Six pitchers who improved dramatically on dismal 2016 seasons

[Babypowder]

On 11/3/2017 at 5:41 PM, tntoriole said:

I disagree.  And you likely would have had him at Norfolk most of 2017 for the same reasons.  

Nope, he would have been my DH because I wouldn't have signed Trumbo.

[Beef Supreme]

On Thursday, November 2, 2017 at 6:34 PM, SteveA said:

Hishashi Iwakuma was hurt most of the year (shoulder) for Seattle and they declined a team option on him today.

Does he have anything left in the tank at age 37 next year?

He'd probably come quite cheap.

Love it. If Iwakuma passes the physical, sign him right away.

Other candidates for an improved 2018 amongst the 5.00+ ERA class of 2017?

Hate to say it but Jeremy Hellickson (free agent). He might be the only one available with what I think is a chance for a good 2018 season.

You'd have to work out trades for these pitchers: Jason Hammel (under contract through 2018).  Maybe even Ian Kennedy (chose not to opt out of KC contract). Mike Fiers (arb elegible through 2019). Robert Gsellman (if the Mets decide to trade him). Biagini (one more year of team control before three arb years). Matt Moore (Giants picked up option).

I can't see the Orioles signing Hellickson, but I could see them signing Iwakuma.

[Babypowder]

13 hours ago, Beef Supreme said:

Love it. If Iwakuma passes the physical, sign him right away.

Other candidates for an improved 2018 amongst the 5.00+ ERA class of 2017?

Hate to say it but Jeremy Hellickson (free agent). He might be the only one available with what I think is a chance for a good 2018 season.

You'd have to work out trades for these pitchers: Jason Hammel (under contract through 2018).  Maybe even Ian Kennedy (chose not to opt out of KC contract). Mike Fiers (arb elegible through 2019). Robert Gsellman (if the Mets decide to trade him). Biagini (one more year of team control before three arb years). Matt Moore (Giants picked up option).

I can't see the Orioles signing Hellickson, but I could see them signing Iwakuma.

Hellickson is toast. He's got absolutely nothing anymore.

[Babypowder]

3 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

I"m curious when I see statements like this.   Hellickson will be 31 next year.   He put up a 2.9 WAR with Philly in 2016.   He was bad last year.   How are you so sure that he's toast?    Are there some statistics that shows he lost 5 mph off his fastball between 2016 and 2017?

While there is nothing in the velocity screaming, his K/9 dropped over 2 between 2016 and 2017. K% dropped from 20 to 13. FIP from 3.98 to 5.77. He just had the worst year of his career by a lot, while actually allowing a BABIP well under recent established levels.

The slop he's throwing up there is no longer fooling anyone.

[Babypowder]

1 minute ago, RZNJ said:

I'm just playing devil's advocate here.   You are suggesting that after 8 years and 6 full seasons in the big leagues that hitters just caught up with Hellickson's repertoire last year?     That doesn't really make sense.    Either his stuff or command was off last year.   If he's healthy, I would think it's something he might be able to fix.  He did give up the most homers (35) in his career by a pretty wide margin but his WHIP (1.262) was pretty much in line with his career (1.252).    He might be toast.   I  just wouldn't be too sure about it unless there is something you can put your finger on.

Contact is the thing I'm putting my finger on. All of a sudden allowing so much contact is a huge red flag to me.

[Babypowder]

Just now, RZNJ said:

And you know that it isn't something he can correct?   Maybe he didn't have his curveball working last year.   Maybe his changeup wasn't the same.  Perhaps there is a mechanical reason.   Perhaps not.    I just don't think it's a sure thing that he's toast.    Is Tillman toast?

Yes, I think so. I don't think he's healthy and if over 2 seasons his shoulder hasn't gotten healthy, I don't think it will this offseason either.

As for Hellickson, I suppose he can fix it, by pitch values his changeup got hammered while it has usually been his best pitch. Strikeout dropoffs that severe aren't usually good signs going forward, however.

There is also bias here because I don't like watching him, and all other guys throwing slop up to the plate that can't strike people out, pitch.

[Frobby]

2 hours ago, RZNJ said:

I'm just playing devil's advocate here.   You are suggesting that after 8 years and 6 full seasons in the big leagues that hitters just caught up with Hellickson's repertoire last year?     That doesn't really make sense.    Either his stuff or command was off last year.   If he's healthy, I would think it's something he might be able to fix.  He did give up the most homers (35) in his career by a pretty wide margin but his WHIP (1.262) was pretty much in line with his career (1.252).    He might be toast.   I  just wouldn't be too sure about it unless there is something you can put your finger on.

The longer I watch baseball, the less confident I am about predicting how anyone will do.   I don’t want Hellickson back, but I can’t say for sure that he’s toast.