Can Bleier become a starter?

[AZRon]

56 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

When the parks were bigger, the ball deader, and the batters less muscular, strikeouts weren't as important. I think the role Bleier is in is his best role. Saying that, as bad as Gausman, Ubaldo and Miley have been, I wouldn't be against him swapping with one and seeing how it goes. I still think his stuff is better one time through an order though.

All worthy points.

However, there are exceptions to no success with a low k/9 :
Ty Blach
Andrew Cashner
Ben Lively

[Frobby]

18 minutes ago, wildcard said:

The O's may be looking at trades, but I don't believe that are out on contention just yet.   They could still make a run.   The next 12 games before the end of the month will be interesting.

I spent the all-star break making the case that the O's arguably still had a chance to claw their way back in it.    Then Gausman, Miley and Ubaldo all laid eggs to begin the second half, and that really took the starch out of me.     It wasn't so much the fact that the team went 0-3, it was that their starting pitching just continues to put them in a deep hole way too often.    If you told me the starters would pitch to a sub-5.00 ERA the rest of the way, I'd give them a puncher's chance.    But despite the refreshing performances from Tillman and Bundy the last two days, I have pretty much lost my last shred of hope that this staff will pull itself together.     I'd love to be proven wrong, but I don't think management can make its decisions based on whatever shred of hope remains.    

[Tony-OH]

33 minutes ago, AZRon said:

All worthy points.

However, there are exceptions to no success with a low k/9 :
Ty Blach
Andrew Cashner
Ben Lively

There are exceptions to every rule of course. Looking at Bleier's stuff from a scouting standpoint, I don't think it would work long term more than once through a lineup.

All of Bleier's pitches garner a lot of groundballs, and he doesn't get a lot of swing and misses which means a lot of action for his infielders. Those are all good things right? My biggest issue with him becoming a starter though is only his changeup (80MPH) has any real difference in velocity off his sinker/fastball (89-90) and even his slider which is a hard 87MPH. This lack of differential in velocity as well as eye movement in the vertical plane within the strike zone suggests he's better one time through an order. 

[wildcard]

57 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I spent the all-star break making the case that the O's arguably still had a chance to claw their way back in it.    Then Gausman, Miley and Ubaldo all laid eggs to begin the second half, and that really took the starch out of me.     It wasn't so much the fact that the team went 0-3, it was that their starting pitching just continues to put them in a deep hole way too often.    If you told me the starters would pitch to a sub-5.00 ERA the rest of the way, I'd give them a puncher's chance.    But despite the refreshing performances from Tillman and Bundy the last two days, I have pretty much lost my last shred of hope that this staff will pull itself together.     I'd love to be proven wrong, but I don't think management can make its decisions based on whatever shred of hope remains.    

4 and a half out with 10 weeks to go is not out of it.  You are right about the starting pitching.  It has be perform better.   Tillman showed something we haven't seen this year.  Bundy showed well.  What i think Dan and Buck will be looking for in the next 12 days is can the other three show well or can they be replaced by Bleier and/or Asher.   The next 12 days will be important to that decision.

I think something significant that is happening is that as the reality of trade rumors sink in to the players they have started to express that don't want to be traded.  Maybe a sense of urgency is making things chance a bit.

[AZRon]

32 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

There are exceptions to every rule of course. Looking at Bleier's stuff from a scouting standpoint, I don't think it would work long term more than once through a lineup.

All of Bleier's pitches garner a lot of groundballs, and he doesn't get a lot of swing and misses which means a lot of action for his infielders. Those are all good things right? My biggest issue with him becoming a starter though is only his changeup (80MPH) has any real difference in velocity off his sinker/fastball (89-90) and even his slider which is a hard 87MPH. This lack of differential in velocity as well as eye movement in the vertical plane within the strike zone suggests he's better one time through an order. 

