Are we a bad team masquerading as a mediocre one?

[OFFNY]

12 minutes ago, Ohfan67 said:

 

I don't believe anything about what another manager could do. I am astounded at how quickly you removed all responsibility of team performance from Buck. The offense underperformed. The defense underperformed. The pitching underperformed. Is this Buck's third or fourth pitching coach? I honestly can't remember. 

 

o

 

Well if you don't believe anything that another manager could do with this team, then your critique of Showalter cannot be all that scathing. If there isn't anyone that could have done better than he has with this team and its starting rotation, then I believe that that would attest to my original comment.

Some Oriole fans want Showalter and Duquette fired. Fine. I have yet to see their better ideas for who should replace them and do a better job than what has been done since the 2012 season.

 

o

[Ohfan67]

Just now, OFFNY said:

o

 

Well if you don't believe anything that another manager could do with this team, then your criticism of Showalter cannot be all that scathing.

Some Oriole fans want Showalter and Duquette fired. Fine. I have yet to see their better ideas for who should replace them and do a better job than what has been done since the 2012 season.

 

o

If Showalter helped make the awful roster decisions, then he definitely deserves to lose his job. He definitely deserves a big heap of criticism for the revolving door at pitching coach, especially as the success of the team has depended on the development of young pitchers for several years. If I was the owner and I had given free range to the GM and the manager, then I would definitely can them. The Orioles fielded a top ten payroll salary team and have nothing to show for it. But this is Peter Angelos' Orioles. 

[Ohfan67]

5 minutes ago, OFFNY said:

o

 

Well if you don't believe anything that another manager could do with this team, then your critique of Showalter cannot be all that scathing. If there isn't anyone that could have done better than he has with this team and its starting rotation, then I believe that that would attest to my original comment.

Some Oriole fans want Showalter and Duquette fired. Fine. I have yet to see their better ideas for who should replace them and do a better job than what has been done since the 2012 season.

 

o

Just to be clear, I'm not saying that another manager could have done better or worse, I am criticizing opinions of you and/or others who seem to think that Buck bares no responsibility for the team's performance and roster. He obviously does for the performance and almost certainly has some and maybe even a lot of responsibility for the roster. But if Buck did push for the roster as it was constructed the past few years, the long term signings of mediocre pitchers and hitters, then I would definitely say that other managers could have done a better job. There's also circumstantial evidence that the revolving door of pitching coaches has had a negative effect on the pitching staff. He's either hiring the wrong guys or hiring the right guys but there's something about Buck or other elements of the organization (e.g., Brady) that is causing some "chaos" with that position. It's the Orioles so that makes it difficult to fully evaluate Buck or DD. 

[OFFNY]

15 minutes ago, Ohfan67 said:

 

If Showalter helped make the awful roster decisions, then he definitely deserves to lose his job. He definitely deserves a big heap of criticism for the revolving door at pitching coach, especially as the success of the team has depended on the development of young pitchers for several years. If I was the owner and I had given free range to the GM and the manager, then I would definitely can them. The Orioles fielded a top ten payroll salary team and have nothing to show for it. But this is Peter Angelos' Orioles. 

 

o

 

The Orioles had a bad season, as they did in 2015. And these days, a bad season is going .500. This is the first season in which they are in the Top 10 in payroll (although they were also 11th last season.) They are not a perennial cash cow/high market team like the Yankees and the Red Sox. This is not a team that has continually performed poorly year in and year out, while maintaining a high payroll. This is a team that has had 3 good seasons, 1 pretty good season, and 2 average/mediocre seasons from 2012-2017 whose collective payroll in that span is not Top 10, or even Top 12.

 

And while I believe that Showalter has some input into the roster construction and/or who gets called up on the Norfolk-Baltimore shuttle,  I don't believe that he and Duquette have been given free range by Peter Angelos.

 

o

[Frobby]

7 minutes ago, Ohfan67 said:

If Showalter helped make the awful roster decisions, then he definitely deserves to lose his job. He definitely deserves a big heap of criticism for the revolving door at pitching coach, especially as the success of the team has depended on the development of young pitchers for several years. If I was the owner and I had given free range to the GM and the manager, then I would definitely can them. The Orioles fielded a top ten payroll salary team and have nothing to show for it. But this is Peter Angelos' Orioles. 

I have some mixed feelings here.   I can't blame Buck when our highest paid hitter suddenly has trouble getting the bat off his shoulder, or the pitcher with the biggest contract simply doesn't live up to it.   But, I do partially blame Buck when he leaves a pitcher in the rotation when he's been consistently awful for months.    I say "partially" because the alternatives in our MiL system weren't good, either.    Then there's the unknown element of how much say Buck has had in some of the bad personnel decisions.    All we can do there is speculate; nobody really knows.

[24fps]

It looks to me like a mediocre team running on fumes at this point.  One that's had a reality check and enough time for it to sink in.  

