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Mission: Impossible?

Frobby

By Frobby
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Frobby Hangout Grand Counsel

Frobby

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"Your mission -- should you decide to accept it -- is to go into the Bronx and win 3 of 4 games this weekend."

Impossible?    No, just highly improbable.    But I'd like our playoff chances much better if we could pull it off.

Miley v. Tanaka

Hellickson v.  Severino

Jimenez v. Sabathia

Bundy (?) v. Gray

I'm not going to overanalyze this.    Win tonight against Tanaka (4.82 ERA, got shelled in Texas last time out but overall has been pitching very well since late July), and go from there.   Score some runs, already!

 

 

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foxfield Hangout Grand Counsel

foxfield

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3 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

What chance of the playoffs? We have zero chance. None. Winning 3 of 4 would be great but we are playing for pride right now.

No we have about 1.1% chance.  That is significantly better than Zero.  And taking 3 or 4 in NY as the sweep in Boston recently, would perk the chances up more.  

 

 

 

But of course 1.1% IS NOT very close to being in either.

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Aristotelian Hangout Grand Counsel

Aristotelian

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5 minutes ago, foxfield said:

No we have about 1.1% chance.  That is significantly better than Zero.  And taking 3 or 4 in NY as the sweep in Boston recently, would perk the chances up more.  

 

 

 

But of course 1.1% IS NOT very close to being in either.

I disagree that 1.1% is significantly better than zero. 71.1% is not significantly better than 70%. For all intents and purposes, our chance of making the playoffs is zero. It's fine if Buck wants to keep playing Trumbo until we are mathematically eliminated but let's not pretend the playoffs are a serious possibility.

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foxfield Hangout Grand Counsel

foxfield

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On 9/13/2017 at 11:51 AM, TonySoprano said:

2017 isn't close to the "worst season."  It's not even the most disappointing of the last several years because that title would go to the 2015 .500 season which followed a team that went to the ALCS.   We went to a rally in late 2012, and the local TV interviewed my then 12 year old son.  He exclaimed how excited he was that the Orioles were playing winning baseball for the first time in his entire life.  1998-2011 was the worst.  From Dan's article...

 

Below are the dates during those 14 years when the Orioles clinched a losing record, and their last day at .500 or better.  In ten of those years, the Orioles played losing baseball from June 2nd until the end. 

YR

82L

0.500

1998

Sep-25

Sep-21

1999

Oct-01

Apr-07

2000

Sep-16

May-09

2001

Sep-03

May-27

2002

Sep-14

Aug-23

2003

Sep-15

May-18

2004

Oct-01

Jun-01

2005

Sep-22

Aug-17

2006

Sep-12

May-02

2007

Sep-11

May-31

2008

Sep-13

Jul-09

2009

Sep-08

Apr-23

2010

Aug-24

N/A

2011

Sep-03

May-26

 

6 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

I disagree that 1.1% is significantly better than zero. 71.1% is not significantly better than 70%. For all intents and purposes, our chance of making the playoffs is zero. It's fine if Buck wants to keep playing Trumbo until we are mathematically eliminated but let's not pretend the playoffs are a serious possibility.

So you generally right here...but statistically wrong.  The Orioles have a most difficult path to reach the playoffs.  But I said the chances are significantly better than zero and that is correct.  If we could run this season through 100 or 1000 or 10000 variations the O's would make it somewhere but not often and really almost never.  But with zero chance, we could run millions and millions and millions of variations and not once...ever could the Orioles make the playoffs.

That is why I included Tony Soprano's post from another thread.  10 times in the dark years of 14 straight losing seasons, the remote chance of meaningful baseball was gone by June.  June.

I will not quibble over the statistical improbability of a 1.1% chance, but the difference between 1.1% and Zero is much bigger than you recognize.  

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Frobby Hangout Grand Counsel

Frobby

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2 minutes ago, foxfield said:

 

So you generally right here...but statistically wrong.  The Orioles have a most difficult path to reach the playoffs.  But I said the chances are significantly better than zero and that is correct.  If we could run this season through 100 or 1000 or 10000 variations the O's would make it somewhere but not often and really almost never.  But with zero chance, we could run millions and millions and millions of variations and not once...ever could the Orioles make the playoffs.

That is why I included Tony Soprano's post from another thread.  10 times in the dark years of 14 straight losing seasons, the remote chance of meaningful baseball was gone by June.  June.

I will not quibble over the statistical improbability of a 1.1% chance, but the difference between 1.1% and Zero is much bigger than you recognize.  

Well, for example, Toronto is not mathematically eliminated (they theoretically could still win 84 games), but BP wrote their playoff odds down to zero about 2 weeks ago, because teams just don't ever come from as far back as they were with that few games to play.    Whereas, the O's are at 1.1% because once every hundred times  or so, teams do rally from as far back as we are, even with several teams in between.    Obviously nobody expects that to happen, but I'm not going to give up the last shred of hope until I have to.   Whether our odds are "significantly" better than zero is a semantic game I don't want to get into.    The odds are very long, we all know it.    We'll see if they get better or worse from here.  I'm rooting for better.   

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bobmc Hangout Grand Counsel

bobmc

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32 minutes ago, phillyOs119 said:

Isn't Ynoa pitching tomorrow?

Thurs - Wade

Fri - Gabriel

Sat. Hell Boy

Sun - TBD*

* Ubaldo Jiménez, Chris Tillman and Mike Wright are the other options for Sunday unless Showalter decides to experiment. Showalter considered Wright before choosing Ynoa on Saturday, and the right-hander surrendered three runs and seven hits in 4 2/3 innings in a 4-2 loss to the Indians.

"Outfielder Austin Hays could crack the lineup for the final two games, if not sooner."

http://www.masnsports.com/school-of-roch/2017/09/ynoa-included-in-rotation-for-four-game-series-in-bronx.html

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