Thanks for the scouting perspective -- I appreciate it

[Ohfan67]

42 minutes ago, wildcard said:

4 and a half out with 10 weeks to go is not out of it.  You are right about the starting pitching.  It has be perform better.   Tillman showed something we haven't seen this year.  Bundy showed well.  What i think Dan and Buck will be looking for in the next 12 days is can the other three show well or can they be replaced by Bleier and/or Asher.   The next 12 days will be important to that decision.

I think something significant that is happening is that as the reality of trade rumors sink in to the players they have started to express that don't want to be traded.  Maybe a sense of urgency is making things chance a bit.

Nope, but history suggests that the Orioles will need to play at least .600 ball and probably .650 ball to get the wildcard. The wildcard (no wildcard pun intended) is still there for the taking for a team that gets hot. It just seems really unlikely that the O's are going to be that team, especially when some of the teams ahead of them are making trades and unleashing the reins. 

[Frobby]

53 minutes ago, wildcard said:

4 and a half out with 10 weeks to go is not out of it.  

From a mathematical standpoint, you're right.    But we can't ignore the fact that the team is 22-39 since May 9 and that the pitching has been atrocious.    All management can do is make judgments based on likelihoods, not act out of hope that a long shot will come in.   Even if we got a couple of good starts from Gausman, Miley and Ubaldo this week, that wouldn't give me much confidence.   They've all had occasional good games this year.   And while Asher or Bleier might be  an improvement, you can't realistically expect great things from either one of them.    

[Tx Oriole]

1 hour ago, wildcard said:

4 and a half out with 10 weeks to go is not out of it.  You are right about the starting pitching.  It has be perform better.   Tillman showed something we haven't seen this year.  Bundy showed well.  What i think Dan and Buck will be looking for in the next 12 days is can the other three show well or can they be replaced by Bleier and/or Asher.   The next 12 days will be important to that decision.

I think something significant that is happening is that as the reality of trade rumors sink in to the players they have started to express that don't want to be traded.  Maybe a sense of urgency is making things chance a bit.

But isn't this just false hope? This is what I worry about. That when or if they play better DD will buy instead of sell then the team will fall out of the race. Then we're are screwed all over again. It's hard. In our hearts we want the team to win but in our minds or at least in mine  I have to realize the O's are not a playoff team. There are other teams better equipped. I wish it weren't so. 

[Tony-OH]

1 hour ago, wildcard said:

4 and a half out with 10 weeks to go is not out of it.  You are right about the starting pitching.  It has be perform better.   Tillman showed something we haven't seen this year.  Bundy showed well.  What i think Dan and Buck will be looking for in the next 12 days is can the other three show well or can they be replaced by Bleier and/or Asher.   The next 12 days will be important to that decision.

I think something significant that is happening is that as the reality of trade rumors sink in to the players they have started to express that don't want to be traded.  Maybe a sense of urgency is making things chance a bit.

You are definitely full of orange and black sunshine and rainbows! It's never been about a lack of will or them needing a reality check, it's about a lack of talent on the major league team and minor league system that's the issue. I know it feels good when the team wins, but it should not change this team's course of action one bit. You forgot to mention there are six teams ahead of the O's despite that 4 games back thing.

The Yankees were theoretically in things last year when they traded their two big relievers and they restocked their farm system and major league team with young talent. The Orioles need to do the same and not be going for a one game wild card scenario with a flawed team and weak farm system.

[wildcard]

43 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

You are definitely full of orange and black sunshine and rainbows! It's never been about a lack of will or them needing a reality check, it's about a lack of talent on the major league team and minor league system that's the issue. I know it feels good when the team wins, but it should not change this team's course of action one bit. You forgot to mention there are six teams ahead of the O's despite that 4 games back thing.

The Yankees were theoretically in things last year when they traded their two big relievers an they restocked their farm system and major league team with young talent. The Orioles need to do the same and not be going for a one game wild car scenario with a flawed team and weak farm system.

Here is what I see.  The O's just added three All-Star players.   Davis, Britton and (Tillman who is just starting to pitch to his normal standard).  These three guys are not just players they are leaders.   Who knows what their addition means to the team?

