How many Rule 5 eligible players will the O's protect?

[wildcard]

I always have a problem with the answer to this question.   I overestimate.   So I  want to hear from you.

Here are some candidates:

1) Hunter Harvey - No brainer

2) David  Hess - O's are desperate for starters and he was one of their best at AA.

3) Lucas Long - Swingman at Bowie has potential to be the same in the majors.

4) Austin Wynns - Pena just opted for minor league free agency making Wynns the third  catcher in the O's organization if Castillo opts out

5) Steve Wilkerson - Utility man doing well in the  AZ fall league.

6) Luis Gonzalez  - This guy was not even on my radar.  But in the AZ league he is pitching well and he is a lefty reliever with good stuff who had a good year at Frederick.   He could get claimed.

7) John Means - Lefty starter at Bowie last year.   Lefty starters are hard to come by.

Two guys that I have had on my list but you guys have talked me out of are:

Matt Wotherspoon - Who was effective at AAA last year but is not a hard throwing reliever. Acquired with international slot money.

Ademar Rifaela -  MVP of the Carolina League.  But you are telling me that he would never last a whole year in the majors if picked. 

Here is what Steve Melewski has to say about it.  http://www.masnsports.com/steve-melewski/2017/10/os-list-of-rule-5-eligible-players-includes-pitcher-pat-connaughton.html

So right now I am at 7.  

What do you think?

 

 

[glenn__davis]

Without really being in tune with the 40-man right now, I don't think we protect Gonzalez or Means.  I think Harvey and Wynns are pretty close to locks.  The remaining 3 I think you can make a case for but just not sure where the Orioles are going to go with them.  

[Richmond Bird 9]

I thing looking at some numbers will help. We will have 10 pending F/A and I am counting Welington Castillo as a F/A. I also see a possible of 3 more players that could be traded or sold (Mike Wright-no options-, Jesus Liranzo and Stefan Crichton. I would take a player that does not need to be protected  on the 40 man roster. 

That would leave 13 spots open, which would allow them to protect a bubble player or two. I would protect Ademar Rifaela for at least one year. He was mentored by Jonathan Schoop and he is a F/A after 2019 (penny wise and pound foolish).

[wildcard]

47 minutes ago, Richmond Bird 9 said:

I thing looking at some numbers will help. We will have 10 pending F/A and I am counting Welington Castillo as a F/A. I also see a possible of 3 more players that could be traded or sold (Mike Wright-no options-, Jesus Liranzo and Stefan Crichton. I would take a player that does not need to be protected  on the 40 man roster. 

That would leave 13 spots open, which would allow them to protect a bubble player or two. I would protect Ademar Rifaela for at least one year. He was mentored by Jonathan Schoop and he is a F/A after 2019 (penny wise and pound foolish).

I think the O's will protect Liranzo and maybe Crichton but if they need 40 man roster slots later in the off season they could be DFA'd.  Wright is a big question mark to me.  I think the O's will like to give him a chance in ST but he is on the bubble.

[Aristotelian]

Don't know anything about Rifaela's defense but his bat looked to be coming on last year. Maybe a stretch for another team to carry but I would not want to lose him. He would be our version of Santander.

[weams]

3 hours ago, wildcard said:

I always have a problem with the answer to this question.   I overestimate.   So I  want to hear from you.

Here are some candidates:

1) Hunter Harvey - No brainer

2) Davis  Hess - O's are desperate for starters and he was one of their best at AA.

3) Lucas Long - Swingman at Bowie has potential to be the same in the majors.

4) Austin Wynns - Pena just opted for minor league free agency making Wynns the third  catcher in the O's organization if Castillo opts out

5) Steve Wilkerson - Utility man doing well in the  AZ fall league.

6) Luis Gonzalez  - This guy was not even on my radar.  But in the AZ league he is pitching well and he is a lefty reliever with good stuff who had a good year at Frederick.   He could get claimed.

7) John Means - Lefty starter at Bowie last year.   Lefty starters are hard to come by.

Two guys that I have had on my list but you guys have talked me out of are:

Matt Wotherspoon - Who was effective at AAA last year but is not a hard throwing reliever. Acquired is international slot money.