It would be nice if management and ownership had something similar happen in the coming months.  There's still the makings of a good team here.

[Ohfan67]

15 minutes ago, OFFNY said:

o

 

The Orioles had a bad season, as they did in 2015. And these days, a bad season is going .500. This is the first season in which they are in the Top 10 in payroll (although they were also 11th last season.) They are not a perennial cash cow/high market team like the Yankees and the Red Sox. This is not a team that has continually performed poorly year in and year out, while maintaining a high payroll. This is a team that has had 3 good seasons, 1 pretty good season, and 2 average/mediocre seasons from 2012-2017 whose collective payroll in that span is not Top 10, or even Top 12.

 

And while I believe that Showalter has some input into the roster construction and/or who gets called up on the Norfolk-Baltimore shuttle,  I don't believe that he and Duquette have been given free range by Peter Angelos.

 

o

I'm listening. Angelos makes it hard to fully evaluate, but I think Buck's performance deserves to be critically evaluated and not through orange colored glasses. The Orioles have spent big for several years, they have had Manny, Jones and others, the have changed coaches, etc. I'm not trying to be negative or disrespectful, I just strongly believe that Buck's performance deserves a critical evaluation...and I think he certainly doesn't come out smelling like roses once we remove affection for Buck and our memory of how horrific the Orioles were. 

[Three Run Homer]

3 hours ago, Frobby said:

I go back and forth on this topic.    We are 72-75, and by Pythagorean record, should be more like 69-78.    That's pretty bad.

Fangraphs ran a piece this morning where they broke down the fWAR totals for every team into top 5 players, next 5, and then 11-25.    That analysis had our top 5 in 21st place out of 30 teams, the next five in 24th place, the 11-25 guys in 25th place, and overall total in 27th place -- fourth from the bottom!    http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/breaking-down-where-the-wins-have-come-from/

It still feels like it all comes down to pitching, but by fWAR, our position players are 20th out of 30. The pitchers are 25th, very poor but perhaps not as epically bad as the team ERA suggests.   That's because the team's defense ranks 26th among the 30 teams, at -26.2 runs.   The outfield defense is at -30.3, which believe it or not, is a big improvement over last year, when it was -55.5.   And by the way, the offense is only so-so, 16th out of 30.    All in all, not a formula for a winning team.    

Frobby, do you think that Fangraphs' defensive numbers are reasonable based on the eyeball test?  Are Trey Mancini and Adam Jones really that bad in the outfield, for instance?  

Going forward, the O's do have the opportunity to improve their outfield defense from within without sacrificing much offense, if they can find a way to trade Mark Trumbo for a bad contract so that Mancini can move to DH.  If Adam's outfield defense has really deteriorated that much, the O's may need to make a tough call when his contract expires and hope that Cedric Mullins can continue to develop.  

[Luke-OH]

3 minutes ago, Three Run Homer said:

Frobby, do you think that Fangraphs' defensive numbers are reasonable based on the eyeball test?  Are Trey Mancini and Adam Jones really that bad in the outfield, for instance?  

Going forward, the O's do have the opportunity to improve their outfield defense from within without sacrificing much offense, if they can find a way to trade Mark Trumbo for a bad contract so that Mancini can move to DH.  If Adam's outfield defense has really deteriorated that much, the O's may need to make a tough call when his contract expires and hope that Cedric Mullins can continue to develop.  

I was looking at the Statcast catch probability data, and Adam Jones ranks even worse by those metrics than by Fangraph's data (probably because arm isn't taken into account).

[OFFNY]

46 minutes ago, Ohfan67 said:

 

I'm listening. Angelos makes it hard to fully evaluate, but I think Buck's performance deserves to be critically evaluated and not through orange colored glasses. The Orioles have spent big for several years,they have had Manny, Jones and others, the have changed coaches, etc. I'm not trying to be negative or disrespectful, I just strongly believe that Buck's performance deserves a critical evaluation...and I think he certainly doesn't come out smelling like roses once we remove affection for Buck and our memory of how horrific the Orioles were. 

 

o

 

OK, but "spending big" is relative.

The Orioles gave Chris Davis what we as Oriole fans consider an outlandish amount of money, at $21 Million per year for 7 years. 

In 2009 the Yankees signed Mark Teixeira to a long-term contract for $23 Million a year, C.C. Sabathia to a long-term contract for $23.5 Million a year, and A.J. Burnett to a long-term contract for $16.5 Million per year. And they were already paying Alex Rodriguez $30 Million per year ........ and this was in 2009, almost a decade ago. )  

 

The Orioles, on the other hand, were considered to be splurging when at that same time they extended Nick Markakis for $11 million per year for 6 years, and Brian Roberts for $10 Million per year for 4 years. 3 years later in 2012, they again did what we Oriole fans consider a bank-breaking deal by signing Adam Jones to a 6-year extension at $15 Million per year.