Davis is two homer last night and normally hits them in bunches.  He can carry an offense when he is right.

Schoop is playing like the ALL-Star he is.

Manny is one of the 5 best players in baseball and Is hitting for a 988 OPS in July.   He maybe getting hot at the right time.

Tejada is playing a decent SS and has a .387 OBP in July since he is getting consistent playing time.

The combination of Joseph and Castillo are as productive as any catching combo in the AL.

Mancini is the 2nd best rookie in the AL this year.

Jones has been an All-Stari in the recent past and is capable of putting together a great run.

Smith is a decent RFer who is hitting well.

The combination of Britton, Brach and O'Day are three All-Stars.  Givens may be as good as any of them.

Tillman has the capability of being the leader of the rotation if he is healthy and his last outing looked like he was.

Bundy and Gausman are 1st round prospects that have the ability to be TOR pitchers when the are right.

Miley and Ubaldo are question marks who are  both capable of good runs or bad runs and Bleier and Asher are knocking on the rotation door. They don't need to be TOR the rotation pitchers.  Just solid 4s and 5s.

This team has not put it together this year but with Tillman. Davis and Britton playing well they could be the difference makers.

The O's have 12 games before the deadline.  Trade talks should be ready to put the trigger but the next 12 games could also see a turnaround.   I am hoping the team comes together but ready to make moves if they don't.

[Can_of_corn]

I thought O'Day was the leader of the bullpen and Jones was the overall team leader.  I thought Davis was the guy the leaders had to talk to when he got suspended.

[Tony-OH]

3 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Here is what I see.  The O's just added three All-Star players.   Davis, Britton and (Tillman who is just starting to pitch to his normal standard).  These three guys are not just players they are leaders.   Who knows what their addition means to the team?

Davis is two homer last night and normally hits them in bunches.  He can carry an offense when he is right.

Schoop is playing like the ALL-Star he is.

Manny is one of the 5 best players in baseball and Is hitting for a 988 OPS in July.   He maybe getting hot at the right time.

Tejada is playing a decent SS and has a .387 OBP in July since he is getting consistent playing time.

The combination of Joseph and Castillo are as productive as any catching combo in the AL.

Mancini is the 2nd best rookie in the AL this year.

Jones has been an All-Stari in the recent past and is capable of putting together a great run.

Smith is a decent RFer who is hitting well.

The combination of Britton, Brach and O'Day are three All-Stars.  Givens may be as good as any of them.

Tillman has the capability of being the leader of the rotation if he is healthy and his last outing looked like he was.

Bundy and Gausman are 1st round prospects that have the ability to be TOR pitchers when the are right.

Miley and Ubaldo are question marks who are  both capable of good runs or bad runs and Bleier and Asher are knock on the rotation door. They don't need to TOR the rotation pitcher.  Just solid 4s and 5s.

This team has not put it together this year but with Tillman. Davis and Britton playing well they could be the difference makers.

The O's have 12 games before the deadline.  Trade talks should be ready to put the trigger but the next12 games could also see a turnaround.   I am hoping the team comes together but ready to make moves if they don't.

Let me ask you since you are the epitome of the half isn't just half full, but getting ready to be full once again, do you think the Orioles have any chance of winning the AL East?

[wildcard]

3 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I thought O'Day was the leader of the bullpen and Jones was the overall team leader.  I thought Davis was the guy the leaders had to talk to when he got suspended.

Ancient history.   

[Can_of_corn]

4 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Ancient history.   

I've never seen anything indicating that Davis is much of a team leader.  Unless the O's use the size of a paycheck is a determining factor.

[wildcard]

Just now, Tony-OH said:

Let me ask you since you are the epitome of the half isn't just half full, but getting ready to be full once again, do you think the Orioles have any chance of winning the AL East?

8 out with 10 weeks to go in a very tough thing to accomplish.  Not impossible but unlikely.   I rather think of the O's playing like division champs over the rest of the season and going into the playoffs on a roll.