Orioles 2nd round pick - CF Xavier Avery (HS)

[OsandBohs11]

Does anyone know if he's going to switch positions like Hoes? Or is he going to stay at CF?

[Stotle]

Avery should stick at CF, though ultimately I think his arm plays best in left. I just finished my review and gave him a Prospect Grade of "B". His defensive game is way ahead of his offensive game, but I absolutely love his raw power potential and his mental make-up. He's a smart kid that loves to play -- a pretty great combination when you team it up with an above-average tool set.

There is a long way to go, but the ceiling is pretty high...

[Lucky Jim]

Good stuff.

Pretty classic material. And so many soundbites that could have been plucked off todays board.

And, of course, JTrea acting like he knows what he's talking about.

[McLovin]

It's WAY too early to start saying Avery has proven anyone wrong.

[Lucky Jim]

It's WAY too early to start saying Avery has proven anyone wrong.

Wrong? Of course not. This isn't about right or wrong, it's about being wildly off-base in your criticism, and speaking with authority when you have no idea what's actually going on.

People throw around phrases like "athlete" and "tools" and whathaveyou, and they've never seen the kid play. They just react to a "type". But foreclosing drafting a type (the toolsy athlete) is a sure way to limit your own success.

Those comments above are largely ridiculous.

[Sports Guy]

Talk to me when he is doing something at higher levels.

I will always hate the idea of the athlete first, baseball player second pick, especially in the second round.

You may get lucky every once in a while but its not a good bet.

He has 11 walks in almost 200 at bats....He is hitting for contact but he isn't showing that much power...Little power and poor plate discipline isn't a good combo as you move up the ladder.

Of course, he is also obviously very young and at a level where he is likely younger than most, so that is a huge plus for him.

But I think it is pretty amusing to bring up anything anyone has said about this kid as of now...200 at bats at Delmarva showing good contact but very little plate discipline, little power and a ton of K's isn't exactly a good way to make your argument look great.

He also only has a 65% success rate stealing bases.

http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/A/Xavier-Avery.shtml

[Frobby]

It's WAY too early to start saying Avery has proven anyone wrong.

He hasn't proven he's a major league player, but IMO he has easily proven that he was worthy of a second round pick.

I'm glad RZNJ resuscitated this thread, it's a good reminder that our draft day reactions are often wrong, and that when Jordan makes a surprise pick, there's usually a good reason and a solid evaluation behind it.

[Lucky Jim]

Talk to me when he is doing something at higher levels.

I will always hate the idea of the athlete first, baseball player second pick, especially in the second round.

You may get lucky every once in a while but its not a good bet.

He has 11 walks in almost 200 at bats....He is hitting for contact but he isn't showing that much power...Little power and poor plate discipline isn't a good combo as you move up the ladder.

Of course, he is also obviously very young and at a level where he is likely younger than most, so that is a huge plus for him.

But I think it is pretty amusing to bring up anything anyone has said about this kid as of now...200 at bats at Delmarva showing good contact but very little plate discipline, little power and a ton of K's isn't exactly a good way to make your argument look great.

He also only has a 65% success rate stealing bases.

http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/A/Xavier-Avery.shtml

He's five for his last five stealing bases. He's not walking a ton, but he's cut his strikeouts down a bunch, too.

I don't think anyone could've predicted he'd advance and adapt this quickly. That he has is a testament to Jordan - he obviously saw what he needed to see. Doesn't mean he's going to be a MLB regular, by any means. It just means that he was clearly worthy of where the Orioles drafted him.

[Sports Guy]

He's five for his last five stealing bases. He's not walking a ton, but he's cut his strikeouts down a bunch, too.

I don't think anyone could've predicted he'd advance and adapt this quickly. That he has is a testament to Jordan - he obviously saw what he needed to see. Doesn't mean he's going to be a MLB regular, by any means. It just means that he was clearly worthy of where the Orioles drafted him.

But was he more worthy than other players that were there at the time we drafted him?

That was my other big complaint...Hate the idea of athlete first/baseball player second guys and that there was other talent there that seemed to be rated higher.

As I said then, obviously the kid has upside or he wouldn't have been rated as someone who should go within the first few rounds....but does that mean he should have been our pick over other players?

[Sports Guy]

BTW, the player many wanted in the 2nd round put up an OPS of .601 in the GGL last year as a 20 year old and isn't even playing full season ball this year. That would be Tyler Ladendorf.

As for Avery, you obviously haven't been following closely. 18 strikeouts in 132 AB's in May and June combined. Let me do the math for you. That's one for every 7+ AB's. That's good!

No one said he was a finished product. He's been up and down with the stolen bases. Currently he's stolen 5 in a row.

There certainly seems to be some power potential there too.

He is quickly becoming a very good prospect. You have a fair amount of knowledge on the majors. A little on the minors, and like the vast majority of us, next to nothing on amateur talent. However, you speak as an authority on just about everything. Amazing!

Its a philosophy on what I would look for...and really, I could give a rat's patootie and what you think about it...Your opinion on any subject means nothing to me.

[Stotle]

I liked the pick, and I'll be interested to see what type of hitter Avery develops into. I thought there could be power in there, but his contact skills (at this low level, at least) have me thinking he could be groomed as a gap-to-gap guy that adds pressure with his speed.

[Hank Scorpio]

The kid is 19 at Low A ball.

I think that's one of those levels where some learning can actually take place, but I might be wrong.

[Sports Guy]

The other part of this discussion is do we feel the Orioles have the coaching and development system to turn Avery into a good player?

[McLovin]

He's a prospect, sure.

He's also still a project. A second round pick is a big deal. Look at Reimold. Reimold was a pick with a lot of tools and polish, and he mashed out of the gate. At the end of the day, right now, what are we looking at with Avery in terms of projecting? Joey Gathwright?

Look at what Carl Crawford and Adam Jones did at age 19. They were picked around the same spot. That's something to get worked up about.

There are still a lot of question marks with Avery.

[Lucky Jim]

But was he more worthy than other players that were there at the time we drafted him?

That was my other big complaint...Hate the idea of athlete first/baseball player second guys and that there was other talent there that seemed to be rated higher.

As I said then, obviously the kid has upside or he wouldn't have been rated as someone who should go within the first few rounds....but does that mean he should have been our pick over other players?

You've said yourself many times - I think - that foreclosing an avenue of acquiring talent is a mistake. This is true because it limits your ability to maximize talent - by definition.

It's the same thing here - just like saying you can't swear off FA completely, or whatever, you can't simply say that I don't want to draft "these types" of guys. You're going to lose out on very good talent. Satisficing is fine when you have limited information and have to make a generically probabilistic decision. But the O's aren't you or me - and Jordan is not you or me - the idea that he can't differentiate between "athletes" and pick out - more often than not - a successful one seems to me to be not only pessimistic, but also a bit narcissistic. Just because it's not a decision you're informed enough to make doesn't mean it's a decision that should be avoided altogether.

That's not meant as offense - because I think we all do the same thing. My response last year wasn't ecstasy at this draft pick. But I also trust that Jordan knows what he's looking for. I'm surprised by Avery's success, so this isn't a "told-you-so" at all. That said, there seem to be a lot of opinions generated by some kind of metapicture of the draft.

But if the best, most efficient, way to draft was simply to choose the guy who consensus said was the highest rated, it could be done by a computer program. There's a reason we have Jordan.

I also admit that you qualify your statements by acknowledging Jordan's better position. You're not really the best example of these overreactions - you have your opinions but they're tempered. The others, though...

And, just as a sidenote: how funny is it that Old Fan was in here clamoring about good and bad draft picks when he couldn't possibly have any idea what was going on?