 

So while the Orioles have indeed moved their payroll up a significant notch over the last 2 years (2016 and 2017), they aren't anywhere near the same overall neighborhood as are the true big spenders, the teams that are consistently in the Top-5 in payroll year-in and year-out. 

 

I believe that Angelos did indeed give both Andy MacPhail and Dan Duquette a considerably freer hand than he did the Orioles' other previous GM's under his ownership since 1993 ........ but somebody like Brian Cashman is in (what I believe to be) a select club of GM's that truly has free range, particularly since the aging and eventual death of the team's previous control-freak owner, George Steinbrenner.

 

o

[Frobby]

40 minutes ago, Three Run Homer said:

Frobby, do you think that Fangraphs' defensive numbers are reasonable based on the eyeball test?  Are Trey Mancini and Adam Jones really that bad in the outfield, for instance?  

Going forward, the O's do have the opportunity to improve their outfield defense from within without sacrificing much offense, if they can find a way to trade Mark Trumbo for a bad contract so that Mancini can move to DH.  If Adam's outfield defense has really deteriorated that much, the O's may need to make a tough call when his contract expires and hope that Cedric Mullins can continue to develop.  

 

35 minutes ago, phillyOs119 said:

I was looking at the Statcast catch probability data, and Adam Jones ranks even worse by those metrics than by Fangraph's data (probably because arm isn't taken into account).

BB-ref's Rtot and Rdrs are kinder to Jones and Mancini than UZR is, but they are still substantially negative.    I think with both, the issue is lack of speed.    Jones looks athletic and fluid out there, but he simply doesn't cover as much ground as he used to.    Also, the team has played him deeper this year and he sometimes misjudges balls hit in front of him. Mancini has made a decent transition, but again, the issue is he's just not that fast.    Frankly, for a guy who'd never played a professional inning in the OF, I think he's acquitted himself well, and his numbers may improve a bit next year with a year's experience under his belt.   

[maybenxtyr]

I was looking at the runs per game totals because I feel like the offense has had a lot of games where they put up inflated numbers, which kind of skews the offensive ranking. They have had 41 games where they have scored 7+ runs. That's pretty good. They have had 46 games where they have scored 2 or less. So, I think I was wrong as the higher scoring games and lower scoring games kind of balance out. They have been shut out a total 8 times...I think this is just a bad team.

I'm not sure that bringing in w mediocre starters will greatly improve the chances next year either. Having Buck and DD's contracts end after next season has really put this team in a bind. I'm starting to come around to the idea that they have to be settled before any other moves can happen.

[ArtVanDelay]

2 hours ago, Frobby said:

I wouldn't put too much stock in that, since fWAR is heavily based on FIP, which measures what they think the results should have been rather than what they were.    In terms of the real world:

6th in ERA

Tied for 3rd in wins

3rd fewest losses

Tied for 2nd in winning percentage

5th in win probability added

14th in save percentage (but we won 8 of the 16 games where a save was blown)

Overall, the bullpen has been well above average, though not as dominant as last year.

 

 

I agree that we're better than the 18th best bullpen but the numbers you posted are misleading too.  W-L is completely meaningless.   They don't have an opportunity to get losses because the starter gets bombed half the time and the game is over before we even get to the bullpen.   FIP is a much better indicator of true talent than ERA.  WPA is definitely a good stat when looking at bullpens.  I'd say our bullpen is in the 12-15 range. 

[eddie83]

Looks like position player wise we are 16th rWAR. 22nd total pitching. 

I think it all highlights things we already know. Terrible starting pitching. How important Schoop and Manny are moving forward.   Overall poor OF mainly due to defense. The trickle down impact of having Trumbo and Davis on the same roster. Having even a defensively flawed Beckham for only a couple of months.

The fact that we have young talent on the position player side is significant. The OF needs to be rebuilt and we may have the players to do that in time. I don't really care how many we have in the top 5 or not- not that it is meaningless. We have too many negatives like Davis, Trumbo and JJ. It isn't like we lack young talent, the question is whether Manny and Schoop will stay around. 

It would be nice to move a Trumbo. Trey could still play out there some but also play some 1st and DH. A place like this gets it but on some levels the OF defense is still the most underreported issue on the team. Trey has been better than I thought but all 3 spots are below average at best. Hays should be better than Smith with any kind of offense since his glove should be much better.

Nexy year having Beckham all year and Hays instead of Smith should be a big boost. 

Starting pitching revolves around Gausman and needing at least one new pitcher to step up. It is hard to put into words just how bad some of our starters have been. 

[mdbdotcom]

When your designated leaders in pitching (Tillman) and hitting (Davis) don't show up for the season, I think it impacts every part of the game. If Chris and Chris had performed even close to expectations, the overall outcome could have been very different. Success breeds success. The opposite is also true.

Their terrible performances make it difficult to judge the team overall.