Opinion: Orioles make a huge mistake trading International Signing money but not for the reason you think

[Luke-OH]

The Orioles have already made a number of moves to rid themselves of international spending pool money (To the Yankees for Wotherspoon, to the Dodgers for Wheeler, to the Mets for Ramos, to the Brewers for Myers, to the Phillies for Hellickson, to the Yankees for Ramirez, and to the Rangers for Perez).  They began as one of the 8 teams with the maximum of 5.75 million in pool money.  The new international rules allow a team to acquire up to 75% of their original total, which puts the maximum pool amount at a bit over 10 million. 

Now the argument over whether the O's should take advantage of the pool money and sign young Latin American talent has been beaten into the ground, both here and in other Orioles talk venues.  It's a moot point because Angelos has shown a complete unwillingness to pay big money for 16-17yo prospects, and whatever your opinion on that is, I think we can agree that it's not going to happen while PA is the owner.

So with that consideration, I've heard repeatedly, "might as well trade the spots and get something if we aren't going to spend them".  That's all well and good, but there is a huge reason we shouldn't have done that this year, and his name is Shohei Otani.

If you haven't heard of Shohei Otani, here is a scouting report.  There is serious talk that he will be signing with a MLB team this winter.  Well, so what you say, the O's won't ever pony up the money to sign a guy like that.  Well, wait a minute, he's subject to the new international signing rules so the maximum a team could give him is just over 10 million (the 5.75 pool + 75% extra acquired from other teams) and it's a hard cap so no going over.  Furthermore, only 5 teams could possibly offer him that amount, the Diamondbacks, the Orioles, the Indians, the Rockies, and the Pirates (the other 3 teams with the 5.75million pool have penalties from previous signing periods).  So we are one of 5 teams that had the best shot at signing a generational talent.  One other thing, Otani really wants to play both ways (he's one of the best hitters in NPB), and the Orioles are a team that has shown a willingness to try creative things. So offering him max money and a spot in the line-up (maybe DH) on his non pitching days would be the best offer he could receive. I feel like this was a huge opportunity to make a run at a truly great talent that the Orioles missed.
 

[sportsfan8703]

Not only don't we use it, but we help out the Yankees to sign more guys down there. For reliever types. Our 40 man roster is hilarious. We have no position players other than the guys on the 25 and DL. All of our pitchers are just relievers. 

[Frobby]

If you are right about how these rules apply to Otani, I'd guess he's going to get a lot less than $10 mm.    Have any of the other 4 teams with a max allotment actually acquired more international slots, while not spending any on other international players?    

This new system really seems like a rip-off for the international players who want to come here.    

[Cumberbundy]

So ...it's because we won't have the chance to sign a generational talent. As opposed to not signing an elite Latin American talent? Who cares where the guy is from. If we aren't going to do it, per you, it's a "moot point." I don't see your distinction. He's a well known prospect we could have signed but were never interested in. He's not new. He's the kind of guy we can't sign, who will be a top 10 prospect, because we don't participate. We wasted our money & made other systems better. We have the worst owner in sports. That's reality. We could do a lot of exciting things, but we lock our resources into big white oafs.

 

 

[Cumberbundy]

6 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Not only don't we use it, but we help out the Yankees to sign more guys down there. For reliever types. Our 40 man roster is hilarious. We have no position players other than the guys on the 25 and DL. All of our pitchers are just relievers. 

Precisely. 

[Luke-OH]

2 minutes ago, Cumberbundy said:

So ...it's because we won't have the chance to sign a generational talent. As opposed to not signing an elite Latin American talent? Who cares where the guy is from. If we aren't going to do it, per you, it's a "moot point." I don't see your distinction. He's a well known prospect we could have signed but were never interested in. He's not new. He's the kind of guy we can't sign, who will be a top 10 prospect, because we don't participate. We wasted our money & made other systems better. We have the worst owner in sports. That's reality. We could do a lot of exciting things, but we lock our resources into white big oafs.

 

 

The stated reason behind PA's lack of international spending is the riskiness of 16-17yo prospects and the buscone system.  Otani is neither, he is an MLB ready grown man, who has succeeded in the second best pro league in the world.

 

Edit: Otani is 23 years old

[Cumberbundy]

Just now, phillyOs119 said:

The stated reason behind PA's lack of international spending is the riskiness of 16-17yo prospects and the buscone system.  Otani is neither, he is an MLB ready grown man, who has succeeded in the second best pro league in the world.