Ademar Rifaela -  MVP of the Carolina League.  But you are telling me that he would never last a whole year in the majors if picked. 

Here is what Steve Melewski has to say about it.  http://www.masnsports.com/steve-melewski/2017/10/os-list-of-rule-5-eligible-players-includes-pitcher-pat-connaughton.html

So right now I am at 7.  

What do you think?

 

 

Maybe three. Four at max.

[weams]

Harvey, Hess and Wynns. Maybe Long

[Richmond Bird 9]

1 hour ago, Aristotelian said:

Don't know anything about Rifaela's defense but his bat looked to be coming on last year. Maybe a stretch for another team to carry but I would not want to lose him. He would be our version of Santander.

If the O's do not protect Rifaela and he is drafted in the rule 5 draft and then we let Manny walk. I do not think it helps us in keeping Schoop after 2019. 

[Jammer7]

Harvey, Hess, Wynns for sure. Maybe Gonzalez. Rifaela had a fine season in Frederick, but I don’t see him being protected. I do not see any way he would stick on any team’s 25 man roster all season. 

[Luke-OH]

On 10/23/2017 at 12:18 PM, Aristotelian said:

Don't know anything about Rifaela's defense but his bat looked to be coming on last year. Maybe a stretch for another team to carry but I would not want to lose him. He would be our version of Santander.

Rifaela isn't the prospect Santander was when drafted.  His defense is solid, although he's doesn't have the tools to be an asset in the field.  What the Orioles did with Santander is almost unprecedented.  I wouldn't want to lose Rifaela either, he has a chance to be something if he can shorten his swing and keep the power, but the chances of him getting picked and carried compared to Long, Hess, Wynns, or Means is slim (Harvey would be picked at carried 100% chance).  Wynns can be a defensive minded back-up for a non-competitive team.  Long, Hess, and Means could get stuck in the bullpen as middle relief and make it through the season pretty easily.  Rifaela would be an extra outfielder who isn't particularly fast, isn't a defensive replacement, can't play center, and is still pretty raw at the plate and probably needs mechanical changes to ever be able to hit MLB pitching.

[Legend_Of_Joey]

So far, without too much thinking on my part, I have a list of 7 that could be 40'ed. Maybe 9, depending on somethings.

Harvey, Wynns, Wilkerson, Hess, Gonzalez (Luis, not Jay), Means, and Long. Rifaela and Dosch are on the outside.

Harvey is as big of a lock as there is.

Wynns is another lock in my opinion, because he has MLB defense and can hit a bit, plus the safety net of Pena has elected for free agency.

Wilkerson is another lock in my opinion, as he can play almost anywhere and can hit along with having speed and small ball potential. He is doing fantastic in the AFL with 3 triples already and solid defense. He can play 3rd and 2nd very well, so Machado or Schoop can slide to short if needbe while still having those spots covered.

Hess, Means, and Long all get grouped up a bit. All have 5th spot or bullpen potential, with Means having the extra advantage of being a lefty. Pitchers are easy to stash for teams and these 3 would be good choices. Not "top of rotation" guys or the next Britton, but useful arms.

Gonzalez is a lefty with good stuff. He was in Frederick this year and will probably be in Bowie next year. He is someone else that could just be gotten and stashed. He is holding his own in the AFL right now, with a 0.00 ERA. Stefan Crichton did the same thing last year and got a 40 spot. He's not entirely a LOCK, but if there a lot of open spots, protecting him might be worth it for the future as he could turn out to be a back end starter.

Rifaela is on the bubble, but probably shouldn't be protected. Philly is right about him not being in the same league as Santander. While Rifaela put up some great numbers (imagine how much better it would look without Mountcastle or Hays), he still has a ways to go. His swing is still wild but he has quick enough hands to adjust mid swing. His defense is ok, but with the glut of other outfielders, especially ones with better hitting and defense, he's not that vital. Now, Schoop might put in a word to put him on the 40 and re-sign his own brother, but that might be the only way he gets on there.

Dosch is another outsider. He would be a decent 3rd baseman on a team that just needs a cheap stopgap, but nothing screams "must have." He is still a year or two behind in development anyway after losing time to a serious leg injury around draft time, but has been making strides. If the Orioles do protect him, you could see a serious uptick in Machado trade rumors. A good season in Norfolk though might change the story for next December though.

