the team will overperform its potential in the 2nd half.  They are already 5 games under .500--if they perform as expected in the 2nd half, their record will improve, but not by enough to overcome the hole they have dug for themselves.  

[El Gordo]

I expect Davis, Manny, Gausman, Trumbo, and Tillman to perform better in the second half.

[FanSince88]

22 minutes ago, Three Run Homer said:

The problem with Dan's underperforming logic is that it essentially boils down to the gambler's fallacy:  if I'm in the middle of an unlucky streak, then I'm due for a lucky streak.  Statistically this is nonsense:  if you're in the middle of an unlucky streak, then you are due for nothing but an average streak from here on out.  

 

Excellent point.  And average, by the way, won't be nearly enough to get this team in the playoffs.

[LookitsPuck]

Duquette's days are numbered. For a variety of reasons:

1. He's already shown the want to leave the organization for a better position (Blue Jays)
2. There's been distaste between Buck and Dan when it comes to personnel decisions
3. Buck has a better standing in both Baltimore and the organization than Duquette
4. Duquette's contract is up after 2018
5. Duquette has shown little to minimal ability to walk and talk at the same time (see: make a contender and keep the farm system stocked)

All in all, Duquette has been with this organization for nearly 7 years and will be 8 years after his contract runs out. This is plenty of time to reshape an organization from a drafting and development standpoint. But we've seen no real growth outside of the major league club...and the growth for the major league club has regressed. Especially after 2014. Instead of building on a division winner...it was kept largely the same all the while letting guys like Nelson Cruz walk. Perhaps worse, there lacks any type of vision with this team. While some could point to letting Nelson Cruz walk as an indicator that Duquette didn't value 1 dimensional players that were aging...he went ahead and gave Mark Trumbo (who was not nearly as consistent offensively as Cruz) a multi-year, 8 digit contract.

My only worry in all of this is I don't trust Angelos to bring on a competent GM. Duquette was largely accidental. He was blackballed by the industry and nobody took him seriously. Duquette took the job largely because he had no other options. I wish the O's would be smart enough to bring on a David Stearns type. But I doubt it. And that sucks.

Perhaps worse is Buck's contract is also nearly up. And I don't think he'll want to be around for another rebuild. Buck is one of the best things to happen to Baltimore. He has his quirks and detriments (how many pitching coaches have we been through?)...but at the same time how  many of the personnel decisions are because of Buck? Duquette has never been good at handling salary negotiations...so I'm actually half inclined to believe that the revolving door of pitching coaches is as much Duquette's fault as Buck's. Probably more.

[LC_O's_87]

1 hour ago, Aristotelian said:

Was pretty much agreeing with you up to that point. Tillman has been abysmal coming off one of his better years. Miley and Ubaldo weren't great before, but I would say both are at least significantly underperforming. Then there are Kim, Trumbo, Davis, Hardy. None of those were perfect players before but they are all doing worse than 2016. 

Hardy -- declining player who is continuing to revert to poorer form

Trumbo - was 2016 overperforming and 2017 more akin to expected for him?

Davis - his 2016 is almost identical to his 2017.  sure it's off the pace of his 2 best seasons and not as bad as his worst (2013), but I'd say he's about baseline.

Kim -- no track record.  hard to know what his baseline is.

Tillman - I don't care what anyone says, he is damaged goods at this point.  He's hurt and has been since about August last year.

I will agree that Jimenez and Miley cannot do any worse at this point.  One would expect some better outings from them for the simple fact it's hard to keep doing so poorly.  

[LookitsPuck]

49 minutes ago, El Gordo said:

I expect Davis, Manny, Gausman, Trumbo, and Tillman to perform better in the second half.

Trumbo traditionally performs poorly in the 2nd half. 

Career numbers:

1st half: .263/.317/.497 - .814 OPS

2nd half: .237/.289/.428 - .717 OPS

I don't think Trumbo will turn it around. He's 31 and his numbers this year aren't too far off his career mark. This is probably where he is.

Chris Davis I worry about largely because he's had a lot of nagging injuries. And obliques aren't something that always heal in a month. It's possible it lingers. 

I actually think Manny will rebound. 

Tillman...I don't think he's healthy. Velocity down. Control off. Something is wrong. I hope it's just his mechanics. But right now his stuff is more like Alec Asher and less like Chris Tillman. And that's not a recipe for success.

Gausman I still like. His stuff is still there. His slider/curveball still sucks. But if he gets his mechanics situated with his fastball, he can at least get back to being respectful.

All that said, Ubaldo is still Ubaldo. Miley has regressed. And I don't think Bundy is going to turn it around unless he gets more time between starts. His workload is far too high. And the O's screwed his workload last year and overworked him. Once again showing a poor plan.

[webbrick2010]

52 minutes ago, El Gordo said:

I expect Davis, Manny, Gausman, Trumbo, and Tillman to perform better in the second half.

Trumbo is a notorious first half player... I look for his average to sink below .230... and continue his negative WAR season