That's not why we are frustrated though. We are frustrated by all of it. The limiting of avenues to bring in the talent to help us bring a championship to the best baseball city on the planet. 

[Luke-OH]

3 minutes ago, Frobby said:

If you are right about how these rules apply to Otani, I'd guess he's going to get a lot less than $10 mm.    Have any of the other 4 teams with a max allotment actually acquired more international slots, while not spending any on other international players?    

This new system really seems like a rip-off for the international players who want to come here.    

Yeah, definitely not a player friendly system.  No I don't think anyone else is going to save up and offer him the full amount, they value spending on young prospects too much to take that risk (if Otani doesn't come over, they miss out on the top Latin American players).  The Orioles on the other hand weren't going to spend on the top LA players anyways so they have much less to lose by hording International money for a run at Otani.

2 minutes ago, Cumberbundy said:

That's not why we are frustrated though. We are frustrated by all of it. The limiting of avenues to bring in the talent to help us bring a championship to the best baseball city on the planet. 

I agree that it is frustrating, but that point has been argued/complained about extensively by many here (including me) and I wasn't trying to argue PA's stance on young Latin American prospects any further.

[ArtVanDelay]

Will the team that signs Otani be able to immediately sign him to an extension? 

If so, the international cap wouldn't play a huge factor.  Any team could sign him under their cap and then give him an extension worth $200+MM. 

[Luke-OH]

Just now, ArtVanDelay said:

Will the team that signs Otani be able to immediately sign him to an extension? 

If so, the international cap wouldn't play a huge factor.  Any team could sign him under their cap and then give him an extension worth $200+MM. 

They couldn't agree to anything offical, the MLB has said they will be looking at it carefully to make sure teams cannot circumvent the hard cap.  Now after he plays a year, assuming he played well, the team would have the cover to sign him to a pricey extension.

[Can_of_corn]

22 minutes ago, Frobby said:

If you are right about how these rules apply to Otani, I'd guess he's going to get a lot less than $10 mm.    Have any of the other 4 teams with a max allotment actually acquired more international slots, while not spending any on other international players?    

This new system really seems like a rip-off for the international players who want to come here.    

Of course it is . It was designed to lower costs.

 

 

[spiritof66]

On 8/9/2017 at 11:43 AM, phillyOs119 said:

The stated reason behind PA's lack of international spending is the riskiness of 16-17yo prospects and the buscone system.  Otani is neither, he is an MLB ready grown man, who has succeeded in the second best pro league in the world.

 

Edit: Otani is 23 years old

The "too risky" explanation is, at this point, ridiculous. Sure there's risk in paying 16-year-olds, or guys who've succeeded in Japan, but if you want to see big-time risk take a look at the Davis and Trumbo contracts.

Just my speculation, but I think the reasons why the Orioles decided to avoid spending in the international markets are no longer relevant. The team's owner is not going to change this policy, or any other policy, in his last two or five or however many years of calling the shots. To do so would come too close to admitting he was wrong and everyone else in MLB was right. (The experience with KIm probably confirmed his conviction that it's the other way around.) He's never done that and never will. 

[wildcard]

On 8/9/2017 at 11:41 AM, Frobby said:

If you are right about how these rules apply to Otani, I'd guess he's going to get a lot less than $10 mm.    Have any of the other 4 teams with a max allotment actually acquired more international slots, while not spending any on other international players?    

This new system really seems like a rip-off for the international players who want to come here.    

Please ,pleaee, please.  Rip me off by signing me for 10m dollars. The kid in 21- 23 years old and if he stay healthy and is as good as advertised will make a ton of money.   I can't feel sorry of him.

[hoosiers]

I am very familiar with Otani - have him as a minor leaguer in both an AL and NL fantasy league - so I should get him on one of those teams regardless.

The signing bonus is only a portion of what Otani will make.  He is likely to get various other income streams including from endorsements and other. Further, Otani may step right into the 25 man roster and be available to a team Opening Day 2018.  What is preventing a team from offering him a 7-10 year deal right after signing him that covers his years under team control and several years after?  

We will see what happens, but everything I have read has Otani is going to a big market team - LAD, ChiCubs, NYY, Boston, Texas, etc.