[wildcard]

6 hours ago, Legend_Of_Joey said:

So far, without too much thinking on my part, I have a list of 7 that could be 40'ed. Maybe 9, depending on somethings.

Harvey, Wynns, Wilkerson, Hess, Gonzalez (Luis, not Jay), Means, and Long. Rifaela and Dosch are on the outside.

Harvey is as big of a lock as there is.

Wynns is another lock in my opinion, because he has MLB defense and can hit a bit, plus the safety net of Pena has elected for free agency.

Wilkerson is another lock in my opinion, as he can play almost anywhere and can hit along with having speed and small ball potential. He is doing fantastic in the AFL with 3 triples already and solid defense. He can play 3rd and 2nd very well, so Machado or Schoop can slide to short if needbe while still having those spots covered.

Hess, Means, and Long all get grouped up a bit. All have 5th spot or bullpen potential, with Means having the extra advantage of being a lefty. Pitchers are easy to stash for teams and these 3 would be good choices. Not "top of rotation" guys or the next Britton, but useful arms.

Gonzalez is a lefty with good stuff. He was in Frederick this year and will probably be in Bowie next year. He is someone else that could just be gotten and stashed. He is holding his own in the AFL right now, with a 0.00 ERA. Stefan Crichton did the same thing last year and got a 40 spot. He's not entirely a LOCK, but if there a lot of open spots, protecting him might be worth it for the future as he could turn out to be a back end starter.

Rifaela is on the bubble, but probably shouldn't be protected. Philly is right about him not being in the same league as Santander. While Rifaela put up some great numbers (imagine how much better it would look without Mountcastle or Hays), he still has a ways to go. His swing is still wild but he has quick enough hands to adjust mid swing. His defense is ok, but with the glut of other outfielders, especially ones with better hitting and defense, he's not that vital. Now, Schoop might put in a word to put him on the 40 and re-sign his own brother, but that might be the only way he gets on there.

Dosch is another outsider. He would be a decent 3rd baseman on a team that just needs a cheap stopgap, but nothing screams "must have." He is still a year or two behind in development anyway after losing time to a serious leg injury around draft time, but has been making strides. If the Orioles do protect him, you could see a serious uptick in Machado trade rumors. A good season in Norfolk though might change the story for next December though.

I don't see anything about Dosch that says he is likely to be claimed.  He didn't hit or field well enough last year to make me think he could stay in the majors all year.

The rest of your post pretty much agrees with what I wrote.   So I agree.

[Luke-OH]

2 hours ago, wildcard said:

I don't see anything about Dosch that says he is likely to be claimed.  He didn't hit or field well enough last year to make me think he could stay in the majors all year.

The rest of your post pretty much agrees with what I wrote.   So I agree.

He had a .737 OPS in Norfolk, Mancini had a .776 OPS in Norfolk last year.

I agree that he probably won’t be claimed, but he’s got a decent bat. Just a bit too much swing and miss without a lot of power to profile at 3B with below average defense.  I mean I don’t think he’d embarrass a major league team at third, he’s just not starter caliber and doesn’t have the skills you want in a bench player. 

Not that you can predict the late bloomer types, but I wouldn’t be shocked if Dosch carved out a small MLB career at some point.

[wildcard]

18 minutes ago, phillyOs119 said:

He had a .737 OPS in Norfolk, Mancini had a .776 OPS in Norfolk last year.

I agree that he probably won’t be claimed, but he’s got a decent bat. Just a bit too much swing and miss without a lot of power to profile at 3B with below average defense.  I mean I don’t think he’d embarrass a major league team at third, he’s just not starter caliber and doesn’t have the skills you want in a bench player. 

Not that you can predict the late bloomer types, but I wouldn’t be shocked if Dosch carved out a small MLB career at some point.

Mancini had a 826 OPS on the road in AAA.  Harbor Park is a terrible place to hit.  Dosch didn't hit well anywhere once he got to AAA.

[mrpennybags]

Nice write-up. Just on a casual glance, your first four seem likely and the other three less so.